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Whitestone’s Waiver Watch: NFBC Main Event (4/15)

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Pitch Not Perfect

MLB Counter: 9.7% of the season complete

We’ve all been lamenting the starting pitcher landscape — and nowhere is this truer than in the NFBC Main Event. It’s a set of 15-team leagues organized into an overall contest, and historically, pitching goes earlier than in the traditional 12-team format. 

Spencer Strider — the No. 1 starting pitcher drafted — is out for the season, and this seemed to set off the initial warning bells among the fantasy community. Then as other top starting pitchers developed injuries, it seemed that no one was immune. As we watch the Strider fantasy managers in each league dropping their No. 1 pick, we can see the sadness in their eyes…

Toy Story Goodbye GIF

So I decided to see for myself how difficult the starting pitcher situation is in 2024. Are the injuries taking a huge bite out of fantasy rosters, or is it not quite that bad?

Angry Summer GIF by Shark Week

I researched the top 32 starting pitchers as drafted in the Main Event (drafts take place in the two weeks leading up to the start of the season, so Gerrit Cole does not appear) — in the hopes of capturing almost all of the SP1 and SP2 selections of Main Event fantasy managers. If there were real injury problems, it seemed to me it would be most important if they occurred in this cohort. I developed an extremely sophisticated key to highlight each of the current results as you can see below…

Key:

  • 0: Injured and out for the season
  • 1: Injured but expected back
  • 2: Pitching yes — but poorly
  • 3: Mediocre results to date — not bad
  • 4: Pitching well — looking solid
  • 5: Pitching extremely well

Through April 13:

Drafted as SP# Starting Pitcher Main Event ADP Rating Early Returns on Investment
1 Spencer Strider 2 0 An MRI revealed damage to the UCL — out for the season
2 Corbin Burnes 12 5 Burnes has a great 1.93 ERA; 0.75 WHIP and 20:2 K:BB through his first three starts
3 Zack Wheeler 17 4 Wheeler is 0-2 but has a terrific 1.89 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 20:2 K:BB
4 Luis Castillo 17 2 Castillo’s velocity is down and although his strikeout rate is still good (10.3 K/9) he has a 6.89 ERA & a 1.85 WHIP
5 George Kirby 24 2 Kirby is throwing strikes but so far he hasn’t generating swings and misses (just four Tuesday) — he now has a 6.91 ERA and 13:2 K:BB
6 Pablo López 25 4 Lopez now holds a 4.86 ERA and 1.20 WHIP through his first three starts after a mediocre outing (5 IP/4 ER) on Friday — his K:BB is a solid 16:4
7 Tyler Glasnow 26 5 Glasnow tied his career-high with 14 strikeouts, and owns a 2.25 ERA and 0.75 WHIP with 29 Ks over 24 innings
8 Tarik Skubal 33 5 Skubal posted 5 scoreless innings Friday & now owns an impressive 2.08 ERA and 0.75 WHIP through 17.1 frames with a 20:4 K:BB.
9 Kevin Gausman 34 2 While Gausman’s average fastball velocity was up to 93.9 mph Friday, he’s nevertheless allowed 11 earned runs in his last two starts — so he holds a poor 11.57 ERA & 1.93 WHIP
10 Freddy Peralta 40 5 Peralta lowered his ERA Friday to 2.55 with a 0.68 WHIP & is tied for second in the majors with 26 strikeouts in the early going while issuing just a pair of walks.
11 Zac Gallen 42 5 Gallen has a fine overall record with 2 wins; a 2.25 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP
12 Yoshinobu Yamamoto 44 4 Yamamoto has been relatively good thus far — with a 4.50 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 21:4 K:BB over 16 innings.
13 Logan Webb 45 4 Webb has been fine if not spectacular — his last start leaves him with a 3.80 ERA; a 1.39 WHIP & a 17:7 K:BB in 23.2 IP
14 Framber Valdez 49 1 Placed on the 15-day IL with left elbow inflammation
15 Aaron Nola 50 3 Despite a fastball that has struggled to get over 90 MPH, Nola has 2 Wins, a passable 4.50 ERA & a 1.50 WHIP
16 Max Fried 53 2 Fried rebounded nicely Friday, getting through 6.1 IP with just 1 ER — but his ERA is still 8.74 with a 1.85 WHIP
17 Logan Gilbert 54 4 Gilbert is still without a decision but has been excellent — posting a 2.66 ERA over 20.1 IP in his first three starts.
18 Bobby Miller 55 1 The Dodgers placed Millor on the ILSaturday, but stated that his injury is “not severe” and surgery is not expected, & an MRI showed no structural damage.
19 Grayson Rodriguez 55 4 Through three starts, Rodriguez has recorded a 2.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 21:5 K:BB across 18 IP
20 Zach Eflin 65 3 Eflin has a 6.35 ERA & a 1.29 WHIP through 17 IP, and he’s given up 4 HR despite a strong 15:2 K:BB
21 Blake Snell 66 3 Snell had a mediocre Giant debut with 3 ER over 3 IP, but the control issues resurfaced as he threw just 39 of 72 pitches for strikes
22 Joe Ryan 67 5 Ryan doesn’t have a win but has less than 4 runs in each of his first three outings — he has an outstanding 2.60 ERA; a 0.92 WHIP; and a gaudy 24:2 K:BB
23 Cole Ragans 71 4 Ragans had some difficulty in his last outing but still has a fine 2.60 ERA; 1.27 WHIP; & 21:6 K:BB
24 Jesús Luzardo 76 2 Luzardo has had a rocky start to 2024, with a 7.20 ERA, 1.53 WHIP & a mediocre 17:9 K:BB
25 Dylan Cease 79 4 Cease has now registered a 14:4 K:BB through two starts and has 1 Win, a 2.64 ERA and an 0.84 WHIP
26 Chris Sale 61 4 Sale has been solid in 2024 — he has just one win, and a 4.58 ERA, but his 1.13 WHIP shows he’s been pitching well and he has a solid 20:5 K:BB ratio
27 Justin Steele 90 1 Steele has a Grade 1 hamstring strain and is expected back sometime in May
28 Shane Bieber 94 0 Tommy John — out for the year
29 Joe Musgrove 94 2 Musgrove’s ERA sits at 6.87 (1.75 WHIP) through 4 starts & he has a pedestrian 17:7 K:BB
30 Bailey Ober 95 2 Ober handled a tough LAD lineup allowing just 1 ER in 5.0 IP — but because of his extremely poor first start he only has a 12.79 ERA and a 2.37 WHIP
31 Tanner Bibee 99 2 Bibee holds an underwhelming 5.93 ERA, 1.83 WHIP and 15/8 K/BB ratio across 13 2/3 innings (three starts)
32 Hunter Brown 118 2 Brown has REALLY struggled, and after getting obliterated vs. KC, across his first two starts he now has a horrendous 16.43 ERA and a 3.91 WHIP

