Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DK MetcalfReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Seahawks vs. Broncos
Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 56.5 (+100) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a 6.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to total 8.2 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among wideouts.
- The Denver Broncos linebackers profile as the 5th-worst LB corps in football since the start of last season with their pass rush.
- The Denver Broncos pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 59.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Seattle Seahawks have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 55.6 plays per game.
- The Seattle Seahawks O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards
65
Receiving Yards
