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MLB Best Bets for Wednesday

Ian Happ Over 1.5 Total Bases

The Guardians have Alex Cobb throwing for them Wednesday. Cobb has pitched one time this year, going 4.2 innings Friday against the Guardians and giving up 5 runs (4 earned) on 9 hits and 1 walk. He only notched one strikeout. Also, crucially, Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase has pitched not on two straight days, not on three straight days, but on four straight days. Basically, on Wednesday, he is the unavailablest unavailable that every unavailabled. Setup man Hunter Gaddis throw 22 pitches Tuesday and has thrown three of the last four days, so he’s likely not going to be able to throw much, if at all. Seventh-inning man Cade Smith threw only 18 pitches Tuesday and was off Monday, but he threw Friday, Saturday and Sunday. So the Guardians have a starting pitcher who can’t be counted on for quality or quantity, and then they have a lot to fill for the rest of the game. That’s going to be a bunch of subpar pitchers running out there.

Meanwhile, Ian Happ hits leadoff for the Cubs, giving him more chances than anyone else, and he’s been hot lately, with 3 home runs in his last five games. Even if he doesn’t get to Cobb (and he very well might), he should have plenty of opportunities Wednesday to feast on the Guardians’ third-tier relievers.

Frankie Montas Under 14.5 Outs Recorded

Frankie Montas has started four games in the last month, recording 14, 13, 15 and 12 outs in those starts. His one start where he hit this over was his Brewers debut, when he gave up 9 hits and 3 runs in 5 innings against the Nationals. That’s Montas’ high mark in the last month. Wednesday, instead of facing a Washington team that has a 94 wRC+ this season, Montas draws the Dodgers and their 115, a number that is artificially low because they have been without Mookie Betts for so long. Now, Betts is back and 4-9 in two games with a home run, and Betts really fills out the Dodgers lineup that now (probably) opens Shohei Ohtani-Betts-Freddie Freeman-Teoscar Hernández-a resurgent Gavin Lux-Will Smith. Expect the Dodgers’ offensive performance to only improve, and expect Frankie Montas to suffer as a result.