NFL Splits Tool, Week 16: Big Games to Monitor

The NFL is back, and so too is the fantasy football splits series, now featuring in-season data. Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook going forward. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.

SIC have a new feature – The Injury Edge – Your NFL Matchup Cheat Sheet.

It’s a tool for quickly seeing which teams have a health-based advantage each week using the proven SIC Health Score algorithm.
The SIC Health Score algorithm has seen teams with a 10+ health advantage win at over 58% Against The Spread over 4 NFL seasons!

FTN subscribers can get one free week of premium access to see all of The Injury Edge, plus all of the team and player health scores in SIC Data! Just go to sicscore.com/premium and select the weekly SIC Data subscription, then apply the promo code FTN.

Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Chargers

Bills -11.5, O/U 44

Bills

The Bills have clawed their way back into the playoff picture, defending their home turf and dismantling the Cowboys in their most recent outing. James Cook was the story of the game, scoring a pair of touchdowns, while also recording career-high marks in carries (25) and rushing yards (179). Since Joe Brady took over as the offensive coordinator, Cook has logged over a hundred yards from scrimmage in four consecutive games, averaging 140-plus combined rushing and receiving yards (141.1).

He’s become more involved in the passing game, which bodes well for his upcoming matchup against a Chargers team allowing a league-high 8.4 targets and the second-most receptions per game (6.4) to opposing running backs. Cook has been held out of practice with an illness, but head coach, Sean McDermott expects him to be a full go on Saturday.

Chargers

The Chargers’ humiliating loss to the Raiders Thursday night was the final nail in the coffin for Tom Telesco and Brandon Staley, who were relieved of their duties as general manager and head coach the following day. It’s hard to envision things will look better under new management, but it can’t get any worse. Easton Stick should draw the start once again and although he was competent for fantasy in Week 14, he’s much harder to trust against the Bills, who are one of nine teams allowing 15 or fewer fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. With Justin Herbert out for the season, Easton Stick is set to start his second career game, again missing Keenan Allen in Week 15.

Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer should be viewed as nothing more than desperation flex plays, piling up a large majority of their production in garbage time the previous week. 

Game Prop

Stefon Diggs 60+ Receiving Yards/Bills Moneyline

(-127, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Stefon Diggs has been quiet over the last month, failing to surpass 50 receiving yards in four out of his last five games. That said, if there was ever a spot for Diggs to get back on track, it would be in this upcoming matchup against the Chargers who have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game to opposing WR1s (89.9), ranked bottom five in DVOA against the pass (28th). Since Buffalo’s Week 13 bye, Diggs has seen a significant uptick in usage, earning a target on 30% of his routes, and leading the team with a 36% target share. As 12.5 favorites, the Bills should have no problem taking care of business on the road, getting one step closer to clinching a playoff berth.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs -10, O/U 41

Raiders

After getting goose-egged in Week 13, the Raiders’ offense bounced back in a significant way Thursday night, dropping 63 points against a lifeless Chargers team. They finally got Davante Adams going, as he surpassed the century mark for just the second time this season despite entering the game with an illness. Adams has been hard to trust week-to-week, but his production has been much more stable with Aidan O’Connell, averaging double-digit targets (10.7) and over 70 receiving yards (72.7) in seven games started by the fourth-round rookie.

As 10-point underdogs, Adams should continue to see massive volume against the Chiefs, who have been much more susceptible on the ground, ranked bottom six in DVOA against the rush. That bodes well for Josh Jacobs if he suits up, still listed as questionable with a quad injury.

If Jacobs cannot go, Zamir White should draw the start once again, coming off a career game in Week 14, handling 20 touches for 85 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. 

Chiefs

The Chiefs’ offense hasn’t been great, but finally got back on track against the Patriots, scoring over 20 points for just the second time in their last seven games. Rashee Rice continued to stay hot, catching a career-high nine passes for 91 yards and a touchdown. Rice has now seen his route participation rate increase in four consecutive weeks, surpassing the 90% mark for the first time in Week 14. During that span, Rice is averaging 83.5 receiving yards per game, finishing as a WR1 in three of the last four weeks.

Rice should continue to operate as a full-time player into the postseason, especially without Skky Moore who was placed on the injured reserve list earlier this week. Another injury situation worth monitoring is Isiah Pacheco, who has missed the last two games with a shoulder injury, likely to suit up in Week 14.

If Pacheco is out, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon should continue to split backfield duties, combining for 240 total yards and four touchdowns over the last two weeks.

Game Prop

Rashee Rice Over 5.5 Receptions

(-138, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Rashee Rice has seen an uptick in route participation rate in four consecutive weeks, finally surpassing the 90% mark in Week 14. He caught a career-high nine passes against the Patriots, logging seven-plus receptions in each of his last four games. The last time Rice faced the Raiders, he caught eight passes on double-digit targets (10), recording his lone 100-yard performance of the season (107).

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The Cowboys travel to Miami in America’s game of the week, looking to get back on track after suffering a humiliating loss to Buffalo. Even without Tyreek Hill, Mike McDaniel’s offense continued to set the standard in the league, dropping 30 points on a Jets defense ranked third overall in DVOA. The Dolphins are a 1.5 favorite at home, meaning the game is essentially a pick ‘em, featuring two teams with their eyes set on the postseason. Find out which team has the upper hand in the matchup by using “The Injury Edge NFL Matchup Cheat Sheet,” exclusive to Sports Injury Central subscribers. Get one week free by using the promo code “FTN” at checkout!