Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Chargers vs. Bears
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Bears will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Tyson Bagent in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- This week’s spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Bears, who are huge -8.5-point underdogs.
- The Chargers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (39.8 per game) this year.
- The predictive model expects Cole Kmet to accumulate 5.3 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- Cole Kmet’s 45.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season shows a noteworthy improvement in his receiving talent over last season’s 32.0 figure.
Cons
- The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the 8th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects the Bears offense to be the 5th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.21 seconds per snap.
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point drop-off in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Cole Kmet has been incorporated much less in his team’s air attack.
- The Chargers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.03 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
