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Nico Collins Over 66.5 Receiving Yards

If we’re going to play the over on Stroud, why not attack his favorite target as well? While Stefon Diggs will certainly cut into everyone’s target and air yards shares, I would still expect Nico Collins to maintain the lead among Texans pass catchers. Collins posted 146 and 195 receiving yards in two meetings with the Colts last season and per our Adam Pfeifer, should see a lot of Jaylen Jones in coverage this week, who allowed 11.4 air yards per target last season.

Ladd McConkey Over 36.5 Receiving Yards

(-110, Bet365)

Lastly, we know very little about what Ladd McConkey’s role will be in his NFL debut. What we do know is the Chargers have completely revamped their offense. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett are no longer a part of this Chargers offense. That’s the three most targeted players (299 in total) from a season ago, in addition to their WR2 (Williams) who was injured most of the season. Instead, they now have their two returning wideouts in Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston as their top two wideouts, DJ Chark and McConkey, with Hayden Hurst and Will Dissly at tight end. The biggest absence of course is Allen, who was Justin Herbert’s safety blanket. It’s been noted all throughout training camp how well Herbert and McConkey’s chemistry has developed, and it felt pretty evident that McConkey could have been selected as Allen’s successor. While most seem to view him as a wide, downfield threat, he did play 60% of his snaps out of the slot in only preseason action. If there’s even a chance new Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh views McConkey as an Allen-type target for Herbert, not only is 36.5 receiving yards looking quite low, but 3.5 receptions at plus money across the board is wildly low as well.