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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Washington Nationals (-120) @ San Diego Padres (+100)

(Total 7.5, BetMGM)

For the season, the Nats offense has been slightly below average against right-handed pitchers, but their offense has been heating up with the weather. Over the last 14 days, Washington has a 115 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. They have one of the more disciplined approaches at the dish, as they have the lowest strikeout percentage over that stretch. The Nats simply don’t swing and miss often and have one of the higher zone-contact rates in baseball. Their 49 runs over the last two weeks ranks eighth-most and they’re slashing a solid .274/.320/.451. These numbers don’t blow you away, but they have a great matchup at Petco Park. The FTN model projects a close one, with the Nats scoring just under four runs.

Toeing the rubber for the Pads is 23-year-old rookie Adam Mazur, making his fifth career start in the bigs. The righty has only thrown 36.1 innings above AA, and that includes his 17.1 innings with San Diego. He’s struggled both at the AAA and MLB level in a small sample. Mazur posted a 7.11 ERA and 5.40 FIP in AAA and he hasn’t been much better in the Show, with a 7.27 ERA and a 6.15 FIP. The rookie has had serious issues with control, posting a negative K-BB%, and we know the Nats won’t be helping him out by hacking on pitches outside the zone.

When the rookie departs the Nats will see a struggling Padres bullpen that has posted a 3.98 ERA this season but has struggled over the last two weeks with a 5.63 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. San Diego’s BP has allowed a batting average of over .300. Overuse has definitely been an issue as San Diego has suffered injuries to their top arms, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove. The Pads used five relievers last night and don’t have many fresh arms as we back the Nats to put up some runs this Tuesday night. As always, be sure to use FTN’s Prop Shop to bet the best available lines.

Best Bet

Nationals TT Over 3.5 -130