Many may have forgotten about Matteo Berrettini, who peaked in ranking back in early 2022 at No. 6 in the world. It was in the summer of 2021 when Berrettini made the Wimbledon final, taking the opening set off Novak Djokovic. Since then, he’s caught a bit of the injury bug. He was limited to just 44 matches in 2022, then 26 in 2023, followed by 49 last season, though, 37 of those 49 matches came in the final 4.5 months of the season. That said, he was relatively healthy from mid-June through the end of the season and managed to build his ranking from No. 95 to No. 34. With a ranking outside the Top 32, he’s unfortunately exposed to potentially drawing a seeded opponent at the Australian Open. However, he’s in the Brisbane draw to kick off his season, which should give him a chance to jump two players, thus awarding him a seed at the Australian Open. Berrettini currently holds the 13th-best ELO rating per Tennis Abstract, as well as the 12th-best UTR, meaning he finished 2024 at a level well above his actual world ranking. I expect oddsmakers to not credit Berrettini for his strong second half of 2024, where he went 27-10 overall.
Alex Michelsen
Next, we move on to an American in Alex Michelsen. Let me just say, the state of American tennis is at an all-time high. You have Taylor Fritz coming off a US Open and Year End final. Then there’s Tommy Paul, Frances Tiafoe, Ben Shelton and Sebastian Korda inside the Top 25. Many seem to be sleeping on Michelsen, who is the No. 7 American at a world ranking of No. 41 entering 2025. While Michelsen finished 2024 just 42-33, he went 22-11 in his final 33 matches, post Wimbledon, which included a pair of finals in Newport and Winston-Salem. He was on track for a third final in Metz before suffering an oblique injury mid-semifinal against Benjamin Bonzi. Michelsen has your typical American live arm with a big first serve, but he’s going to need to be better in the ace department. That said, he’s not your typical serve bot, as he can play from the baseline off both wings, and he won just under 39% of his return points over those final 33 matches. Over the course of the 2024 season, he was 18th among Top 50 players in return points won, just above the Top 50 average. I expect the 20-year-old to make serious strides in 2025, having a complete offseason under his belt to learn from 2024 and develop a better serve. That should get him closer to an 84% hold rate (80.5% in 2024). If he can do that, given how well his return game already is, we could be looking at a year-end Top 20 player.
Novak Djokovic
It feels really weird to think Novak Djokovic could be undervalued heading into the 2025 season, but here we are. Just one year ago, the conversation around Djokovic was “will he win the Golden Slam?” Well, he went slamless in 2024, but he did find the final piece to his tennis story in a Gold Medal. Djokovic cleared house throughout his team, notably parting ways with long-time coach Goran Ivanesovic and later joining Elena Rybakina for 2025. Djokovic made huge news just days into the offseason, announcing that former rival and recently retired Andy Murray would join his coaching box for the 2025 season. Initially, I didn’t really understand the move. Yes, Murray’s tennis IQ is perhaps one of the best we’ve ever seen, but with Djokovic nearing the end of his career, whether that’s this year, two years, three years or maybe four plus years down the line, I would have expected a more high-profile option. After processing the move, though, it makes sense. Not only does Murray have strong insight for how the game is currently being played, but there might not be anyone else who understands just how much Djokovic needs to put into his fitness to play at his highest possible level. After looking exceedingly vulnerable at Slam level in 2024, I think Djokovic is primed for a major bounce-back season in 2025. Djokovic is sitting at +410 (FanDuel) to win the Australian Open, +400 (Caesars) to win Roland Garros, +400 (DraftKings) to win Wimbledon, and +300 (Caesars) to win the US Open. Particularly in Australia and at Wimbledon, where Djokovic has had perhaps more success than anyone else, I see some value on Djokovic to pick up Slam No. 25.
