Week 9 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jonathan Taylor from EV Insight

Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards

Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-135/+105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-135) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).

Pros

The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts offensive gameplan to tilt 1.0% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Indianapolis Colts to run on 44.7% of their chances: the 5th-greatest clip on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to run the most total plays on the slate this week with 66.7 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 8th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a colossal 61.9 per game on average).
This year, the porous Carolina Panthers run defense has been gouged for a massive 157.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the most in the NFL.

Cons

Jonathan Taylor’s 50.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year represents a meaningful drop-off in his rushing prowess over last year’s 79.0 rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards