NBA DFS Preview – First Look (3/12)

There continues to be plenty of NBA DFS action this weekend, starting with a solid seven-game slate Saturday. Per usual, keep an eye on injury reports throughout the day, especially in Chicago with the Bulls.

Be sure to use the FTN NBA Optimizer. 

NBA Vegas Data for March 12 | NBA DFS First Look

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Chicago Bulls

CHI -5, total: 223.5
Pace: CLE (26th), CHI (15th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jarrett Allen and Caris LeVert will remain out for Cleveland.
• For Chicago, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic and Alex Caruso are listed as questionable. Ayo Dosunmu is listed as probable.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Miami Heat

MIA -5.5, total: 228.5
Pace: MIN (2nd), MIA (29th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jordan McLaughlin is listed as questionable for Minnesota.
• This will be the second end of a back-to-back for Miami.

Indiana Pacers @ San Antonio Spurs

SAS -5.5, total: 237
Pace: IND (18th), SAS (5th)

Situations to monitor:

• Malcolm Brogdon (concussion) will miss the next two games. Lance Stephenson (ankle) has also been ruled out.
• Doug McDermott and Joshua Primo will be listed as questionable with illnesses. 

Milwaukee Bucks @ Golden State Warriors

MIL -1.5, total: 235.5
Pace: MIL (7th), GSW (12th)

Situations to monitor:

• Draymond Green, Otto Porter and Gary Payton will remain out for the Warriors.

Toronto Raptors @ Denver Nuggets

DEN -5.5, total: 223.5
Pace: TOR (24th), DEN (20th)

Situations to monitor:

• OG Anunoby and Malachi Flynn will remain sidelined for Toronto. 
• For Denver, Will Barton (ankle) and Aaron Gordon (foot) are listed as questionable.

Sacramento Kings @ Utah Jazz

UTA -9.5, total: 230
Pace: SAC (6th), UTA (19th)

Situations to monitor:

• Bojan Bogdanovic (leg) missed Friday’s game and is questionable to play.

Washington Wizards @ Portland Trail Blazers

WAS -6, total: 220.5
Pace: WAS (27th), POR (17th)

Situations to monitor:

• Anfernee Simons will miss at least the next 1-2 weeks for Portland.
• Kristaps Porzingis will sit the second end of a back-to-back for Washington.

Matchups to Target | NBA DFS First Look

Evan Mobley vs. Chicago Bulls

Mobley continues to log huge minutes at center in Jarrett Allen’s absence. Over his last three games, Mobley is averaging 21.0 rebounding chances per game, good for the fourth-most in the NBA during that stretch. His rebounding rate jumps to around 30% with Allen off the floor and over his last three contests with Allen out of the lineup, Mobley has scored 53.2, 55 and 45 fantasy points. He finds himself in a good spot Saturday, facing a Bulls team that has struggled to defend opposing centers for much of the season. They are also allowing the most assists per game to the position. With Allen and Caris LeVert sidelined, Mobley has taken on a larger role, attempting 15, 15 and 12 field goals over his last three outings.

Klay Thompson vs. Milwaukee Bucks

The advanced DVP doesn’t look amazing but Thompson is one of my favorite GPP plays of the slate. Now logging 30-plus minutes, there is serious upside with Thompson, especially after playing 33 and 34 minutes over his last two games. During that span he has attempted 20 and 23 field goals and over the last two weeks, Thompson is second on the team with a 27.6% usage rate, right behind Stephen Curry. Milwaukee is a solid defensive unit, but they continue to allow opposing teams to let it rain from three-point range. In fact, 38.2% of the points surrendered by the Bucks this season have come from beyond the arc, the highest rate in the entire NBA. They are also allowing the sixth-most points per game to spot-up shooters (30.6), making this a sneaky eruption spot for Thompson.

Rudy Gobert vs. Sacramento Kings

Gobert’s floor is always high because he is essentially a walking double-double, accomplishing the feat in nine of his last 12 outings. No player in basketball is averaging more rebounding chances per game than Gobert (24.8), who is converting nearly 60% of those opportunities. Now he faces a Kings team that is allowing the fourth-worst field goal percentage at the rim this season (67.5%), which obviously bodes well for Gobert, as 90% of his field goal attempts have come from within four feet of the basket. Sacramento is also coughing up the sixth-most putback points per game on the year (6.9), while Gobert’s 3.4 points per game off the play type this season are good for the second-most in basketball.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Elijah Hughes vs. WAS — With Portland missing so many players, Hughes got the start last game against Utah, logging 21 minutes in a blowout. It is possible he starts again and at minimum salary on DraftKings, he really won’t have to do much. And there will be plenty of opportunities for him with Anfernee Simons still sidelined.