Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Darren WallerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Bills vs. Giants
Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Giants will be starting backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Giants being a an enormous -15.5-point underdog in this week’s game.
- In this week’s game, Darren Waller is expected by the projections to land in the 96th percentile among tight ends with 7.0 targets.
- Darren Waller’s 53.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 35.9.
- Darren Waller has been among the leading pass-game TEs this year, averaging a fantastic 47.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 91st percentile.
Cons
- Right now, the 8th-least pass-oriented team in football (58.1% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the New York Giants.
- Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Buffalo Bills, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.6 per game) this year.
- After totaling 65.0 air yards per game last season, Darren Waller has fallen off this season, now boasting 58.0 per game.
- As it relates to pocket protection (and the significance it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the New York Giants grades out as the worst in the league this year.
- Darren Waller’s 7.1 adjusted yards per target this year illustrates a a noteable reduction in his receiving ability over last year’s 9.8 rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
