Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Jets vs. Texans
Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 54.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (-114).
Pros
- The New York Jets will be rolling out backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The predictive model expects the New York Jets offensive approach to skew 1.6% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett now calling the plays.
- The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- At a mere 27.04 seconds per play, the Jets offense checks in as the 10th-quickest paced in football (adjusted for context) this year.
- The Texans pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency against wide receivers this year, yielding 9.19 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in the league.
Cons
- Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being forecasted in this game) usually mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and higher ground volume.
- The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing game stats across the board.
- With a subpar 58.2% Adjusted Catch Rate (18th percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson ranks among the least sure-handed receivers in football when it comes to wideouts.
- Garrett Wilson’s pass-game efficiency has worsened this year, averaging a measly 6.44 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.63 figure last year.
- With a bad 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson has been as one of the leading pass-catching wide receivers in football in the open field.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
