Team Profile
Chicago Bears
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-11.6% 25thOff DVOA
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-1.1% 26thPassing DVOA
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-12.3% 23rdRushing DVOA
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4.8% 23rdDef DVOA
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4.5% 15thDef Passing DVOA
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5.3% 31stDef Rushing DVOA
2024 Team Stats
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Points For18.9 26th
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Points Against22.8 13th
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Yards Per Game295.0 31st
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Yards Allowed Per Game359.0 26th
Chicago Bears kicker Cairo Santos is a solid fantasy starter for Week 4 against the Los Angeles Rams. In the Bears' 21-16 loss to the Colts, Santos made one of two field-goal attempts. After a strong season opener where he scored 10 points, his production has dipped to seven and four points in the following weeks. While the Bears have faced offensive struggles, they have improved since the opener. Crucially for Santos, the Rams' injury issues may hinder their ability to sustain drives, potentially giving the Bears more scoring opportunities. Notably, four of Santos' six field goals this season have been from 50 yards or longer, showcasing his reliability from distance. However, given the Bears' offensive inconsistencies, Santos is likely to remain a low-end fantasy option on a weekly basis.
Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet is a recommended starter this week, thanks to a favorable matchup against a struggling Los Angeles Rams secondary. The Rams allow a league-high 11.53 yards per target and a 93.3% catch rate to opposing tight ends this season. In Week 3, with Keenan Allen (heel) sidelined, Kmet had one of his best performances, tying his career-high in receptions and narrowly missing a second 100-yard game. After starting the season behind Gerald Everett, Kmet has out-snapped him in the last two games, although he still isn't on the field as frequently as last year. If Allen cannot play or is less than fully healthy in Week 4, Kmet should have ample opportunities against a Rams defense that struggles to cover the middle of the field. The Bears could have a full array of weapons for the first time since Week 1, as Allen is listed as questionable. After being limited in practice earlier in the week, he returned to full practice on Friday, which could impact Kmet's target share. The Rams have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game and the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends. Start Kmet as a low-end TE1 this week, and I hope his breakout continues.
Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore is a solid WR2 option this week against the vulnerable Los Angeles Rams secondary. Moore has seen consistent target numbers in his last three games, recording eight, ten, and ten targets. This reliable production is crucial for building chemistry with a rookie quarterback. While he has scored double-digit fantasy points in every game, he has yet to have a breakout performance or find the end zone. Interestingly, Rome Odunze became the first Bears receiver to surpass 100 yards in a game and score a touchdown. This week, the Bears may have a full complement of receivers for the first time since Week 1, as veteran Keenan Allen (heel) is listed as questionable. After being limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday, Allen returned to full practice on Friday, suggesting he might be ready to play. While the Bears will likely integrate all three receivers into their game plan upon Allen's return, this could dilute their target shares. Nevertheless, the matchup against the Rams looks promising, as they have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts and were notably exploited last week by Jauan Jennings. Overall, the Rams have given the most PPR points to perimeter receivers. Whether or not Allen plays, Moore deserves a spot in fantasy lineups.
The Chicago Bears' running back Roschon Johnson is poised for increased usage in Week 4 against the Los Angeles Rams. Reports indicate that the Bears want more opportunities for their young back, especially as starter D'Andre Swift has struggled. In recent games, the Bears have experimented with different carry splits among Swift, Khalil Herbert, and Johnson. Given their current ranking of 31st in both yards per game and yards per attempt, there's nowhere to go but up. Sunday's matchup against a Rams run defense that ranks 25th could be the perfect chance for improvement. The Bears missed a good opportunity in Week 3 against a vulnerable Colts defense, raising concerns about Shane Waldron's run scheme and its adaptability to the available talent. Johnson showed promise in Week 3, averaging 3.5 yards per carry with a more physical running style. While Swift led in rushing plays with a 56% snap rate, Johnson carved out a role on passing downs, taking 51% of the snaps compared to Swift's 42%. Johnson also outperformed Swift in the red zone, logging a 47% snap rate versus Swift's 29%. For fantasy managers needing a dart throw at running back, Johnson's recent usage and anticipated uptick in touches make him an intriguing option this week.
The Chicago Bears' running back, D'Andre Swift, is a borderline RB3 for Sunday's matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, which offers a favorable opportunity. Swift has expressed his frustration with the Bears' struggling run game, stating, "It's high," after a Week 3 loss to the Colts. Last week, he saw a season-low 53% of the snaps, managing just 15 touches for a modest total of 42 yards. With backups Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert getting more playing time, it is getting harder to keep starting Swift. With the Bears ranking 31st in yards per game and yards per attempt, there's nowhere to go but up. Swift is averaging only 1.8 yards per carry and 1.7 yards after contact, highlighting the difficulties faced by both him and the offensive line this season. However, Sunday's game against a Rams defense that ranks 25th against the run could be a turning point. The Bears missed a chance for a breakout performance against the Colts, raising concerns about Shane Waldron's run scheme and its adaptability to the players available. Given that the Rams are a favorable matchup for running backs, Swift has the potential to emerge from his slump and provide flex-level production. The Rams have the fourth-lowest stuff rate, allow the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt, and rank among the top for rushing success rate and total rushing yards allowed. Fantasy managers in 12-team leagues or larger can approach this matchup with cautious optimism.