NFL Splits Tool, Week 14: Big Games to Monitor

The NFL is back, and so too is the fantasy football splits series, now featuring in-season data. Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook going forward. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers, and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.

SIC have a new feature – The Injury Edge – Your NFL Matchup Cheat Sheet.

It’s a tool for quickly seeing which teams have a health-based advantage each week using the proven SIC Health Score algorithm.
The SIC Health Score algorithm has seen teams with a 10+ health advantage win at over 58% Against The Spread over 4 NFL seasons!

FTN subscribers can get one free week of premium access to see all of The Injury Edge, plus all of the team and player health scores in SIC Data! Just go to sicscore.com/premium and select the weekly SIC Data subscription, then apply the promo code FTN.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

49ers -10.5, O/U 47

49ers

No team has been hotter than the 49ers, who have won four consecutive games after dismantling the Eagles 42-19 in their last outing. The win vaulted Brock Purdy to the top of the MVP race, who has looked unstoppable coming out of the bye, taking his game to another level with Deebo Samuel back in the lineup. Purdy has been a steady contributor for fantasy all season, but his production through the air has been significantly better with Samuel available for a complement of snaps.

Samuel had one of his better performances of the season the last time he faced Seattle, totaling 94 scrimmage yards and a rushing touchdown.

Seahawks

The Seahawks dropped their third game in a row in Week 13, but finally found their stride on offense, dropping 35 points on the vaunted Cowboys defense. With Kenneth Walker sidelined for a second conductive game, Seattle got away from their traditional ground-and-pound attack, unleashing Geno Smith. Smith attempted 41 passes on the day, throwing for 334 yards and a season-high three touchdowns. Zach Charbonnet was bottled up for most of the game, averaging 3.1 yards per carry, but still got home for fantasy, totaling nearly a hundred yards from scrimmage (99) and a rushing touchdown. However, Charbonnet suffered a knee injury late in the fourth quarter, putting his status in doubt for Week 14.

Game Prop

Michael Pittman 5+ receptions, Colts +3.5

(-120, Bet365)

Michael Pittman has cleared 5 receptions in 10 of 12 games this season, failing to hit that mark just one time with Gardner Minshew under center. Although the Colts narrowly escaped the Titans in Week 13, their four-game win streak is too hard to ignore, making them live dogs to defeat the Bengals in Cincinnati. Win or lose, the Colts should remain competitive, with their eyes set on the postseason.

Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals

Colts -1, O/U 44

Colts

The Colts continued to climb up the ranks in the AFC playoff picture, defeating the Titans in overtime, winning their fourth game in a row. What once looked like a lost season has turned into one of the better stories in the NFL, with Gardner Minshew keeping the team competitive despite losing their franchise quarterback. The changing of the guard under center has unlocked a new ceiling for Michael Pittman, who is playing the best ball of his career, averaging almost eight receptions (7.8) and over 80 receiving yards (80.1) in games started by Minshew.