Overvalued
Andrey Rublev
Andrey Rublev finished 2024 with a 62% win rate, going just 4-7 versus Top 20 opponents and lost each of his final five in that split. From the start of 2019 through the Canada Masters this past season, Rublev had been 48-45 in that split. What is more concerning is Rublev went just 7-5 versus opponents outside the Top 100, after losing just four times in that split since the start of 2020. The ongoing on-court rage issue has gotten more and more excessive, at one point leading to a default in the Dubai semifinals. Not only has Rublev’s game begun to drop off a bit, but the rest of the Tour knows his weaknesses and how to exploit them, while he doesn’t seem to have an answer on how to counterpunch those attacks. Additionally, he’s battling himself mentally, and eventually that’s just a battle he cannot overcome. He continues to be treated as a Top 10 player (and rightfully so), but there are more holes than ever in his game, and 2025 could be a very profitable year in fading Andrey Rublev as a result.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
This one is simple. If you don’t know of Mpetshi Perricard, prepare yourself for John Isner reincarnated. Mpetshi Perricard has a massive 6-foot-8, 220-pound frame and hits absolute missiles for a serve. He’s not shy to go aggressively on second serves as well. I expect his serve to be virtually impossible to defend both indoors and on grass, but outdoors, in slower, grittier conditions where opponents can get the ball back in play, he’s going to struggle from the baseline. To his credit, he is a bit more mobile than most serve bots, which is quite impressive for his size, but it’s still easy to wear down his groundstrokes. There’s value in fading any serve bot as a favorite, regardless of conditions, but in Mpetshi Perricard’s case, even more so outdoors, as I alluded to earlier. That said, one of the best preseason bets on the board is Mpetshi Perricard to be the 2025 Ace Leader (-145, BetMGM). Going off everyone’s 2024 aces/match, if Mpetshi Perricard maintains his 2024 average (19) and plays just 50 matches in 2025, he’d still maintain a 30-ace lead over Hubert Hurkacz, who finished second in aces/match (13.15) if Hurkacz plays 70 matches in 2025. The most matches Hurkacz has played in a single season is 68 back in 2023. If Mpetshi Perricard stays healthy, he will be the 2025 ace leader, as he played 28 ATP level matches in 2024 from May 20 through the end of the season and will now be seeded at the Australian Open, giving him four more months to accumulate matches.
Nick Kyrgios
This one is pretty simple. I’m a Nick Kyrgios fan. It’s great to see him back on tour, and I want nothing more than to see one more run like he had in 2022, but I’m very pessimistic about Kyrgios’ return. After missing the start of 2023, Kyrgios came back for one match during grass court season and suffered a setback, ultimately ending his 2023 season. He never returned in 2024, rehabbing both wrist and knee injuries. So since the 2022 ATP Finals (and that was doubles), Kyrgios has played one match in two years. Due to his name and the level he had played at prior to these injuries, it would not surprise me if he’s well respected in betting markets, especially Down Under. I’ll be looking to fade Kyrgios early in the season.
End of 2024 Top 10
Carlos Alcaraz
Novak Djokovic
Alexander Zverev
Taylor Fritz
Daniil Medvedev
Jack Draper
Alex De Minaur
Jannik Sinner (I am assuming WADA hits him with a suspension. No. 1 if not suspended, bump everyone ahead down one)
Matteo Berrettini
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Player Inside Top 10 Most Likely To Be Unseeded At US Open
Grigor Dimitrov
Player Outside Top 150 Most Likely To Break Top 50
Jenson Brooksby
Player Outside Top 80 Most Likely To Break Top 20
Hamad Medjedovic
Player Inside Top 40 Most Likely To Fall Outside Top 100
Nicolas Jarry
Way Too Early Slam Predictions
Australian Open
Pick: Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic has won the Australian Open in nine of his last 13 appearances, and prior to last season’s semifinal exit against Jannik Sinner, he had won each of his previous four appearances. I just want to say that Djokovic at +410 (FanDuel) to win the Australian Open could be the best value of the season on the men’s side. WADA has held off on making a decision on Sinner, stating no decision will be made until 2025. If Sinner is actually suspended, we would see Djokovic’s number to win this tournament instantly cut in half.
Sleeper: Alex De Minaur
French Open
Pick: Carlos Alcaraz
Even if Jannik Sinner isn’t suspended, I expect Alcaraz to win the French Open and defend his title. Alcaraz is the best player in the world on clay right now (and slower, grittier hardcourts). Zverev gave him a solid run in the final last year and will once again be one of his biggest threats next to Novak Djokovic, who defeated Alcaraz in the Paris Olympics Gold Medal match. While I don’t think Alcaraz is as dominant on clay as his compatriot Rafael Nadal was, I do think it would be foolish to view anyone other than Alcaraz as the odds-on favorite at this event. He is simply too athletic and moves far too well on this surface for anyone to expose him.
