With the NCAA college basketball in full swing, we get full DFS slates to analyze every day. There’s a five-game slate on DraftKings Wednesday starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Below, I’m looking at my DFS angles for the Wednesday slate up and down the price pool.
Providence vs. Butler
Providence -1; implied total 137
The story for Butler continues to be the health of their best player and lead guard Aaron Thompson, who is trying to work his way back from a knee injury. If he’s ruled out again, then all Butler players become live. I’ll first look to Bryce Nze ($6,800). Even after being priced up, I feel he is still a tad underpriced, especially with Thompson out of the lineup. Freshman Chuck Harris ($6,400) had the green light last game with a 32% usage rate, and with Thompson out I am interested, even at the inflated price. Value guys like Bryce Golden ($5,000) and Myles Tate ($4,400) would be in play again and have a good chance at 4x with the extra minutes and usage. Overall, I really don’t want too much exposure to this game as it’s most likely going to be a grind, the Vegas total agrees and has been steamed down to 133. Providence on the other hand look to be over priced after their high-scoring overtime win against Seton Hall. Nate Watson ($7,600) is too risky to play in cash; I would only fire him in GPPs. I have a crush on David Duke ($7,900), but don’t think this is the right matchup for him and rather see him in the mid-$7,000 range. Jared Bynum ($5,600) has been playing well lately and gradually seeing his usage increase. He’s currently 1-20 from three so positive regression is inevitable.
Illinois vs. Penn State
Illinois -2; implied total 152
I really like this spot for the Illini coming off a road loss to my Rutgers squad. This Penn State team is talented but WILD, and it seems like interim head coach Jim Ferry has just given the guards unlimited freedom to do whatever they want and chuck three pointers. Or maybe they just don’t care. Anyway – Ayo Dosumnu ($9,500) should have a field day, get him in your lineup if you can fit him. Penn State is terrible at protecting the rim so Kofi Cockburn ($8,000) will be in play. He rarely has good back-to-back performances and I always seem to get him wrong, but he always has slate breaking upside. Illini value guys are definitely in play but Andre Curbelo ($5,400) would be my favorite after laying a dud against Rutgers and losing some price. I’m not really interested in any of the Nittany Lions — Myreon Jones ($6,100) is their guy and has shot the ball poorly to start the season, so I can see some positive regression coming. Seth Lundy ($5,900) is priced down and has massive upside if he gets hot, I do think his early ceiling performances were outliers though. If you’re a contrarian type of player then maybe playing John Harrar ($4,600) going up against Cockburn could be fun at this price.
Villanova vs. Marquette
Villanova -3; implied total 141
Marquette has been awful defensively this year, letting shooters light them up on a nightly basis and ranking 191st in the country defending the 3-point line. That sounds like a recipe for disaster going against Jay Wright’s well-oiled super-efficient 4-out motion offense. Marquette also doesn’t have the luxury of Markus Howard dropping 40 to keep them in the game anymore, so it may be a long night for the Eagles. Villanova is super balanced so it’s hard to fully get behind any one guy in particular, but I will be looking both Jeremiah Robinson-Earl ($8,100) and Collin Gillespie ($7,800). I also like Jermaine Samuels ($5,700) as this may be the lowest we see him priced all year. He may be the safest play on the slate. With Symir Torrence back, I am off DJ Carton. But I do have some interest in Koby McEwen ($6,200), who has historically played well against Villanova, and Justin Lewis ($5,200), whose playing time has gradually been increasing.
Northwestern vs. Indiana
Indiana -7; implied total 137
I definitely did not expect Northwestern to dominate Michigan State the way they did Sunday. I am going to chalk that up as an outlier performance and think they come down to earth here against an Indiana team that ranks out pretty impressively looking at the advanced metrics. Northwestern doesn’t have anyone who can guard Trayce Jackson-Davis ($9,000) so I am going to try and fit him in my lineups where I can. Aljami Durham ($5,500) is still underpriced coming off an injury and both Race Thompson ($6,100) and Armaan Franklin ($6,300) have had good starts to the season and are in play. Northwestern guys are too overpriced for me — I would only play Boo Buie ($7,200), since the entire offense runs through him and of course, he does have a really cool name.
Depaul vs. Western Illinois
Depaul -22; implied total 142
This may be the most fun game on the slate in the late hammer as Western Illinois plays an up-tempo style and almost literally no defense (337th in the country in defensive efficiency). Depaul has had the absolute worst luck in the country for COVID-19 shutdowns, so this will actually be their first game of the season. They have a ton of new faces and most likely will be super sloppy since its their first game of the year – so tread lightly. But picking the right Depaul guys will most likely bink the GPP. The alpha of the team will continue to be Charlie Moore ($8,300) — he ranked fourth in the Big East in minutes last year, fifth in usage and second in assist rate. Valpo transfer Javon Freeman-Liberty ($7,700) comes in to provide another scoring threat along side Moore after the departure of Paul Reed. JFL shot an awful 28% from 3 last year but is definitely a volume scorer with his 33% shot rate and ability to mix in some other peripheral statistics. Transfers Ray Salnave ($6,000) and Pauly Paulicap ($4,700) — what a name — will be part of the rotation, but hard to predict what their role will be. In a fast-paced game where a lot of blocks and steals can be accumulated, I will definitely will have exposure to Romeo Weems ($6,900) who is expected to take a step forward this year and Nick Ongenda ($4,000) with Jaylen Butz ruled out to start the year. I do have interest in Western Illinois players, but its very hard to predict since it looks like it’s a different player carrying the team on a nightly basis. They all are in play for me since I think Depaul will struggle a bit — my favorite would be former Wake Forest commit and freshman phenom Marcus Watson Jr. ($3,900). He didn’t play last game so I wouldn’t plug him into your lineup until we get confirmation he is playing.
