Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brian RobinsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Patriots vs. Commanders
Right now, Brian Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 41.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-114).
Pros
- In this week’s game, Brian Robinson is expected by the projections to secure a spot in the 80th percentile among RBs with 13.5 rush attempts.
- Out of all running backs, Brian Robinson ranks in the 92nd percentile for carries this year, taking on 60.5% of the workload in his offense’s ground game.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders offensive gameplan to lean 13.9% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
- The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 3rd-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 35.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects the Commanders to run the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- Brian Robinson’s 46.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season represents an impressive diminishment in his running proficiency over last season’s 63.0 figure.
- This year, the deficient New England Patriots run defense has allowed a whopping 3.78 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing rushing attacks: the 26th-highest rate in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Rushing Yards
58
Rushing Yards
