NBA DFS Preview – First Look (2/24)

After an All-Star break that felt like forever, the NBA is back. Thursday presents a nice seven-game DFS slate that has already had some news break, while a handful of injured players are returning to the lineup after some time off. Let’s take an early look at the slate.

Be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer. 

NBA Vegas Data for February 24 | NBA DFS First Look

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons

CLE -7, total: 208.5
Pace: CLE (26th), DET (12th)

Situations to monitor:

• Darius Garland continues to deal with a sore back and has been ruled out. Meanwhile, Caris LeVert stepped on a teammate’s foot in practice and will be out for this game and listed as day-to-day. Lauri Markkanen, however, is listed as probable after missing the last 11 games.

Boston Celtics @ Brooklyn Nets

BOS -7.5, total: 214
Pace: BOS (24th), BKN (10th)

Situations to monitor:

• Kyrie Irving will be unavailable for Brooklyn but will soon be able to play home games again. Meanwhile, Ben Simmons will not make his Brooklyn debut yet.
• For Boston, both Marcus Smart and Robert Williams are off the injury report and will play.

Atlanta Hawks @ Chicago Bulls

CHI -4, total: 235.5
Pace: ATL (20th), CHI (15th)

Situations to monitor:

• Lonzo Ball, Alex Caruso and Patrick Williams will remain sidelined for the Bulls. Zach LaVine is off the injury report.
• John Collins (foot) is listed as doubtful for Atlanta. Danilo Gallinari will likely start at power forward again.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Minnesota Timberwolves

MEM -3, total: 239
Pace: MEM (4th), MIN (3rd)

Situations to monitor:

• Dillon Brooks, who hasn’t played since Jan. 8, could return to the lineup in early March. 

Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder

PHX -10, total: 215
Pace: PHX (8th), OKC (16th)

Situations to monitor:

• Chris Paul will likely miss the remainder of the regular season with a thumb injury. Meanwhile, Cameron Payne will remain sidelined (wrist).
• For Oklahoma City, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will return to the lineup following the All-Star break. However, Luguentz Dort, Ty Jerome, Kenrich Williams and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl are all out.

Denver Nuggets @ Sacramento Kings

DEN -4.5, total: 231.5
Pace: DEN (21st), SAC (7th)

Situations to monitor:

• None.

Golden State Warriors @ Portland Trail Blazers

GSW -9.5, total: 223
Pace: GSW (13th), POR (17th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jusuf Nurkic will miss the next four weeks with plantar fasciitis.
• Draymond Green will remain sidelined for Golden State, while Gary Payton will remain in the starting lineup.

Matchups to Target | NBA DFS First Look

Devin Booker vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

While Oklahoma City’s defense has been better than you might think this season, this matchup is still favorable for Booker, especially with the Thunder missing their top defender in Luguentz Dort. Oklahoma City is coughing up the fourth-most points per game (5.1), eighth-most points per possession (1.01) and sixth-highest field goal percentage (42.0%) to opposing players off screens this season. Booker, meanwhile, is averaging 2.3 points per game off screens, good for the ninth-most in the NBA. And, of course, Booker’s usage and opportunities should be much higher with the absence of Chris Paul, who is sporting a league-high 55.9% frequency rate as the ball handler out of the pick-and-roll. For the season, Booker is sporting a 33.7% usage rate with Paul off the floor, while his assist rate climbs from 12% with Paul on the court to 16% when he’s off the court. Booker is also only averaging around 55 touches per game for the season, a number that is sure to skyrocket over the next few weeks.

Deandre Ayton vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Staying with the Suns here, Ayton will certainly be impacted by the absence of Chris Paul. He runs the pick and roll so much alongside Paul, who is obviously one of the best point guards in the history of basketball. However, he is still averaging a strong 1.35 fantasy points per minute with Paul off the floor this season and this matchup, along with Ayton’s price tag, is too favorable. The Thunder have no interior presence on their defense and are allowing a 46% field goal percentage off short mid-range shots, which is essentially from around the free throw line distance and in. That is the highest rate in all of basketball. That bodes well for Ayton, as 44% of his field goal attempts this season have come from that part of the floor, which is the fifth-highest rate in the league. And with the Thunder also coughing up the highest field goal percentage in the league to the post (54.9%), that could help Ayton, as the Suns could use him more in the post game if they don’t run as much pick-and-roll without Paul.

Rajon Rondo vs. Detroit Pistons

With both Darius Garland and Caris LeVert ruled out for Cleveland, it is very possible Rondo gets the start at point guard. Anytime there is a path to Rondo playing 25-30 minutes, he needs to be on your radar. With Garland and Collin Sexton off the court this season, Rondo is sporting a 22% assist rate, while averaging a solid 0.95 fantasy points per minute. Assuming he starts at point guard, Rondo will become one of the best value plays on the slate, especially against a Pistons defense that is coughing up the third-most assists (9.16) per game to opposing point guards this season.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Rajon Rondo vs. DET — As discussed earlier, if Rondo starts for the Cavaliers, it will be difficult to find many value plays in better spots. He is sporting a 22% assist rate with Garland off the court this season and faces a Pistons team allowing the third-most assists per game to opposing point guards.

Aaron Holiday vs. OKC — Not only is Chris Paul out for Phoenix, but the Suns are still without Cameron Payne. Holiday logged 20 minutes after Paul left in the third quarter in the game before the break and with Payne out, he should see plenty of minutes at point guard for the Suns, alongside Elfrid Payton.