NFL Splits Tool, Week 14: Big Games to Monitor

The NFL is back, and so too is the fantasy football splits series, now featuring in-season data. Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook going forward. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers, and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.

SIC have a new feature – The Injury Edge – Your NFL Matchup Cheat Sheet.

It’s a tool for quickly seeing which teams have a health-based advantage each week using the proven SIC Health Score algorithm.
The SIC Health Score algorithm has seen teams with a 10+ health advantage win at over 58% Against The Spread over 4 NFL seasons!

FTN subscribers can get one free week of premium access to see all of The Injury Edge, plus all of the team and player health scores in SIC Data! Just go to sicscore.com/premium and select the weekly SIC Data subscription, then apply the promo code FTN.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

49ers -10.5, O/U 47

49ers

No team has been hotter than the 49ers, who have won four consecutive games after dismantling the Eagles 42-19 in their last outing. The win vaulted Brock Purdy to the top of the MVP race, who has looked unstoppable coming out of the bye, taking his game to another level with Deebo Samuel back in the lineup. Purdy has been a steady contributor for fantasy all season, but his production through the air has been significantly better with Samuel available for a complement of snaps.

Samuel had one of his better performances of the season the last time he faced Seattle, totaling 94 scrimmage yards and a rushing touchdown.

Seahawks

The Seahawks dropped their third game in a row in Week 13, but finally found their stride on offense, dropping 35 points on the vaunted Cowboys defense. With Kenneth Walker sidelined for a second conductive game, Seattle got away from their traditional ground-and-pound attack, unleashing Geno Smith. Smith attempted 41 passes on the day, throwing for 334 yards and a season-high three touchdowns. Zach Charbonnet was bottled up for most of the game, averaging 3.1 yards per carry, but still got home for fantasy, totaling nearly a hundred yards from scrimmage (99) and a rushing touchdown. However, Charbonnet suffered a knee injury late in the fourth quarter, putting his status in doubt for Week 14.

Game Prop

Michael Pittman 5+ receptions, Colts +3.5

(-120, Bet365)

Michael Pittman has cleared 5 receptions in 10 of 12 games this season, failing to hit that mark just one time with Gardner Minshew under center. Although the Colts narrowly escaped the Titans in Week 13, their four-game win streak is too hard to ignore, making them live dogs to defeat the Bengals in Cincinnati. Win or lose, the Colts should remain competitive, with their eyes set on the postseason.

Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals

Colts -1, O/U 44

Colts

The Colts continued to climb up the ranks in the AFC playoff picture, defeating the Titans in overtime, winning their fourth game in a row. What once looked like a lost season has turned into one of the better stories in the NFL, with Gardner Minshew keeping the team competitive despite losing their franchise quarterback. The changing of the guard under center has unlocked a new ceiling for Michael Pittman, who is playing the best ball of his career, averaging almost eight receptions (7.8) and over 80 receiving yards (80.1) in games started by Minshew.

Pittman has topped 100 receiving yards in back-to-back games, set up for another eruption spot against a Bengals team that ranks bottom six in DVOA on defense. The matchup is even better for Zack Moss, who should continue to operate as an every-down back with Jonathan Taylor unlikely to suit up in Week 12.

Bengals

The Bengals pulled off one of the upsets of the season in Week 13, defeating the Jaguars on the road after entering the game as 10.5 underdogs. Jake Browning was the story of the game, completing 86.5% of his passes for 354 yards, scoring one touchdown through the air and another on the ground. Even without Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase continued to show why he’s one of the best wide receivers in the league, catching 12 of 14 passes for 149 yards and a touchdown. There isn’t a large sample size of Chase without Burrow, even dating back to college. However, with Browning as the starter, Chase hasn’t lost a beat, averaging 9 targets, 7.5 receptions, and 115 receiving yards over the last two games.

Game Prop

DK Metcalf 4+ receptions & 25+ receiving yards, Jaxon Smith-Njigba 3+ receptions & 25+ receiving yards

(-130, Bet365)

DK Metcalf logged his best game of the season in Week 13, catching six of eight passes for 134 yards and three touchdowns.  He’s been a volume hog over the last month, averaging 5.3 grabs for 89.5 yards on 9.5 targets over his last four games. Behind Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has started to separate from Tyler Lockett as the clear No. 2 on the offense, catching at least three passes for 25 or more yards in eight consecutive games. Despite ranking inside the top-three in DVOA against the pass, the 49ers have been susceptible to ceding production to opposing wide receivers, allowing the second-most receptions (15.3) and 10th-most receiving yards (169.2) per game to the position.

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The Jaguars season took a turn for the worst in Week 13, getting humiliated by the Bengals at home, losing Christian Kirk for several weeks and perhaps Trevor Lawrence in their upcoming matchup. They’ll take on the Browns in Cleveland this weekend, who are dealing with injuries of their own, likely missing Amari Cooper who is still in concussion protocol. The line has slowly started to move towards the Browns, however, Trevor Lawrence did return to practice in a limited fashion on Thursday, yet to be ruled out for Week 14. Monitoring both teams’ injury situations can create a significant advantage in the betting markets, as well as “The Injury Edge NFL Matchup Cheat Sheet,” exclusive to Sports Injury Central subscribers. Get one week free by using the promo code “FTN” at checkout!