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Atlanta Braves (+145) @ San Diego Padres (-175)

This is going to sound a little crazy, but I’m liking the Padres bats Tuesday even without the Braves officially naming their starting pitcher. Atlanta scratched their ace Chris Sale Monday and were forced to use nine pitchers in their doubleheader against the Mets. That doesn’t leave the Bravos with many options for Game 1 in San Diego. Reports are Atlanta is choosing between Ian Anderson (who hasn’t made an MLB start since 2022), AJ Smith-Shawver and Bryce Elder. Elder has been solid in AAA this year, posting a 3.73 ERA and 3.54 FIP in 101.1 innings. However, the 25-year-old righty has struggled in the majors, posting a 6.52 ERA, 4.56 FIP in just under 50 innings this season. Righty Anderson threw 52.1 AAA innings this season and finished with a 3.96 ERA and 4.89 FIP. Smith-Shawver has the worst minor league numbers out of the trio with a 4.86 ERA and 5.62 FIP in 87 AAA innings in 2024. The Padres bats have the advantage in this one, no matter which backend of the rotation arm the Braves choose.

Atlanta’s bullpen was one of baseball’s best in the regular season. Their 3.25 ERA ranked third, 3.38 FIP second, and their SIERA was the best in the Show at 3.26. However, they used their high-leverage arms in Monday’s doubleheader – including having Joe Jiménez and Raisel Iglesias pitch in both games. Brian Snitker’s bullpen options are limited in this one as well.

At the plate, the Padres have the fourth-best wRC+ over the last 30 days against right-handed pitching at 115. For the season, the Padres rank third against right-handed pitching. Their 116 wRC+ is behind only the Yankees and Dodgers, which is impressive given their injuries and slow start to the 2024 season. The Padres had four batters hit at least 20 home runs in 2024, with Manny Machado leading the way with 29. Manny has been raking the entire second-half, slashing .286/.333/.543 with a 142 wRC+ in 259 PA.

The FTN MLB Model thinks the Padres win, as we have San Diego scoring four runs with Bryce Elder starting Game 1.

I like the Padres in this one, but the line has already moved about 30 cents. I’m not interested in chasing that number, so we’ll wait to see if it drops, or I’ll look for a playable live line. I also posted a Padres Series bet last night but that has already moved 35 cents. So officially we’re betting the over on the Padres team total despite the fact they haven’t named a starter yet.

Be sure to use FTN’s Live Odds board to bet the best number available in your state.

We ran projections for all four Wild Card Series with the FTN Model – check out the American League and National League projections.

Best Bet

Padres Team Total Over 3.5 -130 (DraftKings Sportsbook)