In conclusion, we have rather poor results from our top 32 starting pitchers in 2024 in combination with a few key injuries — thereby causing damage to fantasy rotations. The sad totals are below — but if you have two pitchers from categories 3, 4 and 5 (representing 56% of the top starting pitchers), you should be in good shape right now — which two did you end up with?:

Most Common FAAB Pickups in the Main Event: Yariel — Wasn’t He in the Little Mermaid?

In FAAB 4 (our weekly look at how these top owners are spending their fictional $1000 free agent acquisition budget in the Main Event), I consider the warm-up to the major part of the FAAB season. This one (held Sunday) is still at the beginning of a long season, but the bidding started to get a little more aggressive. The top-10 widest acquisitions this week are in the chart below, and Toronto’s Yariel Rodríguez was added in the most leagues (54 of 57) because he is now in the rotation and struck out 6 batters in just 3.2 IP in his first start — encouraging stuff. The No. 2 most-added player was Boston’s speedy David Hamilton, as he’s already homered and stolen a base and seems to be a preferred middle infield option for the Red Sox. Six other players were added in 40 or more leagues: Milwaukee’s Blake Perkins (batting .318 with a HR and two steals), St. Louis’ José Soriano (throws 100 MPH!), Texas’ Kirby Yates (might be the new closer?), Pittsburgh’s Edward Olivares (3 HR in the early going) and the Mets’ José Buttó (dominated Kansas City Sunday).

Added in Most Main Event Leagues Leagues Added Reason Highest Winning Bid Lowest Winning Bid
Yariel Rodríguez 54 Looked good in first start 163 23
David Hamilton 51 Speedy SS in BOS 118 1
Blake Perkins 49 On fire in MIL 72 4
José Soriano 49 Gets at TB & at CIN 66 3
Kirby Yates 46 Could be the TEX closer 211 36
Edward Olivares 46 No more buses to Omaha 72 2
José Buttó 43 Tough task at LAD 215 9
Joe Ross 37 vs. SD & at STL 60 1
Wade Miley 37 vs. SD but two next week 37 1
Jesse Winker 34 Hitting well for WAS 88 1

Winning Bids Over $100 and $200

Bidding Stock Market GIF by Pudgy Penguins

I’m also keeping tabs on the players attracting the highest individual FAAB bids as well. In the fourth run Sunday (see below), there were 13 $200-plus successful bids, for the following players (Brandon Nimmo — 1; Luis Robert — 2; Colton Cowser — 4; Brett Baty — 1; Kenta Maeda — 1; Junior Caminero — 1; José Buttó — 2; Kirby Yates — 1). In addition, there were 80 bids of $100-199 across 20 players as managers were searching for options for the upcoming week.