Sleeper: Lorenzo Musetti
Wimbledon
Pick: Novak Djokovic
If Djokovic goes back-to-back years without winning a Slam, now at age 37 (38 by Wimbledon), then I would say it’s fair to say his career will be coming to a close. After winning the Gold Medal in Paris, there’s simply nothing else for Djokovic to do in tennis, aside from increasing his record 24 Grand Slams. What better place to do so in 2025 than at the All England Club with Andy Murray in his coaching box, lifting the Challenge Cup together? Djokovic has been in the Wimbledon final each of his last six appearances, and all I have to say is it would not be wise to expect anything different in 2025.
Sleeper: Jack Draper
US Open
Pick: Jannik Sinner
Perhaps it’s because I’m personally a Carlos Alcaraz fan, but I really believe WADA is going to hit Sinner with a suspension. They have mentioned 1-2 years, but I would like to believe there’s some sort of a settlement agreement between the two parties that only hands Sinner a six-month suspension. If this happens in February, Sinner would be out until just before the US Open, and I have to believe he will come back with a vengeance. He was undoubtedly the best player in the world in 2024, and with a chance to defend his title in New York, likely as the villain, I’ll bank on Sinner collecting Grand Slam No. 3 to conclude what would be a very short 2025 season.
Sleeper: Brandon Nakashima
WTA
Undervalued
Elena Rybakina
While her match-by-match prices may not undervalue her anticipated level, seeing Rybakina at +1200 (FanDuel) to win the Australian Open does at least signal to me that oddsmakers continue to view her behind Sabalenka, Swiatek, Gauff and even Qinwen Zheng, potentially among a couple others. I get it. Rybakina had a dubious 2024 season, which began looking quite good after ousting Aryna Sabalenka 6-0, 6-3 in the Brisbane final. It was a rough few months to follow, however, as she was forced to pull out of Indian Wells and Rome, both events in which she would have defended her 2023 titles. She additionally played just six matches following her Wimbledon semifinal exit. In the midst of all this, there was a pretty rocky breakup between her and coach Stefano Vukov, which actually left her without a coach at the WTA Finals. In fact, it was at the WTA Finals where she announced Goran Ivanisevic would coach her beginning in 2025. As we know, Ivanisevic is the former coach of Novak Djokovic. This could not be a more perfect partnership. Ivanisevic turned Djokovic’s serve from average to one of the best on tour, and now he’ll work with arguably the best service player on the WTA tour. The sky appears to be the limit for Rybakina, and I suspect Ivanisevic, who worked with a fitness and health freak in Djokovic, will be able to get behind Rybakina’s countless bouts with illness. As disappointing a 2024 season as Rybakina had as far as staying on the court goes, when she actually was on the court, she did go 43-11, giving her the third-best win percentage on tour last season behind Sabalenka and Swiatek. Rybakina additionally 11-6 versus Top 20 players, her best seasonal win rate in that split. Among her best 2024 results includes the Brisbane title, another Miami final, Abu Dhabi title, Doha final, Stuttgart title, Madrid semifinal and Wimbledon semifinal. In the rare instances in which Rybakina is an underdog in 2025 (albeit perhaps not as rare early), I’ll be backing her, and as of this writing, given how slick and quick the Melbourne courts play, she is my pick to win the 2025 Australian Open.
Naomi Osaka
If the Rybakina coaching change wasn’t a big enough story, Naomi Osaka went out and brought in Patrick Mouratoglou to head her team in 2025. With all the success Mouratoglou had with Serena Williams, he brought out the best in Holger Rune as well more recently. I really love this move by Osaka, as with how good her serve and forehand can play, Mouratoglou should be able to mirror Serena’s game into Osaka. 2024 was Osaka’s return from maternity leave, and while she went just 22-18, there were some bright spots in the middle of the season. Coming back from maternity leave is difficult, so the inconsistencies in her game, especially since she played pretty limited schedules since COVID-19, was not overly surprising. Here’s one thing I can confidently say. Osaka did not hire Patrick Mouratoglou, nor did Patrick Mouratoglou agree to work with Osaka for Osaka to play a limited schedule. Osaka’s brightest point of 2024 may have been her final event in Beijing, her only event in 2024 working with Mouratoglou, in which she made the second week, ultimately being forced to retire against Coco Gauff at a set a piece. We know what Osaka’s ceiling can be, and she was priced relatively cheap for the greater part of the 2024 season. With a complete offseason under Mouratoglou’s guidance, I expect a very good Osaka throughout 2025.
