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Baltimore Orioles Over 4.5 Runs TT

We’re going to go to a play that has been a bit of a cash cow for us over the last week in the Baltimore Orioles team total. This Orioles offense is lethal top to bottom, with Cedric Mullins now batting out of the eight hole. Now, Mullins probably deserves such, given the season he’s having, but that’s a very talented hitter to have at the bottom of the order. The Orioles offense ranks first in ISO, fifth in wRC+, fifth in wOBA and 10th in AVG versus right-handed pitching this season. They’re additionally atop MLB in hard hit rate versus right-handed pitching. Over the last two weeks, the Orioles rank first in ISO, second in wRC+, second in wOBA, third in AVG and first in hard hit rate, within that same split.

Wednesday, they will get Braves rookie right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach, and while the future is bright for the Atlanta right-hander, this feels like the Braves are throwing him into a den of wolves. Schwellenbach only has 110 IP at the minor league level, and after posting an excellent 38.6% strikeout rate in Double-A so far this season, prior to his callup, Schwellenbach has posted just a 20% strikeout rate at the big-league level in his two starts, netting just a 12.1% swinging strike rate, down 5.7% from what he averaged in Double-A. While Schwellenbach doesn’t qualify for statistical rankings, his 53.1% hard hit rate surrendered would be the highest in baseball if he did qualify. As I said, I like the talent, but this is a horrible matchup for the rookie.