NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Tuesday’s six-game NBA DFS slate definitely isn’t my favorite, and I highly doubt it’ll be as high-scoring as Monday’s was. Let’s take an early look at the action.
Be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer.
NBA Vegas Data for March 1 | NBA DFS First Look
Detroit Pistons @ Washington Wizards
WAS -3, total: 216
Pace: DET (9th), WAS (23rd)
Situations to monitor:
- Kristaps Porzingis still won’t make his Washington debut.
- For Detroit, Hamidou Diallo is listed as doubtful with a sprained ankle.
Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics
BOS -7, total: 226.5
Pace: ATL (16th), BOS (23rd)
Situations to monitor:
- John Collins (foot) is listed as doubtful for Atlanta. Danilo Gallinari has been starting at power forward in his absence.
Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors
TOR -8.5, total: 218.5
Pace: BKN (12th), TOR (27th)
Situations to monitor:
- Kyrie Irving will once again be unavailable for Brooklyn. Andre Drummond suffered an injury Monday but did return.
- For Toronto, OG Anunoby will remain out. Fred VanVleet missed Monday’s game and is listed as questionable once again.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Houston Rockets
LAC -7, total: 229.5
Pace: LAC (12th), HOU (1st)
Situations to monitor:
- Kevin Porter missed Sunday’s game with an ankle injury. He is listed as questionable for Tuesday. Garrison Matthews is also questionable with an ankle sprain.
Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves
GSW -1, total: 232
Pace: GSW (11th), MIN (3rd)
Situations to monitor:
- Klay Thompson has once again been ruled out with an illness.
Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Lakers
DAL -5.5, total: 216.5
Pace: DAL (29th), LAL (2nd)
Situations to monitor:
- Anthony Davis remains sidelined for Los Angeles, while LeBron James is listed as questionable, though he’ll likely play. Austin Reaves is listed as probable.
Matchups to Target | NBA DFS First Look
Jayson Tatum vs. Atlanta Hawks
I really like both Tatum and teammate Jaylen Brown in this game. Atlanta’s defense has been pretty bad for most of the season, and without John Collins, I doubt it gets any better. Tatum has been a bit up-and-down as of late, but the volume is there, attempting at least 20 shots in each of his last three games. He is also averaging 2.0 points per game off screens this season, tied for 14th in the NBA, which could bode well for him against a Hawks team that is coughing up the second-most points per game (5.3), the most points per possession (1.16) and highest field goal percentage (48%) to opposing players off screens. Brown, meanwhile, is averaging 2.4 points per game off screens on the year, good for the seventh-most in all of basketball, while shooting an impressive 46.2% off the play type. Both Tatum and Brown are on my radar.
Ivica Zubac vs. Houston Rockets
Zubac is coming off a stellar game against this same Houston team, scoring 14 points to go along with 15 rebounds, three assists and a whopping six blocks. While the blocks aren’t likely to be repeated, Zubac’s overall opportunity has been much better since the trade of Serge Ibaka. In fact, since Ibaka was traded to Milwaukee, Zubac is averaging 1.21 fantasy points per minute, while also sporting a 38% rebounding rate and near 20% usage rate. He’s logged at least 30 minutes in three of the six games during that stretch, which is massive given how efficient Zubac has been on a per-minute basis.
Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look
Daniel Gafford vs. DET — Even with Thomas Bryant back in the Washington lineup, Gafford has been starting at center. He’s logged 29 and 24 minutes in the first two games out of the All-Star break, and because the Wizards don’t want to give Bryant massive minutes, 23-27 should be in play for Gafford, who is averaging 1.04 fantasy points per minute to go along with a 29% rebounding rate this season.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
DraftKings optimal lineup
De’Aaron Fox (56.5)
Cedi Osman (32.75)
Scottie Barnes (65.5)
Kevin Love (41.75)
Precious Achiuwa (36.5)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (67.25)
Trey Lyles (34.5)
Ja Morant (63.75)
FanDuel optimal lineup
De’Aaron Fox (56.8)
Brandon Goodwin (44.8)
Malachi Flynn (36.3)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (64.4)
Scottie Barnes (66.2)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (69.2)
Trey Lyles (33.2)
Kevin Love (39.0)
Steven Adams (41.3)
