Week 9 Player Props: Passing Yards for Joe Burrow from EV Insight

Joe BurrowPassing Yards

Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 257.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 257.5 (-110) after it opened @ 261.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 62.2 plays per game.
Joe Burrow has attempted 39.0 passes per game this year, grading out in the 78th percentile among quarterbacks.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
Joe Burrow has thrown for quite a few more yards per game (286.0) this season than he did last season (211.0).

Cons

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.77 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the league.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has afforded their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the league since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
270
Passing Yards