Weekly Summary (FAAB Date) Winning Bids Over $200 Winning Bids $100 to $199
3/24 1 9
3/31 58 43
4/7 1 23
4/14 13 80

The Wow Bid of the Week: One Manager Found Him!

SNL gif. Chris Farley in the Schmitts Gay Beer sketch lifts the sunglass portion of his double lenses in stunned surprise.

So, this is the section when I reveal which player was the target of the high bid this past Sunday, but I’ve already given it away. Brandon Nimmo’s services were won with a very strong $578 bid (the highest bid so far in 2024), which overcame a well-meaning but unsuccessful runner-up bid of $331. Nimmo hit a lusty .364 with 2 HR this week and this was the only Main Event league in which he was available. Once this manager found him on the wire, he just wasn’t going to be denied — just like the movie (kind of).

Disney Pixar Ocean GIF by Disney

FAAB Summary: The Spending Begins

So It Begins Helms Deep GIF

In the first four FAAB weeks, Main Event managers have had 1,825 winning bids and spent about $162 of their $1,000 allocation. This is still lower than the last three years at the four-week mark, but for the first time this season we’ve breached the $60 per week (per team) threshold. I expect spending to ratchet up over the next four weeks if we get some attractive free agents in the pool:

  • 2024: $162.16
  • 2023: $228.53
  • 2022: $190.39
  • 2021: $250.54

The average Main Event Week 4 winning bid was $28.99 this week, below previous years (all in the $30-39 range).

Main Event: 2024 FAAB Period Total Number of Main Event Winning Bids Total FAAB Dollars Spent Main Event Average Winning Bid Main Event Average Amount Spent Per Team Cumulative FAAB Spent Per Team
1 310 $4,929 $15.90 $5.76  
2 1460 $46,330 $31.73 $54.19 $59.95
3 1728 $34,480 $19.95 $40.33 $100.28
4 1825 $52,908 $28.99 $61.88 $162.16
Total 5323 $138,647 $26.05 $162.16  

The Colosseum

Pvp Elden Ring GIF by Xbox
Four Widest ME Pickups from 3 weeks ago Leagues Added First three weeks stats
Spencer Turnbull 11 15.0 IP (16/5 K:BB) 1 W 0 SV 1.80 ERA 0.93 WHIP
Ronel Blanco 9 21.0 IP (16/9 K:BB) 2 W 0 SV 0.86 ERA 0.71 WHIP
Yimi García 8 6.2 IP (11/1 K:BB) 1 W 1 SV 1.35 ERA 0.45 WHIP
Daniel Hudson 8 8.0 IP (11/0 K:BB) 1 W 1 SV 2.25 ERA 0.62 WHIP

Each week during the season, I’ll take a look at the four widest Main Event pickups from three weeks ago and evaluate whether it was a good addition based on the early stats (thumbs up); a bad idea (thumbs down); or simply a push. Three weeks ago we had our first FAAB run — and although it was somewhat muted in terms of the total amount bid, we still can evaluate these pickups to see if they are providing value. 

Well — as you can see from the above stats — the top four pickups were all excellent value. Spencer Turnbull is in the Philadelphia rotation and put up fine numbers; Mr. No Hitter — Ronel Blanco — has been outstanding (2 wins and a 0.86 ERA!); Yimi García didn’t take over as closer but nevertheless garnered a win and a save; and Daniel Hudson got credit for a great first week after some teams were drafted with a win and a save of his own. Four thumbs up for this crew! Maybe this fantasy stuff is easy after all?

This gives the Main Event managers a strong leg up on surpassing the final 2023 total — which was 39 thumbs up for the season (44%), 36 down (41%) and 13 pushes (15%). The good pickups were the highest since I’ve been tracking it last year — compared to the 2022 good pickups mark of 39% and 24% in 2021.

