Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Noah FantReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Titans vs. Seahawks
Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 20.5 (-110) after it opened @ 19.5 (-114).
Pros
- At the present time, the 7th-most pass-centric team in the league (63.9% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Seattle Seahawks.
- Noah Fant’s receiving efficiency has improved this year, notching 8.92 adjusted yards-per-target compared to just 7.62 figure last year.
- With a remarkable 5.85 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (79th percentile) this year, Noah Fant ranks as one of the best TE receiving threats in the league in space.
- This year, the porous Titans pass defense has been gouged for a colossal 79.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 2nd-largest rate in the NFL.
- As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Tennessee’s group of safeties has been lousy this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the NFL.
Cons
- The Seahawks are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Seahawks to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The 6th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Seahawks this year (a measly 55.5 per game on average).
- Noah Fant’s 17.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 24.6.
- The Tennessee Titans defense has yielded the 8th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 44.0) to TEs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards
23
Receiving Yards
