Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chigoziem Okonkwo from EV Insight

Chigoziem OkonkwoReceiving Yards

Right now, Chigoziem Okonkwo’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-135/+105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (+105) after it opened @ 32.5 (-115).

Pros

In this week’s game, Chigoziem Okonkwo is predicted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 82nd percentile among TEs with 5.1 targets.
Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 16.2% Target Rate this year reflects a noteable growth in his passing offense utilization over last year’s 10.8% rate.
After accruing 21.0 air yards per game last season, Chigoziem Okonkwo has undergone big improvement this season, now boasting 33.0 per game.
The Houston Texans defense has been gouged for the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (59.0) vs. TEs this year.
As it relates to safeties rushing the passer, Houston’s group of safeties has been very bad this year, projecting as the 6th-worst in the NFL.

Cons

With a 3-point advantage, the Titans are favored in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on running than their standard approach.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tennessee Titans to pass on 51.8% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tennessee Titans are anticipated by the projection model to call just 64.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Titans have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.5 plays per game.
Chigoziem Okonkwo’s possession skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 71.9% to 68.0%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards