NBA DFS Preview - First Look (2/1)

This week in the NBA features very balanced DFS slates, which are my favorite weeks of basketball. It continues Tuesday with a strong seven-game slate with a ton to keep an eye on.

Of course, be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer throughout the day.

NBA Vegas Data for February 1 | NBA DFS First Look

New Orleans Pelicans @ Detroit Pistons

DET -2, total: 214.5
Pace: NOP (23rd), DET (9th)

Situations to monitor:

Brandon Ingram (ankle) has missed the last five games and is questionable again for Tuesday’s contest.
For Detroit, Jerami Grant is off the injury report and will make his return.

Washington Wizards @ Milwaukee Bucks

MIL -11.5, total: 225.5
Pace: WAS (17th), MIL (7th)

Situations to monitor:

Bradley Beal will miss at least the next two games with a wrist injury.

Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors

TOR -3, total: 210.5
Pace: MIA (29th), TOR (27th)

Situations to monitor:

Kyle Lowry is still out due to personal reasons. Meanwhile, Jimmy Butler missed Monday’s game with a toe injury and is questionable for Tuesday.

Orlando Magic @ Chicago Bulls

CHI -8.5, total: 222
Pace: ORL (12th), CHI (13th)

Situations to monitor:

Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso will remain sidelined for Chicago, while Javonte Green (ankle) is listed as probable.

Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves

MIN -4.5, total: 230
Pace: DEN (20th), MIN (2nd)

Situations to monitor:

Nikola Jokic is listed as questionable to play with a toe injury. DeMarcus Cousins is also listed as questionable with a foot injury.
For Minnesota, both D’Angelo Russell and Patrick Beverley are listed as questionable for this game

Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs

GSW -2.5, total: 225.5
Pace: GSW (15th), SAS (5th)

Situations to monitor:

Draymond Green will remain out for the Warriors and now Klay Thompson will miss this game for rest purposes.
For San Antonio, Dejounte Murray, Derrick White and Jakob Poeltl will all return to the lineup.

Brooklyn Nets @ Phoenix Suns

PHX -7, total: 227
Pace: BKN (6th), PHX (7th)

Situations to monitor:

James Harden missed last game with a hand injury and although he did practice Monday, he is listed as questionable. LaMarcus Aldridge, meanwhile, has been ruled out with an ankle injury.
Deandre Ayton and Jae Crowder have once again been ruled out for the Suns.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Spencer Dinwiddie’s usage rate climbs by 4.8% with Bradley Beal off the floor this season

Washington has been at full strength for a while now, but that will change for at least the next two games with Beal sidelined. This team has been very unappealing for fantasy when fully healthy, but Beal’s absence changes things. With Beal off the floor this season, Dinwiddie is sporting a 25.8% usage rate to go along with a massive 23% assist rate. He is also averaging 1.14 fantasy points per minute in the split and per the FTN NBA Splits tool, Dinwiddie is averaging 44.6 fantasy points per game in games Beal has missed this season, compared to just under 30 fantasy points per game when Beal is active.

Jordan Poole is sporting a 27.6% usage rate with both Klay Thompson and Draymond Green off the court

Green continues to miss time with a calf injury and with this being the second end of a back-to-back, Thompson will rest. This should lead to increased opportunity for Poole, who is flirting with a 28% usage rate with both players off the floor this season, while also averaging 1.0 fantasy points per minute in the split. The matchup is favorable, facing a San Antonio team that plays at the fifth-fastest pace in the NBA, while also coughing up a league-leading 1.06 points per possession to players off hand-offs, as well as the second-highest field goal percentage off the play type (48.2%). Expect Poole to attempt way more than the four fields goals he attempted on Monday.

Chris Paul is sporting a 34% assist rate over the last two weeks

Paul has been fantastic lastely, averaging 21.4 points, 13.4 assists, 6.8 rebounds and 54.8 fantasy points per game over his last five outings. And with Cameron Payne sidelined, Paul is also averaging just under 39 minutes per game during that span, which is way, way more than he’s accustomed to. And over the last two weeks, Paul is sporting a massive 34% assist rate to go along with a 17% rebounding rate and 1.37 fantasy points per minute. Paul has recorded double-digit assists in six of his last seven games and has a strong matchup with Brooklyn Tuesday.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Jordan McLaughlin vs. DEN — With both D’Angelo Russell and Patrick Beverley out last game, McLaughlin drew the start for Minnesota, logging 27 minutes and scoring just under 28 fantasy points. If both Russell and Beverley are sidelined again Tuesday, McLaughlin would become one of the best value plays of the slate. He is sporting a strong 21% assist rate with both players off the floor over the course of the season.