College Football Best Bets of the Week: Week 9
Walter Waddell
Sometimes, we’re our own worst enemies in fantasy football. When you think about the overall goal of the game, it’s simple: score the most points. Yet, in the heat of battle, we often overlook that objective. And one of the most common places where we do this is when we shoot for upside.
Upside is a good thing. There’s no denying that. But there’s always a careful balance of ceiling and floor in fantasy football. I’ll often get asked questions that go something like this: “I know you have Player A ranked higher, but should I start Player B because he has more upside?”
Upside doesn’t win you fantasy matchups. Points do.
When making your start/sit decisions, don’t opt for upside. Start the player who is most likely to score the most points. Write that down in permanent ink and commit it to memory. It sounds super simple because it is.
Each week in The Report, I’m going to go through every game and give you the information you need to make the most informed decisions possible for your fantasy football rosters. I’ll provide some key about matchups, trends and anything else we need to know about each contest.
Note: The Report will be updated as I finish writing up each game, so be sure to check back throughout the end of the week. Games will be periodically added until Friday afternoons.
Minnesota @ LA Rams
Sam Darnold has struggled in his past two games, throwing just one touchdown and two interceptions. That’s a steep decline compared to his earlier performances this season, where he threw 11 touchdowns with only three interceptions in his first four games. However, this is a great spot for Darnold to get back on track. The Rams are 24th in pass defense DVOA.
Aaron Jones is coming off a strong performance, with 14 carries for 93 yards and a touchdown last week. He has the most scrimmage yards in the first six games with the Vikings since Adrian Peterson in 2007. Jones is also the only player in the NFL currently averaging 70-plus rushing yards per game and 30-plus receiving yards per game.
Justin Jefferson enters the week with the fifth-most receiving yards this season at 531. Over his first five seasons, Jefferson has accumulated 6,430 receiving yards, placing him third in NFL history for the most receiving yards in a player’s first five seasons. He’s an elite play this week with teammate Jordan Addison worthy of WR3 consideration. As for T.J. Hockenson, we’re in wait-and-see mode. The tight end was limited in practice all week and looks to be 50-50 for this game. If he does suit up, he’ll be somewhat tough to trust in his first game back.
Matthew Stafford has struggled this season, throwing only three touchdowns and four interceptions. That’s the fewest touchdown passes in a three-game span in his entire career. Of course, he’s been without his top two receivers for much of the season. That will change in this game, as Cooper Kupp will make his return. We could also see Puka Nacua, though it isn’t clear if the Rams will activate him from injured reserve.
Kupp suffered a sprained ankle in Week 2. In Week 1, he set a career-high with 21 targets against the Lions, and since Stafford joined the Rams in 2021, Kupp has averaged 91.1 receiving yards per game, second only to Justin Jefferson in the NFL. Expected a hefty workload for Kupp in this one. He’s a top-10 play. As for Nacua, it will be difficult to trust him in fantasy lineups if he’s activated. Don’t get too overzealous with him.
Kyren Williams has scored a rushing touchdown in nine consecutive games. That’s the second-longest streak in Rams history and the longest active streak in the NFL. Rams legends who didn’t have this long of a streak include: Marshall Faulk, Eric Dickerson and Steven Jackson. Even in a tough matchup, Williams remains a top-shelf fantasy play.
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