Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Colts vs. Browns
Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-115) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Colts have been the 5th-most run-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) this year with a 41.7% run rate.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.4 total plays run: the most out of all the games this week.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 62.3 plays per game.
- The projections expect Jonathan Taylor to notch 15.0 carries in this week’s game, on balance, ranking him in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- With an impressive record of 70.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (96th percentile), Jonathan Taylor ranks among the top RBs in football since the start of last season.
Cons
- This week’s line implies a throwing game script for the Colts, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
- After taking on 67.6% of his team’s run game usage last year, Jonathan Taylor has been called on less the rushing attack this year, currently taking on just 26.1%.
- The opposing side have rushed for the 3rd-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 73.0 per game) vs. the Browns defense this year.
- As it relates to the linebackers’ role in defending against the run, Cleveland’s group of LBs has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 5th-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards
65
Rushing Yards
