Week 16 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again.

This week’s NFL moneyline underdog is the same as last week, because the data is simply too strong. There are home teams that are tempting picks, but Minnesota (+3), Houston (+2.5) and Tennessee (+2.5) are all likely to start backup quarterbacks. If I’m going to pick a home team with a backup quarterback, I need a historic pattern of success. There is only one team that provides that level of confidence this week.

Again, these are high-risk plays for a reason. They will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished.

Each week, I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two or even three underdogs I like for the upcoming schedule of games.

Let’s take a look at my favorite moneyline underdog for Week 16 of the 2023 season.

Week 15 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

(+115, Bet365)

It certainly takes a leap of faith to bet the Steelers after their performances the last three weeks. Pittsburgh has lost home games to Arizona and New England, and then was pummeled at Indianapolis. However, they now face a divisional opponent, at home, and that opponent has significant players out due to injury.

The Steelers are still rank close to the Bengals, ranking just three spots lower than Cincinnati in team DVOA, 11th to 14th. Despite all their struggles, Pittsburgh holds a massive advantage over the Bengals in defensive DVOA, ranking ninth overall to the Bengals abysmal 26th.

The Bengals are still without quarterback Joe Burrow and likely without wideout Ja’Marr Chase, who hurt his shoulder in last week’s overtime win over Minnesota. Jake Browning has made four starts this season, and the Bengals have gone 3-1. However, the only time Browning did not have his full cadre of receiving weapons was the first game against the Steelers, which produced a moderate 227 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Browning is a capable backup, but was much worse in the Week 12 home matchup without wide receiver Tee Higgins. Per our FTN Splits Tool, Browning was worse in all significant statistics.

A screenshot of a computer

Description automatically generated

There is simply no better spot to back Pittsburgh than as a late-season home underdog. Head coach Mike Tomlin is 6-1 as a home underdog in December or later, with only a 0.5 non-cover against the Patriots in 2017. If you remember, that game should have probably been an outright win for the Steelers, if not for a mysterious call at the goal line. As a betting underdog in the at home, Tomlin is a superb 17-6-3 (73.9%) ATS, including five straight outright wins during the months of December and January.

We are getting a better ML value than usual because of backup quarterback Mason Rudolph, who has enjoyed success ATS in a small sample size in these situations. Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS as an underdog with Rudolph at quarterback, including 2-0 as a home underdog.

I’m backing the better overall team in Pittsburgh who is desperate for a victory after losing three straight games.