Well, we have made it to the final major of the 2024 season. It has been a busy summer, as Wimbledon went straight into the Olympics, which then went right into the Canada and Cincinnati Masters events, and now here we are for the US Open.
Defending Champions Coco Gauff and Novak Djokovic return, while Iga Swiatek looks to add her second US Open title. Men’s World No. 1 Jannik Sinner arrives amid his PED controversy, while Aryna Sabalenka returns to the major scene after being forced to withdraw from Wimbledon. Rafael Nadal will be skipping the US Open, as he looks to stay fresh for the final run of his career. Overall, it should be a terrific event, so let’s dive into the two draws.
Top Four Seeds: Jannik Sinner, Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Tommy Paul
Best Unseeded Player: Alex Michelsen
Best Hard Elo Rating: Jannik Sinner
Best Raw Hard Rating: Jannik Sinner
Best UTR: Jannik Sinner
Sleeper (with quarter price): Tommy Paul (+1300, DraftKings)
The opening quarter of the men’s draw is sure to have a lot of attention. If you’ve been living under a rock for the last week or so, a story broke that Jannik Sinner tested positive for PEDs twice back in March. Due to the low levels found in testing, he avoided a formal suspension, though he was provisionally suspended twice back in April for just a few days over the course of both suspensions. This has led to some speculation whether traces could be found as far back as his Australian Open title. I will note it is a bit suspicious that Sinner’s fitness levels were excellent through Miami.
Notably, once the two short suspensions took place is when Sinner’s season began to show signs of slowing down due to fitness and health issues. Sinner did win Cincinnati, though, but there were signs of a hip issue throughout that run. I don’t want to flat out say Sinner should be avoided. However, I think he’s being overvalued given what we now know. He has been dealt a tough draw, with Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Tommy Paul, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Arthur Fils being the top seeds in the quarter. Sinner shouldn’t have any trouble getting to the fourth round (barring a health issue), but it’ll get trickier in the second week. Tsitsipas and Auger-Aliassime are projected to meet in the third round, and the winner would be set up for a clash with Medvedev in the fourth round.
Personally, I fail to find any value in the quarter markets here, as the top five seeds are all priced relatively short, while the likes of Tsitsipas and Auger-Aliassime will need to beat one another, Medvedev, and potentially Sinner just to win the quarter. Tommy Paul would be the best option, though, at +1300 (DraftKings). He still potentially needs to beat Fils, Sinner and Medvedev en route to a semifinal. While I don’t expect Sinner to make it through this quarter, there just isn’t good value on the board.
Top Four Seeds: Carlos Alcaraz, Hubert Hurkacz, Alex De Minaur, Sebastian Korda
Best Unseeded Player: Denis Shapovalov
Best Hard Elo Rating: Carlos Alcaraz
Best Raw Hard Rating: Carlos Alcaraz
Best UTR: Carlos Alcaraz
Sleeper (with quarter price): Matteo Arnaldi (+5000, FanDuel)
The second quarter should be relatively straight-forward. As long as he’s healthy, Carlos Alcaraz will be playing for another Grand Slam. There are several names in this quarter who could test him along the way. However, he’s been dealt quite a draw. Hubert Hurkacz and Alex De Minaur are the next two seeds, both of whom are on the return from injury. Hurkacz did play the two Masters 1000 lead-ins but never looked sharp along the way. De Minaur hasn’t played a singles event since Wimbledon and looked a bit rough in doubles at the Olympics.
It would not be surprising if both missed out on the second week. Sebastian Korda won the Citi Open before making the Canada semifinals, so he appears to be in strong form. He would potentially be Alcaraz’s fourth-round opponent. While he’s beaten Alcaraz before, he’s yet to do so in a best-of-five. The name I have my eye on is Matteo Arnaldi, who is in the same section as Hurkacz and De Minaur. If that duo does bow out as expected due to fitness concerns, Arnaldi’s draw suddenly appears wide open for a run to the quarterfinals. While I wouldn’t expect him to beat Alcaraz, you could do a lot worse at +5000 (FanDuel) for a potential quarterfinalist.
