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Studs

Luka Garza, Iowa ($10,200): This slate is really interesting, because it forces you to make a very difficult decision in either playing a more balanced lineup (there are a lot of guys in the $6,000 range I like) or pay up for one of these studs and attempt to find value (there isn’t a lot). I most likely will be playing multiple lineups using both strategies because I do want exposure to the studs on this slate. We start with Garza, the frontrunner for the Wooden Award. I don’t have to say much about him because I think everyone knows this dude is a walking bucket. He’s hit some bumps in the road — to his standards — only hitting over 40 fantasy-points once in his last five games due to teams throwing a lot of double teams at him. But after reading up on some interviews with Archie Miller, it doesn’t seem like Indiana will be doubling the post and Race Thompson will be getting the defensive assignment on Garza. If that is the case, he is in a prime smash spot. He owned the Hoosiers last year, posting a 38-point, 8-rebound, 4-block performance. Even at this price, Garza could break the slate, so I do want exposure.

Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana ($9,400): Running back this favorable matchup on the Indiana side is stud forward Jackson-Davis. The thing that sticks out to me the most here is Iowa is one of the worst teams in the country in defensive rebounding (ranking 253rd in the country). Iowa is most likely going to sit in a soft zone and first the Hoosiers to jack up threes in this one which will leave a ton of opportunities for Jackson Davis to gobble up offensive rebounds and put backs. He also had a very good game last year against Iowa posting 17 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks and a steal. The matchup doesn’t get much better, he will have upside in the range of 40-plus fantasy points here.

Mid-level

Ron Harper Jr., Rutgers ($6,800): The recent Scarlet Knight struggles has led to me downing a few more beers than I normally do when watching their games, but the good news is that we get all Rutgers players now massively discounted on this slate. I have talked about how the Penn State defense is one you can target against in the Big Ten as it is much softer under interim coach Jim Ferry. I love both the bounce back spot and matchup here for Rutgers to get back on track. We get early-season flamethrower Harper below $7,000, which is an absolute steal, as he’s been in the $8,000 range all season. I am looking for him to be aggressive in this one and should have a big game.

Remy Martin, Arizona State ($6,400): The Sun Devils season has been in a bit of flux as of late after having pretty hefty expectations to start the year. They’ve had to shut down for a few weeks at the end of December due to COVID-19 protocols and are currently on a four-game skid. It’s easy to start to write this team off but let’s not forget how much talent Bobby Hurley has on this team. It all starts with point guard Martin, who came into the year as one of the best point guards in the country. Martin can fill up the stat sheet in all categories and on occasions can put the entire team on his back. We get him priced all the way down in the mid-$6,000 range which is ridiculous considering he found himself around $9,000 all of last year. Arizona has been a little up and down this year and I think the Sun Devils have a good chance to pull this one off at home now that they are healthy. This game has an implied total of 157 so target it with confidence.

Value

Geo Baker, Rutgers ($5,100): I may be biased, but I will be sticking with these priced-down Rutgers guys in a favorable matchup against the Nittany Lions. I’ve said this many times before, but Baker is hands down Rutgers’ best and most important player; they go as he goes. If you’re taking the side that Rutgers performs well and turns things around here, Baker will have to have a big performance. He is super-cheap here at $5,100 where he normally should fall in the mid-$6,000 range. He is my favorite value play on the slate.

Keegan Murray, Iowa ($4,800): As I enter the $4,000 range for this slate, I cringe at all the names I don’t want to play. Value is tough to come by this slate and that is why I don’t mind taking a shot here at Iowa’s surprise freshman Keegan Murray. He certainly comes with risk since he only plays around 20 minutes a game, and it just really seems like what mood Fran McCaffrey is in. But Murray has been super productive in the time he’s spent on the court with some eye-pooping numbers like his 30% combined rebounding rate, 9% block rate and 5% steal rate. Iowa may need some help combatting the Indiana frontcourt so I would think McCaffrey may look to use him a bit more. But as always, who knows which way McCaffrey will go, which makes Murray a high-risk/high-reward type of play Thursday.