NBA DFS Preview - First Look (2/17)

Thursday is the final NBA DFS slate before the All-Star break. It is a smaller five-game slate after a massive 11-gamer Wednesday. Let’s take an early look at Thursday’s action and as always, be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer.

NBA Vegas Data for February 17 | NBA DFS First Look

Miami Heat @ Charlotte Hornets

MIA -4.5, total: 224.5
Pace: MIA (29th), CHA (2nd)

Situations to monitor:

Tyler Herro will remain sidelined for Miami, while Jimmy Butler (shoulder) is once again listed as questionable. Caleb Martin (Achilles) will miss his sixth consecutive game.
Gordon Hayward and Cody Martin will remain out of the Hornets lineup.

Washington Wizards @ Brooklyn Nets

BKN -4.5, total: 216
Pace: WAS (23rd), BKN (10th)

Situations to monitor:

Kyrie Irving will remain unavailable for Brooklyn.
For Washington, Kristaps Porzingis will remain sidelined. Rui Hachimura, who missed Wednesday’s game with an ankle injury, is listed as questionable.

Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Pelicans

DAL -2.5, total: 215
Pace: DAL (30th), NOP (21st)

Situations to monitor:

Reggie Bullock (hip) is listed as questionable for Dallas.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Milwaukee Bucks

MIL -6.5, total: 224.5
Pace: PHI (28th), MIL (8th)

Situations to monitor:

James Harden won’t make his Philadelphia debut until after the All-Star break.
For Milwaukee, both Grayson Allen and Wesley Matthews are listed as questionable.

Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Clippers

LAC -11, total: 228.5
Pace: HOU (1st), LAC (14th)

Situations to monitor:

Both Christian Wood and Kevin Porter sat out Wednesday due to illness. They will likely be questionable for Thursday.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Alperen Sengun is averaging 1.14 fantasy points per minute with Christian Wood off the floor this season

With Wood unavailable Wednesday, Sengun made his fifth start of the season. He got off to a slow start but ultimately finished with 19 points, 14 rebounds, three assists, one block and two steals in 28 minutes. Sengun has shown serious upside whenever the Rockets actually give him meaningful minutes and if Wood is out again Thursday, Sengun will once again be on everyone’s radar. With Wood off the court this season, Sengun is averaging 1.14 fantasy points per minute, while sporting a healthy 23% usage rate, 27% rebounding rate and 13% assist rate. In five starts this season, the rookie is averaging a solid line of 10.2 points, 7.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.0 blocks and 1.0 steals per game. A matchup with the Clippers is very favorable for opposing centers, too.

Reggie Jackson is sporting a 29% usage rate over his last three games

Los Angeles has run a rather deep rotation for much of the season, but Jackson has now logged 37, 38 and 40 minutes over his last three games. During that same span, Jackson’s usage rate is hovering around the 29% mark, while also averaging a healthy 91 touches per game and 9.0 minutes of possession per game. Only Luka Doncic is averaging more time of possession than Jackson during that time frame. He now gets an awesome matchup with an awful Rockets defense that is allowing the third-most points per possession (0.93) and the fourth-highest field goal percentage (44.4%) to opposing ball-handlers out of the pick and roll this season.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

The Houston Rockets — If both Kevin Porter and Christian Wood remain out of the Houston lineup on Thursday, both Dennis Schroder and Alperen Sengun, who are both in the mid-$4,000 range on DraftKings, will stand out as the top value plays of the slate. Both players had fantastic games on Wednesday and should see plenty of usage and opportunity.