Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Marquise BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Cardinals vs. Ravens
Right now, Marquise Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-115) after it opened @ 50.5 (-118).
Pros
- The Cardinals may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more carries) as a result of being be forced to utilize backup QB Joshua Dobbs.
- At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are giant underdogs this week, suggesting much more of an emphasis on throwing than their standard game plan.
- The leading projections forecast the Arizona Cardinals as the 10th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 59.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Right now, the 10th-quickest paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Arizona Cardinals.
- The Ravens defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (40.4 per game) this year.
Cons
- The Arizona Cardinals feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 6.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- As it relates to pocket protection (and the influence it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Cardinals profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year.
- Marquise Brown’s 54.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this season represents a noteworthy reduction in his receiving talent over last season’s 62.8% mark.
- Marquise Brown is positioned as one of the least effective pass-catchers in football, averaging a measly 6.65 adjusted yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 23rd percentile among wide receivers
- The Ravens defense has yielded the 10th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 142.0) vs. WRs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
