Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 9
Panthers vs. Colts
Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-135/+105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-135) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).
Pros
- The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts offensive gameplan to tilt 1.0% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
- Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Indianapolis Colts to run on 44.7% of their chances: the 5th-greatest clip on the slate this week.
- The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to run the most total plays on the slate this week with 66.7 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The 8th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a colossal 61.9 per game on average).
- This year, the porous Carolina Panthers run defense has been gouged for a massive 157.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the most in the NFL.
Cons
- Jonathan Taylor’s 50.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year represents a meaningful drop-off in his rushing prowess over last year’s 79.0 rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards
66
Rushing Yards