Top Four Seeds: Alexander Zverev, Casper Ruud, Taylor Fritz, Holger Rune
Best Unseeded Player: Matteo Berrettini
Best Hard Elo Rating: Alexander Zverev
Best Raw Hard Rating: Alexander Zverev
Best UTR: Alexander Zverev
Sleeper (with quarter price): Casper Ruud (+1300, DraftKings)
This has potential to be the most open quarter in the men’s draw, but with the level Alexander Zverev has shown for the greater part of 2024, it would be a bit surprising to see anyone other than the German make his way through this quarter. That said, with Ruud, Fritz, Rune, Musetti, Berrettini and even Humbert lurking, it won’t be easy sailing for Zverev. Now, he did get a slight boost to his opening round match, with Ruusuvuori withdrawing. I actually think Holger Rune is at significant risk in the opening round, as Brandon Nakashima has shown excellent form throughout the US Open Series. Rune, as we know, hasn’t been quite as good in 2024, and throughout his career has never been as sharp in best-of-five formats.
Taylor Fritz is primed for a second-round date with Matteo Berrettini, assuming the Italian gets past Albert Ramos in his opening-round matchup. That certainly won’t be an easy task for the American, and I’d make the winner of that matchup the favorite to make their way out of Section 5, with Casper Ruud being the favorite out of the other mini section. Keep an eye on the young Frenchman Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, who made a name for himself on grass earlier this season. The serve bot can beat anyone behind that weapon, and with the typical New York conditions, it might play well to his serve this fortnight. That said, this quarter still runs through Zverev, and I’d prefer to take this round-to-round, rather than get involved in the quarter market.
Top Four Seeds: Novak Djokovic, Andrey Rublev, Grigor Dimitrov, Ben Shelton
Best Unseeded Player: Jan Lennard Struff
Best Hard Elo Rating: Novak Djokovic
Best Raw Hard Rating: Novak Djokovic
Best UTR: Novak Djokovic
Sleeper (with quarter price): Grigor Dimitrov (+1500, FanDuel)
Lastly, I’ll keep this one short and sweet. Even if there’s an injury, Novak Djokovic will get through this quarter unless something unforeseen occurs. After months of poor level from Djokovic, he has looked as good as ever since his meniscus surgery, which makes one wonder how long the meniscus was an issue this season. While Rublev, Dimitrov, Shelton and perhaps even Tiafoe can pose as threats, I just don’t see anyone having the goods against Djokovic in best-of-five sets.
Dimitrov measures out as having the best value of anyone (+1600, FanDuel) to win the quarter, but he is 1-12 all time against Djokovic and has also seen a dip in level since Wimbledon, where he was forced to retire with a back issue. Rublev has never made it past the quarterfinals of a Slam, which is the round he’d be lined up to face Djokovic, while Shelton is defending semifinalist points, with higher expectations than he’s ever experienced at an event in his career. For me, there just doesn’t appear to be a threat to Djokovic, at least preflop. Things could always change as we progress through the tournament.
Total Units In Play: 2.95u
Max Winnings: 9.5u
Top Four Seeds: Iga Swiatek, Jessica Pegula, Danielle Collins, Ludmilla Samsonova
Best Unseeded Player: Emma Raducanu
Best Hard Elo Rating: Iga Swiatek
Best Raw Hard Rating: Iga Swiatek
Best UTR: Iga Swiatek
Sleeper (with quarter price): Diana Shnaider (+1400, FanDuel)
The women’s draw of course begins with the World No. 1, Iga Swiatek. As always with Swiatek, we look for one thing – ball bashers. If you’re going to beat Swiatek, you need to hit the ball hard, heavy and flat. Well, she may have avoided Rybakina, Ostapenko and Osaka, at least in her own quarter (they are all in her half), but she does have the likes of Pegula, Collins and Samsonova as the other top seeds in her quarter. Pegula has looked like one of the best players on Tour throughout this US Open Series, winning in Toronto and backing that title run up with a final in Cincinnati. Collins is returning from injury, so perhaps we shouldn’t expect her to be in form.
