Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Thursday 10/17)
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Desmond RidderPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Falcons vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Desmond Ridder’s passing yards prop is set at 180.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Atlanta Falcons O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Atlanta Falcons have incorporated some form of misdirection on 53.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.
Cons
- The Falcons are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 45.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.6 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have thrown for the 10th-least yards in football (just 218.0 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, yielding 7.02 yards-per-target: the 5th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
193
Passing Yards
193
Passing Yards
