Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We’re now just over a week away from the NFL Draft, so let’s dive into another 2023 NFL mock draft. A lot has changed from when I did Mock Draft 2.0, so let’s put the pieces together based on what we’ve learned.
Of course, mock drafts are an exercise in futility, as it’s essentially impossible to get even remotely close to correct on all your picks. But the good news is that we now have ample betting odds to lean on in addition to intel from which players teams have decided to bring in for top-30 visits.
2023 NFL Mock Draft – 3.0
1. Carolina – Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Young is now -1200 to go first overall according to FanDuel Sportsbook, and for good reason. He’s the best player in this class. Sure, Young is undersized, but he also possesses a Mensa-level football IQ and better tools than he often gets credit for.
2. Houston – Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama
Wait, what? Yes, that’s right, the Texans pass on a quarterback and instead opt for Young’s college teammate. Anderson is now the favorite to go second at +200. He’s a defensive anchor on the edge who figures to be a long-term starter in the NFL.
3. Tennessee (trade with Arizona) – Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Let the games begin. Tennessee makes their move up the board sending pick 1.11 along with this year’s second-round selection and next year’s second to get up to No. 3. Like Houston, they pass on CJ Stroud and instead opt for the most athletic quarterback prospect we’ve ever seen. With Ryan Tannehill under contract for one more year, Richardson will get a full season to develop, which is exactly what he needs.
4. Indianapolis – Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Yet another team goes with a quarterback not named CJ Stroud, as the Colts instead select Levis. Reports have suggested that Indy views Levis as a player capable of starting right away, and the Colts current sit as the favorite to draft Levis at +140.
5. Seattle – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
Pete Carroll and John Schneider pass on Jalen Carter, who is +450 to go fifth overall, and instead grab a guy with freakish upside in Wilson. The Texas Tech product currently sits as the betting favorite for the No. 5 pick at +250.
6. Detroit – Jalen Carter, DI, Georgia
The Lions aren’t going to let Carter fall any further. They’re currently the second favorite to draft Carter at +450. His presence next to Aiden Hutchinson would give the Lions an absolutely nasty defensive line for years to come.
7. Las Vegas – Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
With Jimmy Garoppolo in the building, the Raiders decide to pass on Stroud and address a position of need with Witherspoon. He’s currently the favorite at -175 to be the No. 1 corner selected, so expect his name to be called in the top 10.
8. Atlanta – Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Are you surprised? I was when I saw the Falcons as the betting favorite to draft Robinson at +250, but that’s exactly what they are right now. It seems like a luxury pick for a team that isn’t in a luxury window, but it’s hard to deny Robinson’s talent.
9. Chicago – Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
Justin Fields got a major weapon in DJ Moore, and now he gets some much-needed help along the offensive line. Skoronski will give the Bears some versatility in terms of kicking inside to play guard or having him at tackle. He’s currently the favorite to be the first offensive lineman drafted at +175.
10. Philadelphia – Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
Howie Roseman doing Howie things with this pick. The Eagles continue to bolster their offensive line with one of the top tackle prospects in the draft.
11. Arizona (trade with Tennessee) – Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
The Cardinals trade back and land a player who some view as the top corner this year. Gonzalez is physical with plus size and the ability to consistently make plays on the ball. He’s a rock-solid piece to what looks to be a bit of a rebuild in Arizona.
12. Houston – CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State
The fall is finally over. Houston passed on Stroud at No. 2, and he ended up landing in their lap with their second pick in the first round. This may seem like a huge drop for Stroud, but there’s a legitimate pathway for him to fall outside the top 10. Crazy things can happen in the NFL draft.
13. NY Jets – Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
We have no idea when or even if the Aaron Rodgers trade will go down, but regardless, the Jets need to bolster their offensive line. This pick seems destined, as the Jets are currently -300 to take an offensive lineman with their first pick.
14. New England – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Even with the addition of JuJu Smith-Schuster, wide receiver remains a glaring weak spot for the Patriots. In Smith-Njigba, they get a good one who really fits the mold of a Bill Belichick wideout. The Patriots are currently tied as the second favorite to draft Smith-Njigba at +500, which is just behind the Texans at +450.
15. Green Bay – Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
This is an impressive edge class, so the Packers add some talent with Van Ness. Sure, he didn’t “start” for Iowa this past season, but he was clearly their best defensive player. His elite athletic traits were on full display at the Combine, as he posted a blazing-fast 4.58 in the 40-yard dash and showed major agility in the short shuttle (4.32) and the 3-cone (7.02). FanDuel currently has Green Bay at 2-to-1 to go defensive line with their first pick. That’s the shortest odds of any position.