Overall Leaderboard: Sousaphone — Tough to Beat

Party Vintage GIF by Beeld en Geluid

Nelson Sousa says he invented the sousaphone — and he likes the name of the instrument a great deal. And he wants you to know that it is a tough instrument to play, just like he is a tough man to beat. This week, not only is he leading the Main Event, but Nelson is seventh overall. And in his spare time (see above), Nelson actually plays the sousaphone! What doesn’t Nelson do? However, famed NFBC veteran Jon Stadtmueller is lurking in second place just 26 points back though and doesn’t look worried in the least about Nelson’s early domination. Erik Sviggum checks into third (he was 25th last week), and Big Deal Greg DIehl moves from off the board to fourth place overall with an excellent week. Chris Uram is in fifth — last week he was second — but he remains well within striking distance.

Among the other top-30 contenders, Robert DiPietro, the Pull Hitter himself, is both sixth and 30th overall; Leonard Ringle is eighth; Former Overall Champ Robert Cramutola is solidly in ninth; and Dohn Terrell rounds out the top 10 overall. 

A few other notables in the top 31 (the top 31 gets paid an overall prize at the end of the season — see below) include Glenn Schroter (11th); David Miller (14th); Dave Rhydderch (16th and 29th); Lawrence Schechter (22nd); Clark Olson — perennially at the top (24th); Abdulaziz Madani (26th); Jenny Butler (28th) and John Fish (31st). 

But all 31 of these fantasy managers have gotten off to a terrific start, and that’s what you need in a big 855-team contest like the Main Event. But as the people down in 800th place or worse will tell you — it’s a long season (they hope).

Overall Rank Overall Prize Money Fantasy Manager Overall Points Points Behind First Place
1 $200,000 Nelson Sousa 7657.0 0
2 $50,000 Jon Stadtmueller 7631.0 26.0
3 $30,000 Erik Sviggum 7554.0 103.0
4 $25,000 Greg Diehl 7488.0 169.0
5 $20,000 Chris Uram 7408.0 249.0
6 $15,000 Robert DiPietro 7363.0 294.0
7 $12,500 Nelson Sousa 7221.5 435.5
8 $10,000 Leonard Ringle 7167.5 489.5
9 $9,000 Robert Cramutola 7160.5 496.5
10 $8,000 Dohn Terrell 7068.0 589.0
11 $7,500 Glenn Schroter 7049.5 607.5
12 $7,000 Chris Boudreaux 6956.0 701.0
13 $6,500 Neil Petersen 6911.0 746.0
14 $6,000 David Miller 6886.0 771.0
15 $5,500 Gregg Martin 6861.0 796.0
16 $5,000 Dave Rhydderch 6855.5 801.5
17 $4,000 Eric Karlovic 6853.0 804.0
18 $3,500 Stephen Prepas 6829.0 828.0
19 $3,000 Chris Slack 6753.5 903.5
20 $2,500 David Hinkel 6745.0 912.0
21 $2,400 Bill Gaffney 6714.5 942.5
22 $2,300 Lawrence Schechter 6692.0 965.0
23 $2,200 James Shriver 6667.5 989.5
24 $2,100 Clark Olson 6657.0 1000.0
25 $2,000 David Clum 6649.0 1008.0
26 $1,950 Abdulaziz Madani 6620.5 1036.5
27 $1,900 David Einhorn 6573.0 1084.0
28 $1,850 Jenny Butler 6556.5 1100.5
29 $1,800 Dave Rhydderch 6498.5 1158.5
30 $1,750 Robert DiPietro 6476.5 1180.5
31 $1,700 John Fish 6469.0 1162.0
  Average Top 31 Overall Score Average Top 31 Overall Score 6935.2  

League of Legends

Legends Never Die GIF by HOMAGE

Here are the 31 Main Event leagues with the current top three in the standings as of Monday morning.

