Bowl Slate Preview (Dec. 20)

The college football playoffs start Friday, and the inaugural 12-team supplies us with plenty of betting opportunities. We have the Indiana Hoosiers taking on the Irish of Notre Dame later, but first the Gasparilla Bowl takes place.

We will break down each of those games with a focus on DFS as well as a betting perspective. Let’s get into it.

Gasparilla Bowl

Tulane vs. Florida

The Florida Gators got off to a rough start to the season but managed to finish 7-5 to qualify for bowl eligibility. Injuries to Graham Mertz and Eugene Wilson didn’t hurt the team as much as most people expected, either. True freshman QB DJ Lagway has flashed moments of brilliance throughout the year, but it wasn’t without growing pains obviously.

In 11 games, he threw for 1,600 yards and 11 TDs with 7 INTs. He also has more rushing upside than his game logs would suggest. They have a strong rushing attack with Montrell Johnson (593 yards), Jadan Baugh (603) and Ja’Kobi Jackson (452) getting carries. Elijhah Badger (37-789-4) and Chimere Dike (36-687-2) are Lagway’s top options in the passing game.

The Gators haven’t won a bowl game since their 2019 victory over Virginia in the Orange Bowl. They have opt-outs and transfers like everybody else, but the majority of their core remains intact.

Tulane isn’t as lucky as Florida in that regard as their QB1 Darian Mensah has transferred to Duke, and they’ll also be without some of their top defensive options as well. Ty Thompson will get the start at QB despite hitting the transfer portal as well. The former 5-star recruit is known more for his rushing ability so it’s unknown how he will fare as a passer in a full game.

Top rusher Makhi Hughes has a difficult matchup ahead, and I’m concerned he won’t be all that effective anyway as the Gators defense has been stout against the run. There probably isn’t any real threat that he sits out due to being an underclassman, but we will keep an eye out for any relevant news as usual.

The receiving options include Mario Williams (54-940-5), Yulkeith Brown (34-470-4) and Dontae Fleming (30-585-1). Watch out for Shazz Preston as well. He has scored a touchdown in two of their last four games and has proven to be a very dangerous deep threat option.

Ultimately, I have no real faith in Ty Thompson or the Tulane passing game here, and I believe Florida will treat this game as a way to springboard into next season with much higher expectations. I like the Gators to win outright and over 49.5 total points.

DFS Targets

DJ Lagway
Florida RBs (priority order of Jadan Baugh, Ja’Kobi Jackson, Montrell Johnson)
Elijhah Badger
Chimere Dike
Mario Wiliams
Shazz Preston

Best Bet

Over 49.5 Total Points (-112, DraftKings)
DJ Lagway Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-122, FanDuel)

CFB Playoff First Round

Indiana vs. Notre Dame

What a treat for CFB fans in the state of Indiana. The Hoosiers take on the Irish in the first round of the expanded playoff field, and there will be plenty of eyeballs on this game. Since this is a playoff game and not a glorified exhibition, we can expect both programs to have their full arsenal of players available.

There are snow flurries happening already at Notre Dame Stadium, so the running game is going to be uber important, which obviously benefits the Irish a great deal. A disciplined team that thrives on physicality on the line and they have multiple players capable of making things happen with their legs.

The Week 2 upset loss to NIU is a distant memory at this point, and the decision to turn Riley Leonard loose clearly saved their season. The dual-threat extraordinaire has rushed for 721 yards and 14 touchdowns. But he isn’t a one-trick pony and has been a sound passer with a 66.2% competition rate and over 2,000 yards through the air along with 16 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. His efficiency and ability to limit mistakes has been paramount to their success.

Running back Jeremiyah Love was injured in their win over USC but has been given a clean bill of health for this matchup and will get plenty of volume. He has racked up 949 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground. He’s also been a dangerous pass-catcher out of the backfield with 22 receptions for 206 yards/2 TDs. Jadarian Price is a fantastic RB2 and would likely start on lots of other programs across the country. He torched USC for 111 yards on 12 carries after Love went down with an injury. He has 651 yards and 7 TDs on the season.

The Irish have a deep group of receivers but none of them really stand out. TE Mitchell Evans is a nice look for DFS purposes at near min-price and has caught a touchdown in three of his last four games.

The Hoosiers thrive when pushing the pace and keeping opposing defenses on their heels. Kurtis Rourke has had a great season with 2,827 passing yards 27 TDs to just 4 INTs, but he has historically struggled against upper tier competition throughout his career. That was prevalent in games against Michigan and Ohio State recently.

Elijah Sarratt (49-890-8) is Rourke’s favorite weapon, and it will be interesting to see how the Hoosiers coaching staff schemes to get him the ball against such a tough defensive unit. Ke’Shawn Williams (34-403-5) and Omar Cooper (27-571-6) have shown game breaking upside but may be tamed by the snowy conditions on the field.

Indiana may have to lean into their running game, which means a heavy dose of Justice Ellison (811 yards) and Ty Son Lawton (634 yards). Ellison is extremely valuable in short yardage and red zone situations. He is built for this environment and is a sneaky DFS play with most looking to ignore Indiana aside from Sarratt.

The way Indiana struggled against the aggressive line play of OSU and Michigan makes me think Notre Dame will be dominant in the trenches. In order to have a shot at an upset, they’ll need to show they can match the physicality of their opponent and establish a running game that can keep the Notre Dame offense off the field as much as possible.

That said, I’m extremely confident in the Irish to advance to the next round. The Riley Leonard-Jeremiyah Love duo is just too tough, especially in conditions that require you to run the football often.