16. Washington – Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
The Commanders have a lot of needs, but perhaps none greater than corner. It’s currently the favorite position for their first pick at +100. In Porter, they check the box with a Day 1 starter who comes with a football pedigree and the ability to excel in press coverage.
17. Pittsburgh – O’Cyrus Torrence, IOL, Florida
This may seem a bit early for Torrence, but the Steelers did have him in for a top-30 visit. They’re also +175 to go offensive line in this draft. The only position with shorter odds is corner, but with Porter off the board, it makes sense for Pittsburgh to grab the most talented interior offensive lineman in the class.
18. Detroit – Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
With T.J. Hockenson out of the mix, the Lions get themselves their tight end of the future. Kincaid is a dynamic option who gives Jared Goff yet another potent weapon in the passing game. While he isn’t the favorite to be the first tight end off the board, Kincaid currently sits at +100, which is nearly even with Michael Mayer at -125.
19. Tampa Bay – Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
The Bucs address a position of need and manage to get a little value in the process. Smith isn’t a can’t miss prospect, but his physical traits and freakish athleticism make him a very interesting draft-for-ceiling guy. FanDuel currently has the Bucs at +250 to go defensive line, which is second behind offensive line at +175.
20. Seattle – Calijah Kancey, DI, Pittsburgh
The Seahawks passed on Jalen Carter at 1.05, but they still manage to get one of the top defensive interior guys in the class with their second pick in the first round. In Kancey, they get an athletic freak who is capable of disrupting from the defensive interior.
21. LA Chargers – Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Wide receiver is the chalk pick for the Chargers at +125, but many don’t have Addison ahead of Quentin Johnston on their boards. However, the Chargers are looking to add a speed presence to offset Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. And unlike Johnston, Addison has met with the Chargers as a top-30 visit.
22. Baltimore – Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Lamar Jackson’s future with the team remains up in the air, but the Ravens get him yet another weapon in the passing game in this big-bodied prospect. FanDuel has Baltimore as the second favorite to draft Johnston at +600. Only the Vikings have shorter odds at +500.
23. Minnesota – Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
Yes, Kirk Cousins is their quarterback of the present, but the Vikings address the future with this pick. Hooker is recovering from an ACL injury and isn’t likely to play in 2023. Meanwhile, Cousins is in the final year of his deal. The math adds up here, as does the fact that the Vikings are the favorite to draft Hooker at +450. Drafting Hooker in the first round would also give them the crucial fifth-year option.
24. Jacksonville – Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
Corner is the current favorite for the Jags with their first pick at +175. In Ringo, they get a plug-and-play starter who is a playmaker who has very similar traits to veteran corner Patrick Peterson.
25. NY Giants – Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
Brian Daboll made things work at wide receiver this past season, but the Giants need to bring in more talent at the position. They get just that in the versatile Boston College product. FanDuel currently has the Giants at +125 to take a wide receiver, which is the shortest odds of any position.
26. Dallas – Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Dalton Schultz is out, so the Cowboys get themselves their tight end of the future, who is very much like a tight end of their past. Many have comped Mayer to long-time Cowboys tight end Jason Witten. Connecting the betting dots here, tight end is the favorite position for the Cowboys here at +175 and they’re also the favorite to draft Mayer at +350.
27. Buffalo – Brian Branch, S, Alabama
The Bills don’t have a ton of needs, so they get some value with the versatile defensive back. While listed as a safety, Branch is more of a hybrid defensive back who can also play slot corner.
28. Cincinnati – Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
Protect Joe Burrow. That’s the mission statement in Cincinnati, so expect the team to address offensive line. Wright can play at either tackle spot, but the Bengals need more help at right tackle. La’el Collins really struggled at the position last season. Offensive line currently sits as the third-favorite position for the Bengals at +350, but those odds are close to those for tight end (+150) and cornerback (+200)
29. New Orleans – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
The Saints enter the offseason very light along their defensive line, so they scoop up a high-ceiling edge option in Murphy. FanDuel currently has the Saints at +100 to go defensive line with their first pick.
30. Philadelphia – Bryan Bresee DL, Clemson
The Eagles stay in the trenches. After addressing offensive line with their first pick, Philly moves to the other side of the ball and continue to stockpile talent along their defensive line.
31. Kansas City – Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
FanDuel has offensive line and defensive line as the co-favorites at +175. With Harrison sitting as the best prospect at those respective positions, he lands as the final pick in the first round. There’s nothing wrong with adding more protection for Patrick Mahomes.
