Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jake Ferguson

Jake FergusonReceiving Yards

Right now, Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-117/-112).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-112) after it opened @ 26.5 (-112).

Pros

The Dallas Cowboys boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.43 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Jake Ferguson to be a much bigger part of his team’s passing offense this week (12.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (5.8% in games he has played).

Cons

The Cowboys are an enormous 11.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Jake Ferguson’s sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 84.5% to 53.9%.
Jake Ferguson’s pass-catching efficiency has worsened this season, averaging a mere 3.03 yards-per-target vs a 8.06 rate last season.
Jake Ferguson has been among the worst TEs in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.92 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 16th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards