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MLB Best Bets

Tarik Skubal Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Make sure you shop around for the best number here, but Tarik Skubal has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, and he should face 4-5 hitters with a K rate of at least 21% this season against lefty pitching. Skubal has a K rate of over 30% — he’s hit seven strikeouts in 10 of 18 starts overall, five of the past six. The lone game Skubal didn’t hit seven strikeouts lately was against the Astros, and he’s using his four-seam/changeup mix as the main weapon against righties. The changeup has a 32.9% whiff rate and it leads all of his pitches with 49 strikeouts while six Dodgers have a swinging-strike rate of at least 11.7% against that pitch. This wager also has the highest edge and EV from the FTN Betting Model Friday –

Garrett Crochet Over 7.5 Strikeouts

I’m always a bit concerned about the pitch count for Garrett Crochet suddenly taking a big dip, because the White Sox said a couple of weeks ago they wanted to curtail his workload. However, he’s thrown 88 and 93 pitches in the two starts since then, so until I’m given evidence of a decline, I’ll keep going with the over on his strikeouts. The Pirates have a very poor offense and when they face a lefty, the K rate is 24.7% and that’s the fifth-highest in the league. Crochet will likely get 4-5 hitters with a K rate of over 27% and Crochet is not shy about throwing his fastballs. He uses the four-seam and cutter over 80% of the time and both pitches have a whiff rate of over 30% —

Garrett Crochet, Elevated 99mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/XPrax7bhah
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 6, 2024

Cole Ragans Over 7.5 Strikeouts

I guess we could have called this article the Southpaw Strikeout Special, because I’m chasing a third lefty pitcher with a big strikeout number. The Red Sox have led the league in K rate against lefties for a while now, and we just saw Oakland starter JP Sears rack up 8 strikeouts Wednesday night. Cole Ragans is far more talented and boasts a 29.7% K rate on the year with a 14.8% swinging-strike rate and a 29.5% CSW. I am in slight disagreement with the model since it has Ragans projected for 7.29 strikeouts but Boston has struggled so badly, I think Ragans can get to eight here. He’s racked up a 48.9% whiff rate on his changeup and five Boston hitters have a swinging-strike rate of at least 13.6% against that pitch. If you value recent trends, the Red Sox are flirting with a 37% K rate over the past two weeks against lefties as well.