The Read Option, Week 12: Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. And this week it’s all free! Below, check out his breakdown of the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions Thanksgiving game for Week 12.

Week 12 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions

DET -7.5, O.U 47
Pace: GB: 27.2 sec/snap (15th), DET: 27.0 sec/snap (13th)

FTN Data Breakdown

• Amon-Ra St. Brown has 100 yards and/or a touchdown in every game this season.
• AJ Dillon is averaging 61% of the snaps, 70% of the rush attempts and 15.3 attempts per game in three games without Aaron Jones.
• The Lions are allowing the fourth-highest aDOT in the NFL (8.7 yards).
• Jordan Love’s 8.9 intended air yards per pass attempt ranks fourth among all quarterbacks this season.

Quarterback

Jordan Love took advantage of a good matchup last week against the Chargers, completing 27-of-40 passes for 322 yards and a pair of touchdowns. It was his first 300-yard game of the season — Love has now finished as the QB9 and QB12 in fantasy over the last two weeks. He has looked much better over his last three games, and if Green Bay is going to upset the Lions on Thanksgiving, Love will have to have a third straight good game, especially with Aaron Jones likely out. The Lions have been a pass funnel defense this season, as 71.4% of the yardage against Detroit has come through the air, the eighth-highest rate in the league. Detroit will give up explosive plays in the passing game, allowing the fourth-highest aDOT (8.7 yards) and the 10th-most yards per completion (11.3). Love, meanwhile, ranks fourth among qualified signal callers in intended air yards per pass attempt (8.7), while 14.7% of his pass attempts have traveled 20-plus yards down the field, the fifth-highest rate in football. Meanwhile, only Dak Prescott has attempted more passes in the end zone this season than Love (34). He struggled when these teams first met, but I think Love is a high-end QB2 this week.

Running Back

Aaron Jones suffered another injury Sunday, one that will almost certainly sideline him for Thursday’s contest, possibly longer. With Jones and Emanuel Wilson leaving the game, AJ Dillon ended up playing all 32 snaps in the second half for Green Bay, ultimately finishing the game with 18 touches for 61 scoreless yards. In three starts without Jones this season, Dillon has left plenty to be desired, averaging 15.3 attempts, 54.7 yards and 8.1 PPR points per contest, while logging 61% of the snaps and handling 70% of the total rush attempts. He hasn’t been good this year, averaging just 4.3 yards per touch (40th) and a career-low 0.58 PPR points per touch. Still, volume should be on his side here, which makes him a high-end flex play despite the tough matchup. The Lions have allowed a lead running back to score against them in four straight games, though the touchdowns have come from 1-3 yards out. Detroit is still allowing just 3.8 yards per carry on the season, as well as the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game to opposing backfields (62.3).

Wide Receiver

Green Bay’s wide receiver room continues to be tough to project on a weekly basis. Love is spreading the ball around a ton, as no wide receiver has even a 20% target share on the season. Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson both found the end zone last week, though Doubs once again had the better game. He has now scored a touchdown in four of his last five games, and while Watson quietly leads the NFL in end zone targets since Week 7 with nine, Doubs ranks second in that department over the course of the season (12). But with Love attempting so many passes in the end zone (and Green Bay 8th in red zone pass rate), both wideouts have touchdown potential, though don’t expect a high floor. Watson does still have a ceiling in this spot, as his 17.2-yard aDOT ranks top-10 in the league, while the Lions allow plenty of explosive plays in the passing game. Watson and Doubs remain low-floor WR3 options.

Meanwhile, Jayden Reed scored a touchdown on an end around last week, but he did run a route on 77% of dropbacks, his second-highest rate in a game this season. Reed has at least five targets in three of his last four games and Green Bay schemes targets and touches for him, as the rookie has been in pre-snap motion 14.8% of the time on the season. He’s an okay flex in deep leagues, though there are no teams on bye in Week 12.

Tight End

Since Week 8, Luke Musgrave has run a route on a healthy 75% of dropbacks, though he only has a 12% target share during that span. He hasn’t shown much of a ceiling this season but with Mark Andrews out, there are teams out there that need help at the tight end position. You could do worse than Musgrave against a Lions defense allowing the 11th-most fantasy points (12.6) and eighth-most targets (7.4) per game to opposing tight ends.

Quarterback

It looked like Jared Goff was on his way to a brutal game last week, and while he still absolutely disappointed, he bounced back to give you 236 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. At home, against a vulnerable Chicago pass defense, it was shocking to see Goff struggle. Goff has quietly been a bit boom/bust this season, either finishing as a top-10 fantasy quarterback or outside the top-15. He stays home this week to face a Green Bay defense that is allowing the sixth-lowest passing touchdown rate (3.2%), as well as the 10th-lowest yards per pass attempt (6.6). When these teams first met in Week 4, Detroit’s rushing attack did most of the heavy lifting, which could be the case again here. Goff is on the QB1/QB2 borderline this week.

Running Back

Both Detroit running backs are must-start options every week. Over the last two games with David Montgomery healthy, we have seen Jahmyr Gibbs still operate as the 1A in this backfield. During that span, Gibbs has played 58% of the snaps, handled 42% of the rush attempts, has played 63% of the long down and distance snaps and 63% of the snaps in the two-minute drill. He is also averaging 15.5 touches per game during that span. Montgomery, meanwhile, has played 39% of the snaps, handled 48% of the rush attempts and is averaging 13 touches per game. Gibbs has four carries inside the 5-yard line, compared to three for Montgomery. Don’t expect the same workload from Montgomery, but when he last played Green Bay, he dominated, rushing for 121 yards and three touchdowns. Of course, he likely won’t see 32 carries, but I do believe, despite the split, he is still the team’s goal line running back, while Gibbs is playing way more on third downs than he was to start the season. But with Detroit calling run 63.2% of the time inside the red zone (3rd), both running backs have touchdown upside, especially against a vulnerable Green Bay run defense that is allowing the seventh-most rushing yards (103) to opposing backfields.

DET RBs since Week 10

Wide Receiver

Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 8-of-11 targets for 77 yards and a touchdown last week, giving him 100 yards or a touchdown in every single game this season. That is phenomenal, showcasing his weekly floor and ceiling combination. Since Week 6, St. Brown has been unstoppable, averaging 12.6 targets, 9.4 receptions, 113.4 receiving yards and 24.5 PPR points per game. On the season, he has a 28% target share, while also being targeted on 28% of his routes. He found the end zone when these teams first met, and Green Bay is actually allowing the most yards per target to opposing slot receivers this season. 

Meanwhile, he’s still a very risky play, but we have seen Jameson Williams now set season-highs in route participation in consecutive weeks (55%, 66%). He hauled in a 32-yard touchdown last week, but you are still hoping for a long touchdown if you are starting Williams. Hold him on your bench. 

Tight End

Sam LaPorta has slowed down a bit, likely due to the combination of Detroit’s rushing attack being full strength and the uptick in playing time for Jameson Williams. He has just seven catches for 58 scoreless yards on 10 targets over the last two weeks, as the Lions are throwing to St. Brown and Gibbs more as of late. LaPorta is still a must-start, top-10 tight end, but he’s much closer to 10 than three or four now.