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New York Liberty +3

I’ve said it for two years now: The New York Liberty are simply a better basketball team than the Las Vegas Aces. While the Aces may have beaten the Liberty in the WNBA Finals last season, I never backtracked from that take. Once the Aces lost Candace Parker last season, the Liberty were the better team in this matchup. The Aces added Tiffany Hayes, but they never solved the size issue that prevailed once Parker was sidelined. Now, Kiah Stokes is out for the Aces, and while Stokes doesn’t play many minutes, she has the size that can be quite helpful and necessary against a Liberty team that plays Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones together.

All season long this Aces team has never looked right, while the Liberty group has developed more and more chemistry as a unit, playing to their ceiling. These two teams have now played five times this season, three of which were regular season matchups. The Liberty have won all five. It is worth noting Chelsea Gray missed one of those games for Vegas, as did A’ja Wilson, while Betnijah Laney missed one game for New York, as did Courtney Vandersloot in another.

New York is +49 on the glass in those five meetings (+20 on the offensive glass). Vegas has been the more efficient perimeter team in three of those five games, while the turnover margin has been pretty neutral, and yet they have not found a way to win a ballgame. Even with this series heading to Vegas, I see the Liberty have a major advantage. They’re the better perimeter team (which is why it’s surprising to see Vegas has had the advantage in three of five). They’re the better defensive team. They’re the better rebounding team. They have more size. With New York getting three points, oddsmakers are telling us this matchup is around a pick’em on a neutral floor. That is simply not true, so I will take the Liberty getting three points in Vegas and I do think they close out the series in a sweep as well.