NBA DFS Preview – First Look (3/3)

Thursday’s seven-game NBA DFS slate features the return of Kevin Durant, while a few more star players are either out or listed as questionable.

Be sure to pay attention to news throughout the day and, as always, check out the FTN NBA Optimizer. 

NBA Vegas Data for March 3 | NBA DFS First Look

Chicago Bulls @ Atlanta Hawks

CHI -1, total: 232.5
Pace: CHI (14th), ATL (16th)

Situations to monitor:

• Trae Young (ankle) is listed as questionable for the Hawks. Meanwhile, John Collins is once again doubtful, while Onyeka Okongwu was placed in the concussion protocol and is out.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Boston Celtics

BOS -1, total: 223.5
Pace: MEM (2nd), BOS (20th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jaylen Brown has been ruled out with an ankle injury.
• Dillon Brooks will remain sidelined for Memphis.

Miami Heat @ Brooklyn Nets

MIA -2.5, total: 221.5
Pace: MIA (30th), BKN (7th)

• Kevin Durant will make his return Thursday, his first game since Jan. 15. Andre Drummond is listed as probable for Brooklyn.
• Kyle Lowry remains out due to personal reasons.

Detroit Pistons @ Toronto Raptors

TOR -8.5, total: 217.5
Pace: DET (9th), TOR (23rd)

Situations to monitor:

• Fred VanVleet remains on the injury report. He is questionable. OG Anunoby is also listed as questionable.
• Hamidou Diallo (ankle) is listed as probable for Detroit.

Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks

DAL -1.5, total: 219.5
Pace: GSW (10th), DAL (27th)

Situations to monitor:

• Klay Thompson (illness) said he expects to play Thursday. Meanwhile, Damion Lee (quad) is listed as questionable.

Sacramento Kings @ San Antonio Spurs

SAS -6.5, total: 240.5
Pace: SAC (8th), SAS (3rd)

Situations to monitor:

• Richaun Holmes has been dealing with a back injury. He’s listed as questionable.
• Doug McDermott is listed as questionable for San Antonio.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Los Angeles Clippers

LAC -2.5, total: 220.5
Pace: LAL (5th), LAC (12th)

Situations to monitor:

• Talen Horton-Tucker (ankle) is listed as probable.

Matchups to Target | NBA DFS First Look

Jimmy Butler vs. Brooklyn Nets

Butler is coming off an awful game against Milwaukee, shooting 2-of-14 from the field, finishing with just 16.25 fantasy points. However, Butler has struggled against the Bucks very often because they allow you to shoot threes but really defend the rim, which doesn’t bode well for his game. Still, I like him a lot Thursday, facing a much weaker Brooklyn defense. Butler’s price is very comfortable across the industry and if Kyle Lowry remains out, the usage and responsibility will only increase. With Lowry off the floor this season, Butler is sporting a 26.5% usage rate to go along with a 21% rebounding rate and 19% assist rate. He faces a Brooklyn team allowing the second-most isolation points per game in basketball (8.1), while Butler is averaging 3.0 points per game off the play type.

Gary Trent vs. Detroit Pistons

Trent is in a very favorable spot, facing a poor Pistons defense. He becomes an even better play if Fred VanVleet and/or OG Anunoby remain out of the lineup, but we know Trent’s minutes are solidified regardless, as he’s averaging just under 35 per game over the course of the season. Trent is averaging 2.0 points per game off screens this season, while shooting an insane 50.6% from the field off the play type. That bodes extremely well for him against a Detroit team that is coughing up the second-most points per possession (1.12) and second-highest field goal percentage (46.4%) off the play type. 

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Trey Lyles vs. SAS — I know, I know. Lyles disappointed Wednesday, scoring just 11 fantasy points in 20 minutes. However, if he remains in the Sacramento starting lineup, I’d go right back to him, especially if more value doesn’t open up on this slate. If 20 minutes is his floor, there is still plenty of potential as a value play.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

Malcolm Brogdon (65.25)
Terry Rozier (56.75)
Franz Wagner (43.)
KJ Martin (37.25)
Christian Wood (57.0)
Donovan Mitchell (61.0)
Aleksej Pokusevski (35.25)
Isaiah Roby (51.75)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Donovan Mitchell (57.4)
Jrue Holiday (50.7)
Malcolm Brogdon (64.2)
Terry Rozier (56.9)
KJ Martin (36.4)
Jae Crowder (41)
Isaiah Roby (52.9)
Christian Wood (57.5)
Rudy Gobert (55.9)