NBA DFS Preview – First Look (3/24)

Thursday presents a modest five-game NBA DFS slate, and while it certainly isn’t my favorite slate of the year, there is still plenty to pay attention to.

As always, be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer. 

NBA Vegas Data for March 24 | NBA DFS First Look

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Toronto Raptors

TOR -5.5, total: 214.5
Pace: CLE (25th), TOR (24th)

Situations to monitor:

• Malachi Flynn remains out for Toronto, while OG Anunoby and Gary Trent are both listed as questionable.
• Rajon Rondo, Jarrett Allen and Dean Wade are out for the Cavaliers

Indiana Pacers @ Memphis Grizzlies

MEM-12, total: 236.5
Pace: IND (19th), MEM (3rd)

Situations to monitor:

• Ja Morant did not play Wednesday. We’ll see if he returns for Thursday’s contest. 
• For the Pacers, Isaiah Jackson, Jalen Smith and Chris Duarte will be questionable.

Washington Wizards @ Milwaukee Bucks

MIL -12.5, total: 233.5
Pace: WAS (22nd), MIL (3rd)

Situations to monitor:

• Kyle Kuzma has once again been ruled out for Washington.
• Khris Middleton (wrist) has been ruled out again for Milwaukee.

Chicago Bulls @ New Orleans Pelicans

NOP -1.5, total: 226
Pace: CHI (11th), NOP (18th)

Situations to monitor:

• Zach LaVine is probable to play in this game, while DeMar DeRozan is listed as questionable. 
• For New Orleans, Brandon Ingram is listed as doubtful.

Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets

DEN -4, total: 231.5
Pace: PHX (9th), DEN (20th)

Situations to monitor:

• Chris Paul and Cameron Johnson are both questionable for the Suns.

Matchups to Target | NBA DFS First Look

Jrue Holiday vs. Washington Wizards

Milwaukee will remain without Khris Middleton, which makes Holiday a very strong play. The Bucks could easily still blow out the Wizards, especially with Kyle Kuzma sidelined. But even if they do, you have to think the majority of that production is coming from Holiday, and of course, Giannis Antetokounmpo. With Middleton off the floor this season, Holiday’s usage rate jumps up by 5.2%, while he is averaging a very strong 1.28 fantasy points per minute in the split. He also averages nearly four more field goal attempts per game when Middleton is out of the Milwaukee lineup and a matchup with Washington is favorable, as the Wizards ranks 27th against primary ball handlers, per our advanced DVP. 

Dillon Brooks vs. Indiana Pacers

We’ll see if Ja Morant returns to the lineup Thursday after missing Wednesday’s contest. If he remains out, Brooks is one of the best mid-range plays of the slate. He is sporting a 29.3% usage rate with Morant off the floor this season, while averaging a healthy 1.07 fantasy points per minute in the split. Brooks is going to shoot the basketball, as he’s attempted 18 and 21 field goals over his last two games. And if Morant remains sidelined, I’d expect similar volume today in a great matchup against the Pacers, who are surrendering the fourth-most points per game (5.7), fifth-most points per possession (0.99) and fourth-highest field goal percentage (43.6%) off hand-offs this season. That bodes well for Brooks, who is averaging 2.2 points per game off the play type, good for the fourth-most in all of basketball. 

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Tyus Jones vs. IND — You simple cannot fade Jones when Ja Morant is out, especially when his price really doesn’t move. He’s been one of the best backup point guards in the NBA and when asked to start, he’s delivered, averaging 12.1 points, 6.8 assists and 3.2 rebounds per game in 17 starts. He started Wednesday and posted a solid 16-point, 10-assist double-double.