NFBC League No. Leader $7,000 prize Second Place $3,500 prize Third Place $1,750 prize
1190 Gregg Martin Nelson Sousa Dan Iverson
1194 Nicholi Knutson Greg Miller Griffin Benger
1232 David Miller Daniel Baker Rian Lange
1233 Andrew Kopicz Andrew Sullivan Michael O’Brien
1337 Steven Heffernan Daniel DaSilva Kyle Brinkmann
1380 Michelle Smith Philippe Dussault Scott Waggener
1381 Steven Weimer David Clum Jackson Price
1418 Neil Petersen Abdulaziz Madani Dominic Cirgliano
1419 Bill Gaffney Jeffrey Biddle Brody John
1427 Robert Cramutola Robert DiPietro Lopi Asch
1438 Dave Rydderch Abdulaziz Madani Andrew Liesch
1443 Clark Olson Jason Santeiu Ryan Venancio
1460 Erik Sviggum David Hinkel Zach Bettencourt
1479 Dave Rydderch Robert Beckman Matt Modica
1484 Joe Bavaro Adam Warner Zach Bettencourt
1485 Bill Gaffney Jacob Sebastiao Abdulaziz Madani
1487 Ryan Holewinski Mike Ballschmiede Brennan Logue
1488 Douglas Roth Brian Edwards Alex Gosline
1489 Mike Massotto Richard DiMondo Andrew McQuiston
1493 Paul Jager Ian Hubbard Robert Cramutola
1516 Mark Bendar Matthew Davis Russel Wyatt
1517 Steven Puntenney Derrek Smith Jon Stadtmueller
1518 Michael O’Brien Joe Meyer Doug Moe
1519 Robert Cramutola Scott Waggener Paul Jager
1520 Steven Weimer Bill Gaffney Mike Duggan
1521 Dave Shovein Carter Gill Robert Giese
1522 Chris Liss Jeff Erickson Glenn Schroter
1523 John Fish James Tomony Michael Lins
1528 David Einhorn Jonathan Vriesema Shelly Verougstraete
1539 Bradley Libros Brian Teras Ray Murphy
1566 Greg Diehl Jeff Mitseff Nathaniel Van Heest
1585 Leonard Ringle Rey Diaz Dave Sowa
1586 Chris Slack Mike Massotto Tom O’Bryan
1587 James Maples Samuel Horton John Thompson
1598 Robert DiPietro Michael O’Brien Eric Drescher
1605 Nelson Sousa Peter Marrero Mike Ballschmiede
1615 Eric Karlovic Doug Cassidy Matthew Anderson
1634 Michael Lins Johnhenry Schroeder Bradley Libros
1645 Stephen Ciepiela Greg Miller Bradley Beckman
1646 Ned Donohue David DiDonato Chris Carmody
1647 Jon Stadtmueller Matthew McDonough Matt Leahy
1648 Dustin Wagner Jeffrey Biddle Jeff Mitseff
1649 Chris Fessler Robbie Brown Jason Anthony
1650 David Miller Douglas Gruber Scott Waggener
1653 Steve Brunn Scott Waggener Greg Lathrop
1658 Chris Uram James Shriver Chris Slack
1676 Chet Lexvold Jason Santeiu Samuel Horton
1680 Nelson Sousa Jenny Butler Lawrence Schechter
1685 Dohn Terrell Abdulaziz Madani Shawn Gidley
1692 Glenn Schroter Robert Brendler Krin Kay
1707 Zachary Viglianco Hiep Hoang Pat Tremaglio
1714 Chris Boudreaux Aaron Lawson Mike Ballschmiede
1778 Andy Saxton Rick Thomas Jody Ryan
1817 Gregg Martin Zach Bettencourt Glenn Schroter
1820 Rick Thomas James Hyler Jeff Mitseff
1831 Jason Santeiu Raj Mehta Ari Benjamin
1837 Stephen Prepas Robert Cramutola Michael O’Brien

Shout-Outs

Shout Out Love GIF by The3Flamingos

The 26 players listed below account for 25 of the 57 first place positions (44%) and 66 of the 171 total cashing positions (39%) — great job thus far!
So far, the most outstanding performance across the Main Events is Robert Cramutola, who has two first places, a second place and a third place. Congratulations Robert! But see below as Michael O’Brien, Abdulaziz Madani and Scott Waggener are also doing terrific work.

Notables include:

  • Two firsts, one second, one third — Robert Cramutola
  • One first, one second, two thirds — Michael O’Brien
  • Three seconds, one third — Abdulaziz Madani
  • Two seconds, two thirds — Scott Waggener
  • Two firsts, one second — Nelson Sousa, Bill Gaffney
  • One first, two seconds — Jason Santeiu
  • One first, two thirds — Glenn Schroter
  • One second, two thirds — Zach Bettencourt, Mike Ballschmiede
  • Two firsts — Gregg Martin, Steven Weimer; David Miller, Dave Rhydderch
  • One first, one second – Robert DiPietro, Mike Massotto, Rich Thomas
  • One first, One third – Paul Jager, Chris Slack, Michael Lins, Jon Stadtmueller, Bradley Libros
  • Two seconds — Greg Miller, Jeffrey Biddle
  • One second, one third — Samuel Horton
  • Two thirds – Jeff Mitseff

Good luck in Week 5!

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