Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Durham SmytheReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 8
Dolphins vs. Patriots
Right now, Durham Smythe’s receiving yards prop is set at 10.5 yards (-120/-110).
Pros
- At the moment, the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football (63.7% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Dolphins.
- Durham Smythe’s 80.0% Route Participation Rate this season indicates a material progression in his passing attack volume over last season’s 27.1% mark.
- After averaging 5.0 air yards per game last season, Durham Smythe has seen a big uptick this season, now sitting at 13.0 per game.
- Durham Smythe’s 24.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season reflects a noteworthy improvement in his pass-catching skills over last season’s 11.0 figure.
- The New England Patriots defense has been torched for the 5th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (58.0) vs. TEs this year.
Cons
- An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Dolphins being a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
- At the present time, the 9th-slowest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Miami Dolphins.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) generally mean decreased passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and increased rush volume.
Projection
THE BLITZ
17
Receiving Yards
17
Receiving Yards