However, there’s potential for Collins to play her way into form over the first couple rounds, with Dolehide and either Bucsa or Errani in her path. Samsonova is someone I generally always have my eye on when it comes to Laykold hardcourts. While the Russian hasn’t provided the best results thus far in 2024, she did make the Cincinnati quarterfinals, losing to Sabalenka. She did make the semifinals in Abu Dhabi earlier this season, losing to Rybakina. If we go back over the last couple years, Samsonova has made the Montreal final in 2023, Abu Dhabi final in 2023, while winning in both Cleveland and Washington DC in 2022. I think you could do a lot worse than Samsonova at +15000 (HardRock) to win this tournament. Of course, it’s a lottery ticket, but this is someone who has the qualities to beat Swiatek and has done well on this specific surface.
Diana Shnaider is another name I have my eye on, the other seeded player in Danielle Collins’ mini section. If the American turns out to be far less than 100% as she appeared in Monterrey, the Russian, who has been in excellent form all summer, could be primed for a run. Pegula is obviously the best player not named Swiatek in this quarter, but her prices have dropped to unplayable numbers, and she could be in some trouble in the second round with Emma Raducanu lurking. Let’s also not forget about Mirra Andreeva, who could potentially meet Samsonova in the third round.
Top Four Seeds: Elena Rybakina, Jasmine Paolini, Jelena Ostapenko, Anna Kalinskaya
Best Unseeded Player: Karolina Muchova
Best Hard Elo Rating: Elena Rybakina
Best Raw Hard Rating: Elena Rybakina
Best UTR: Elena Rybakina
Sleeper (with quarter price): Caroline Garcia (+4600, FanDuel)
This has potential to be an interesting quarter. Just days before the main draw kicked off, Elena Rybakina dropped a bombshell that she had split with longtime coach Stefano Vukov. As some of you know, I have developed a close relationship with Vukov over the last few years, and this came as a bit of a shock to me (and apparently Vukov as well). From what I’ve been told, Vukov was not with Rybakina in Cincinnati, and the split came pretty abruptly with word being that Rybakina may not play the US Open. She has not practiced in front of the general public to this point, but I can tell you she has been practicing behind closed doors.
She is working with Lovro Zovko, who was with her in Cincinnati. That is a temporary collaboration, with a long-term coach expected to be hired toward the end of the season. The more concerning part is knowing she may not play the US Open. I don’t know much about why, but that signals a possible lack of fitness. This has never been her best Slam either, which certainly opens the door for others. Jasmine Paolini has been the Cinderella of the 2024 season, making the final at both Roland Garros and Wimbledon. I just don’t think conditions in New York suit her game well. Both those finals runs weren’t overly impressive as well. She will begin her tournament against Bianca Andreescu, with several ball-basher opponents in her path, such as Karolina Pliskova, Linda Noskova, Jelena Ostapenko, Naomi Osaka, Anna Kalinskaya, Beatriz Haddad Maia, Caroline Garcia and Elena Rybakina. Speaking of Ostapenko, the third-best seeded player in this quarter, the Latvian, gets Naomi Osaka in the opening round. Talk about a blockbuster! I see that match being one of those first-round matches where the winner could set herself up for a deep run, given the high level that will be needed from the very beginning. Karolina Muchova lurks in the second round, but I’m willing to take a stab at Ostapenko yet again at +8000 (FanDuel).
At that number, with the upside she can carry, if she gets past Osaka, it likely means we’re going to see Ostapenko in one of those rhythm’s that can prime her for a deep run. Anna Kalinskaya is the other name to keep an eye on. She’s the second-best seed in Rybakina’s section. While Kalinskaya has been dealing with an injury, when she has been healthy she has been among the best players in the world. She beat Swiatek in the Dubai final earlier this season, and when I saw her in Miami (another Laykold hardcourt), she absolutely dismantled Ostapenko. I am not sure there is a player other than Rybakina in her section in which she would be an underdog against. Lastly, I want to mention Caroline Garcia, who is in Rybakina’s mini section. Should Rybakina bow out, Garcia at +4600 (FanDuel) to win the quarter, sitting in a mini section that includes Zarazua, Wozniacki, Hibino, Saisai Zheng, Ponchet and Aiava, is someone we at least to take a flier on. Garcia, like Ostapenko, is someone who can get hot out of nowhere.
