Team Profile
Buffalo Bills
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23.7% 2ndOff DVOA
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50% 2ndPassing DVOA
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9.4% 3rdRushing DVOA
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-6.8% 8thDef DVOA
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0.9% 12thDef Passing DVOA
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-17.2% 7thDef Rushing DVOA
2024 Team Stats
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Points For31.8 2nd
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Points Against21.6 10th
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Yards Per Game366.0 9th
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Yards Allowed Per Game344.0 20th
Buffalo Bills tight end Dawson Knox (illness) did not participate in Thursday's practice due to an illness, but he was removed from the injury report on Friday and will be active for Monday's Super Wild Card Weekend game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers. Knox played second fiddle to impressive rookie Dalton Kincaid throughout the regular season, and that's unlikely to change during the postseason. 2023 was easily the 27-year-old former Pro Bowler's weakest statistical campaign, averaging 1.8 receptions for 15.5 yards (8.5 yards per catch) with two total touchdowns over 12 games. Even with starting wideout Gabe Davis (knee) sidelined on Monday coupled with a cheap $2,900 DraftKings salary, it's not enough to make Knox relevant outside of single-game DFS showdowns as a TD-dependent dart throw. Unless you're searching for a contrarian option, Knox should be avoided.
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir made a bit of a name for himself in his second season. Shakir found a home in the slot for the Bills, leading the team with 398 slot snaps alongside perimeter threats Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis (knee) and forming quite the connection with quarterback Josh Allen. Vacuuming up 39 of his 45 passes for 611 yards and two touchdowns, the 23-year-old former fifth-rounder paced the NFL's qualifying wideouts with both a pristine 86.6% catch rate as well as a hyper-efficient 13.1 yards per target. That should go a long way in earning Allen's trust as a bankable secondary option behind alpha target Diggs, and Shakir is in line to function as Buffalo's No. 2 wideout with Davis out for Super Wild Card Weekend on Monday versus the Pittsburgh Steelers. Frigid temperatures could hamper Buffalo's passing game, but Shakir's $3,400 DraftKings salary may be too valuable to pass up on as a DFS budget play.
The Buffalo Bills traded up to draft tight end Dalton Kincaid with the 25th overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft, and they have to be pleased with the early returns. Though there were some bumps along the way, there was a lot to like out of Kincaid's rookie year, considering that early-career tight ends tend to struggle. Kincaid effectively settled in as Buffalo's power-slot weapon, which was part of what the team had envisioned for the Utah product. Kincaid collected 73 of his 91 passes for 673 yards and two touchdowns during the regular season, and he enters Monday's postseason debut against the Pittsburgh Steelers with 80-yard showings in each of his prior two outings. With No. 2 wide receiver Gabe Davis (knee) out for this matchup, Kincaid could pick up some extra attention from quarterback Josh Allen. While Kincaid's $4,600 DraftKings cost isn't the most expensive, DFS players may be digging deeper into the bargain bin for salary relief.
Buffalo Bills running back James Cook handled a featured role fairly well this year, ending as fantasy's overall RB12 in PPR scoring and notching his first career Pro Bowl nod. Though Cook finished behind only Christian McCaffrey and Breece Hall in scrimmage yards (1,567), he's sputtering a bit with just 154 rushing yards in his past three outings ahead of the postseason. It remains to be seen if the 24-year-old former second-rounder has maintained his grip on scoring-area work for Monday's wild-card matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers, considering he has zero touchdowns in his last three games despite 11 red-zone touches, but the concerning weather could force both sides to employ a run-heavy approach. At an affordable $6,600 price tag on DraftKings, Cook is firmly in play as an RB1 option with the Bills positioned as double-digit favorites at home against a middling Steelers defense without its heart and soul, T.J. Watt (knee).
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen turned heads yet again in 2023, closing as fantasy's overall QB1 for the third time in the last four years, with the exception being a QB2 finish in 2022. Allen leads the way with an $8,000 salary on DraftKings for Monday's wild-card tilt versus the Pittsburgh Steelers, but weather could still play a part despite the game being pushed back from Sunday. The absence of the game-wrecking T.J. Watt (knee) is a massive boon for the outlook of the entire Bills offense; the All-Pro linebacker led the NFL in sacks (19.0). Expect Buffalo to lean on Allen as a runner, which is something they did with regularity down the stretch of the regular season. Over his final six games of the campaign, Allen picked up 9.7 carries for 43.8 yards per contest with eight total touchdowns. If you're paying up for Allen on Monday, understand that the frigid conditions may render it difficult for him to get in sync as a thrower.