Belinda Bencic
Lastly, I included someone coming off maternity leave, after mentioning how difficult it can be returning from maternity leave. I think Bencic’s case might be a little different, however. My understanding is that Bencic was ready to return to tour in time for the US Open, but given the protected ranking rules, she opted to wait for Billie Jean King Cup, ultimately playing a pair of ITF’s to prepare for Billie Jean King Cup, and then a $125K event to conclude her season. Not so shockingly, Bencic lost her second match at the $75K Hamburg event, but it didn’t take her very long to find form, winning her next seven matches before losing to Alycia Parks in the $125K Angers Final. I don’t think folks truly appreciate how good Bencic is. If we exclude the 2020 COVID-19-shortened season, Bencic has finished with a 69% or better win percentage in three of her last four seasons. She can play on all three surfaces, perhaps at her best on slick, quicker courts, which she’ll see plenty of early in the season between the summer Down Under, Abu Dhabi, Doha and Miami. Getting a jump start on her 2025 preparation by playing some ITF and $125K events could really pay off for Bencic, and I’ll be buying her early on in 2025 before oddsmakers begin respecting her. This is a player I expect to be seeded at the US Open, just like Elina Svitolina did in 2023 in her return from maternity leave, and that was in April, so Bencic will have a three month head start.
Overvalued
Iga Swiatek
I’m very curious how 2025 goes for Iga Swiatek, as 2024 had a rocky finish. She was curiously sidelined from the end of the US Open until the start of Riyadh Finals, serving a provisional suspension after testing positive for trimetazidine, which is a banned heart medication. Interestingly, she and coach Tomasz Wiktorowski split on October 4, the same day her provisional suspension ended. There weren’t exactly any signs of a split coming, though it was clear her level wasn’t what it had been in previous years under Wiktorowski. Between the coaching change, a few nagging injuries in the second half of 2024 and the positive test, I am pretty pessimistic on Swiatek in 2025. Opposing players already know her weaknesses, which is why many rivals have not only caught up to, but in my opinion, surpassed her overall level. She will continue to be priced like Iga Swiatek, and if you’ve followed me in previous years, you already know the types of opponents I like to fade her against. It will certainly be a more common theme for me early in 2025, especially before the clay season begins, as I still expect her to assert her dominance on that surface, given how well she moves on the clay.
Danielle Collins
Collins is an interesting case, as for virtually all of 2024, the expectation, which came directly from her mouth, was that she would be retiring at the conclusion of the season. Instead, she threw a curveball in mid-October that she would be playing in 2025, citing fertility issues as a motive for continuing her playing career. While that’s disappointing to hear for her and her husband’s dream of starting a family, it’ll be nice to have her remain on Tour, given she’s still quite young (just 31 years old) and arguably coming off the best year of her career, highlighted by a 15-match win streak, which included titles in both Miami and Charleston. Collins can be a very streaky player. When she’s in a good rhythm, her ball-striking can win her any match. When she’s out of sorts, she can go on long winless droughts, as evidenced by her five-match win streak to conclude 2025. Given her No. 11 ranking and excellent 2024 season, oddsmakers will respect her quite a bit, but her motivation for playing at a high level is in question. She’s been vocal about her lack of desire to travel (though she did say she enjoys being able to be a tourist). It was in 2023 when she played in just four events outside of North America and Australia. In 2024, that number jumped eight. I typically love backing Collins Down Under, as the conditions are quite favorable to her game, and I would love if she has success throughout the Australian Summer, as it will gain her even more respect moving forward, which should lead to her being a great fade option in the Middle East and Sunshine Double swings.