Top Four Seeds: Coco Gauff, Barbora Krejcikova, Maria Sakkari, Emma Navarro
Best Unseeded Player: Clara Burel
Best Hard Elo Rating: Coco Gauff
Best Raw Hard Rating: Coco Gauff
Best UTR: Paula Badosa
Sleeper (with quarter price): Maria Sakkari (+2500, FanDuel)
Another quarter with potential for chaos, as Coco Gauff is the top seed. But this is not the same Coco Gauff who won this event one season ago. Gauff caught fire last summer, winning the Citi Open, Cincinnati and the US Open, but in 2024, she has resembled the Gauff from prior to last summer, going just 16-14 versus top-50 opponents (11-14 since the Australian Open semifinals), as well as 4-7 versus top-20 opponents. She’s additionally just 4-12 versus top-50 opponents from a set down this season. After going 0-18 in 2022 and beginning 2023 0-10 in that split, Gauff was 6-6 in that split from last year’s US Open through Indian Wells in 2024.
However, since then, she is just 1-9. With Gauff’s forehand continuing to be a targeting point and her serve showing some regression, it’s hard to back her in any way as she faces the pressure of defending title points. The Wimbledon Champion Barbora Krejcikova is the second-best seed in this quarter, and the Czech has a nice draw. She should be a strong favorite over the first couple rounds, while potentially seeing a revitalized Paula Badosa in the third round. I really like Krejcikova as a parlay piece in the “To Reach Round __” market with Daniil Medvedev, who is carrying some really attractive prices. Maria Sakkari just can’t get out of her own head at Slam level, but boy does she have a nice draw. Sakkari sees Yafan Wang in the opening round, then either Diane Parry or Xiyu Wang in the second round.
Victoria Azarenka is the other seeded player in her mini section, who has dealt with a lack of fitness due to illness. Sakkari could see Badosa or Krejcikova in the fourth round, either of which would be a pick’em for me. At +2500 (FanDuel) to win this quarter, we’re getting an excellent number on someone Tennis Abstract projects with an 8.9% chance of winning this quarter. In Gauff’s section, Emma Navarro is the most attractive option for me, but I don’t love her outright numbers. My main interest comes from Section 5 where Sakkari (+11000, FanDuel) and Badosa (+3500, DraftKings) carry healthy price tags.
Top Four Seeds: Aryna Sabalenka, Qinwen Zheng, Daria Kasatkina, Madison Keys
Best Unseeded Player: Katerina Siniakova
Best Hard Elo Rating: Aryna Sabalenka
Best Raw Hard Rating: Aryna Sabalenka
Best UTR: Aryna Sabalenka
Sleeper (with quarter price): Donna Vekic (+2400, FanDuel)
Lastly, much like the Novak Djokovic quarter on the men’s side, I expect Aryna Sabalenka to get through this quarter relatively easily. Looking at the other seeds in this quarter, it’s hard to view anyone posing as a serious threat. Daria Kasatkina doesn’t have the firepower. Madison Keys if she were peaking, would be a threat, but her injury at Wimbledon has really flatlined her season. After retiring in her first match following the Wimbledon injury, it’s hard to expect anything out of the American. Donna Vekic could be an interesting case, given the form she has shown this summer. The first-round loss in Cincinnati to Ashlyn Krueger leaves little to desire, though, given where her prices currently stand.
An interesting name is Ekaterina Alexandrova, but she is incredibly streaky, and I find it hard to believe she can maintain a high enough level to take out Sabalenka. Perhaps the best unseeded player in this quarter is Amanda Anisimova, who actually beat Sabalenka in Toronto earlier this month. The issue with Anisimova is she has drawn Qinwen Zheng in the opening round. It would not be surprising to see the winner of that first-round clash represent Section 7 in the quarterfinal. But at their current market values, I cannot back either knowing Sabalenka is in their immediate path, while potentially needing to beat Coco Gauff, Paula Badosa, or Barbora Krejcikova, and then one of Swiatek, Rybakina, Pegula, etc. I do find value in Zheng to beat Anisimova (-138, Bet365) in that opening round, and if Zheng maintains the solid form she provided in Paris en route to her gold medal, she will at least be a live underdog against Sabalenka.
Total Units In Play: 2.3u
Max Winnings: 41.7u