Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We are now just 23 days away from the start of the 2023 NFL season. On Thursday, Sept. 7, we will all be enjoying the Thursday night kickoff matchup between the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs.
Best ball season is in full swing and redraft leagues preparations are now on the immediate horizon. As more and more fantasy managers begin drafting, this year’s rookies start to gain momentum. As the rookies gain attention, the sophomore class from last season starts to become overshadowed. Taking advantage of the prioritization of rookies over established veterans is a great edge to attack in fantasy drafts, especially when it comes to second-year players. These players often take huge strides during their second NFL season, building on their full season of NFL experience and development.
We continue our second-year scouting report series today with Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir. The fifth-round pick in the 2022 draft was not expected to be a major contributor in his rookie season, but still flashed enough to convince the Bills to release former slot receiver Isaiah McKenzie. Shakir’s speed combined with a pedigree of elite college production at Boise State, make him an interesting late-round target in fantasy drafts.
Khalil Shakir, WR, Buffalo Bills
Khalil Shakir was a dominant talent at Boise State, producing a superb final collegiate season in 2021. The 6-foot, 196-pound speedster posted 77 receptions, 1,117 receiving yards and 7 receiving touchdowns in his final season with the Broncos. His contributions last year were minimal, but can this explosive dynamo become a fantasy factor and reliable option in this explosive Bills offense?
What Went Wrong
Shakir was buried deep on the Buffalo depth behind Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, McKenzie and veteran Jamison Crowder. However, an early-season injury to Crowder gave Shakir more opportunities. After an early-season touchdown, Shakir disappeared for the middle of the season, while Buffalo’s running back usage increased. He caught just two passes in an eight-game stretch from Weeks 8 to 15.
What Went Right
Shakir started making a larger impact on the Buffalo offense as the playoffs approached. Per FTN Data, Shakir averaged double-digit routes run over the Bills final five games of the season including playoffs. He had a season-high 44% snap share in the opening playoff victory over Miami, with 5 targets, 3 receptions, 51 receiving yards and a most-impressive 104 air yards. Shakir slowly earned the trust of quarterback Josh Allen and the Buffalo coaching staff.
Prognosis Entering 2023
Can Shakir secure the WR3 role in this offense? If he can, he is one of the best ADP values on the board in fantasy. Trent Sherfield is listed as the current WR3, and Shakir is battling with Deonte Harty on the depth chart. Last season, Isaiah McKenzie and Devin Singletary combined for 117 targets and 80 receptions. The confounding variable is dynamic rookie Dalton Kincaid. The first-year tight end has been the talk of training camp and has been lining up both in the slot and on the outside. If Kincaid has a big season, that would limit Shakir’s upside. However, there is still enough opportunity for Shakir to exceed his current 191.8 ADP (WR82), that he just needs to outperform Sherfield. Given his performance in the Buffalo first preseason game, that is certainly in his range of outcomes.
Dynasty Outlook
Is it as simple as Kincaid vs. Shakir? Not exactly. Wideout Gabe Davis massively underperformed last season and is entering his contract season. Shakir is an afterthought in most dynasty leagues, since he is widely viewed as a special teams player with limited weekly upside. I see Shakir as a starting NFL slot receiver, whether in Buffalo or for another team. This year sets the table for Shakir’s career. If he gets an opportunity for regular weekly production in this Buffalo offense, his fantasy value grows exponentially. If Kincaid and Sherfield become fixtures with quarterback Josh Allen, then Shakir’s value is tethered to a new team. I am bullish on Shakir’s dynasty outlook as a direct result of his low cost. If you can get him at a cheap value, I would look to add Shakir in trades across all formats.
