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Final Four Betting Guide

No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 1 Connecticut

9:20 p.m. ET Monday, Glendale, Ariz.

Spread: Connecticut -6.5
Over/Under: 145.5
TV: TBS

We have the National Championship game we wanted: No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 1 Purdue.

Both teams are perfect against the spread in the tournament. It’s the perfect title game finale.

Connecticut is the defending national champions and are now the seventh-best college basketball team against the spread, holding a 27-12 (69.2%) ATS record. UConn covered the 11.5-point spread against Alabama in the Final Four, outlasting the Crimson Tide by a score of 86-72. The Huskies have also been superb as a betting favorite, currently 27-11 (71.1%) ATS.

Purdue has been a strong team to back as well, holding a 21-15-2 (58.2%) ATS record, including a perfect 2-0 ATS as an underdog. Center Zach Edey was just named the AP Player of the Year for the second straight year, as has been brilliant in the tournament, averaging 28 points and 15.4 rebounds per game.

The key to this matchup is the lack of elite competition for Purdue in the tournament. They faced Grambling State, Utah State, Gonzaga, Tennessee and NC State. Grambling State and Utah State were the easiest two games for any No. 1 seed. Gonzaga was well-below their normal level of play, and the Boilermakers faced a Tennessee team at a huge disadvantage with an ineffective Santiago Vescovi battling the flu. In the Final Four, they faced an overachieving NC State team with no depth and limited offensive ability. The Boilermakers rely heavily on Edey’s scoring to generate offense, especially early in the game. I don’t see that happening against UConn, which will put pressure on the Boilermakers guards to find points early in the first half.

Connecticut will be the biggest challenge Purdue has faced all season. The Huskies offense is almost unstoppable as a result of fantastic balance. The Huskies have four players averaging over 13 PPG with eight players averaging 12 MPG or more. In the Final Four matchup with Alabama, the Crimson decided to let freshman Stephon Castle have open shots, and he responded with 21 points and seven rebounds.

As great as UConn is on offense (81.4 PPG), its defense is extremely underrated. The Huskies rank fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency, third in effective field goal percentage allowed and second in 2P percentage allowed. Their numbers have actually improved during the tournament, despite playing elite competition.

Connecticut has been so dominant that I’m backing the Huskies one final time. They have won their four tournament games by an average of 25 PPG and won last year’s National Championship by 17 points. Purdue’s entire offense is based around the scoring success of Edey, but UConn has the depth with Donovan Clingan and Samson Johnson to provide resistance on the interior that Purdue hasn’t faced all tournament. The Huskies covers in Monday’s night’s season finale, earning Connecticut a back-to-back championship.

The Pick

Connecticut -6.5