Simona Halep
Lastly, like Iga Swiatek, Simona Halep got popped for a positive PED test, only the ITIA dished out a lengthy suspension, which she fought to get thrown away. After a year-plus long fight, it was reduced to make her eligible for return this past March. Since Halep was out so long, she kept herself in match shape so she’d be able to resume her career immediately after regaining eligibility. She ultimately got hurt during the clay court season, which kept her out until October where she played a pair of events in Hong Kong, going 1-2. In what I saw in the small five-match sample, it certainly appears as though Halep’s game disappeared a bit. While she remains a pusher, she doesn’t have as much rally tolerance and wears down a bit easier. Her body had already been breaking down a bit prior to the suspension, picking up nagging injuries on a regular basis. In Halep’s five matches last season, she closed at the following odds over at Pinnacle
Miami Open vs Paula Badosa: -141
Paris $125K vs McCartney Kessler: -333
Hong Kong vs Arina Rodionova: -204
Hong Kong vs Anna Blinkova: -175
Hong Kong vs Yue Yuan: +100
Those are all quite respectable numbers for Halep. I don’t expect anything different, as her name alone gets her respect. Perhaps a regular offseason means she’ll be fitter to begin the season. That said, she is now 33 years old, has played five matches since the 2022 US Open and lacks any real weapons in her game. The clock is ticking for Halep to make a return to her best possible level, and I’ll be betting against that happening.
End of 2024 Top 10
Elena Rybakina
Karolina Muchova
Aryna Sabalenka
Qinwen Zheng
Coco Gauff
Naomi Osaka
Iga Swiatek
Mirra Andreeva
Jessica Pegula
Paula Badosa
Player Inside Top 10 Most Likely To Be Unseeded At US Open
Barbora Krejcikova
Player Outside Top 150 Most Likely To Break Top 50
Liv Hovde
Player Outside Top 80 Most Likely To Break Top 20
Belinda Bencic
Player Inside Top 40 Most Likely To Fall Outside Top 100
Dayana Yastremska
Way Too Early Slam Predictions
Australian Open
Pick: Elena Rybakina
There’s really not much more to add from what I discussed earlier about Rybakina. While I do still have a connection to a member of her team, information won’t be as easy to come by with Stefano Vukov out of the picture, but everything I know from previous years indicates to me that her best opportunity to peak is always going to be early in the season because the physical and mental toll of the season really limits her ceiling over the course of a two-week event as the year drags on. With conditions Down Under really favoring her game, fresh legs and no mental fatigue, regardless of how good Sabalenka has been at this event, Rybakina is my pick to begin the 2025 season with a Grand Slam title.
Sleeper: Madison Keys
French Open
Pick: Karolina Muchova
If Karolina Muchova stays healthy throughout the season, not only will she be one of the favorites to win the French Open, but she’ll be in the mix at all four Grand Slams. She is the closest comp on Tour to Ashleigh Barty with the variety in her game. Barty was a bit more offensive minded, but nonetheless, this is a clear Top 5 player on Tour when healthy. Muchova has won 75% of her matches (59-20) since the start of 2023, including a run to the French Open final in 2023. I think this is the year Iga Swiatek is unable to defend her title, between the clear dropoff in level throughout the second half of 2024, the change in coaches and the positive PED test. There’s been a bit of a change of guard in the WTA, and those with experience in the second weeks of Slams seem to have a clear edge on the rest of the field. Since the start of 2023, Muchova has made the semifinals or better in three of her six appearances at Slam level.
Sleeper: Paula Badosa
Wimbledon
Pick: Aryna Sabalenka
Sabalenka has run pretty horribly in London. She made the semifinals in 2021 but lost to Karolina Pliskova after maintaining a set advantage. In 2022, she, along with fellow Belarussian and Russian players were banned from the event. In 2023, she once again made the semifinals but again lost after maintaining a set advantage, this time to Ons Jabeur. Last season, arriving at the Championships as the clear favorite, she suffered a shoulder injury while training, which ultimately forced her to withdraw from the event before ever taking the court. Everything is going to click for her at some point, and this very well could be the year, given the form she has carried over the last couple of seasons, particularly on the grass court surface. As long as she is healthy this go around, it will be her event to lose.
Sleeper: Belinda Bencic
US Open
Pick: Naomi Osaka
Truth be told, I think Osaka could win the Australian Open, but if she and Patrick Mouratoglou need some time at the start of the season to truly transcend her game back into Grand Slam material, then her best chance to win a Grand Slam title will come in New York this summer, as her clay and grass court history have been pretty mediocre. After all, Osaka has won two US Open titles.
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