Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Austin EkelerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Chargers vs. Raiders
Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 55.5 (-115) after it opened @ 58.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Chargers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Austin Ekeler to garner 13.8 rush attempts in this contest, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among running backs.
- The Los Angeles Chargers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
- The Las Vegas Raiders defensive tackles grade out as the worst collection of DTs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 10th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 37.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The Las Vegas Raiders defense owns the 8th-best efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, conceding just 4.25 yards-per-carry.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box against opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Rushing Yards
62
Rushing Yards
