If it feels like we just did this with the French Open, it’s because we did. The turnaround between Roland Garros and Wimbledon is extremely quick and a reason why many believe the grass court season should be extended, even by a couple weeks. That said, we have now approached the third of four Grand Slams in 2023.
The key storyline at the 2023 edition of the Wimbledon Championships has Novak Djokovic continuing his path to a Calendar Slam. Additionally, the return of Russian and Belarussian players will have the 2023 draws looking a little more stacked. And believe it or not, as the 2021 Wimbledon event included several pandemic restrictions, these will be the first normal Championships at the All English Club since 2019. So, let’s dive into Monday’s DFS slate.
This article will guide you through each slate, focusing on which players to build your core around. It also includes match predictions for the remainder of the slate. With that, let’s dive into Monday’s slate.
Grigor Dimitrov ($8,500)
With Holger Rune coming off a four-hour, five-set thriller with Davidovich Fokina, as we enter week two of a Slam, I have serious fitness concerns for the Dane. Not to mention, Davidovich Fokina really gave that match away, as Rune was on the ropes several times in that fifth set. Now, Rune gets Grigor Dimitrov who hasn’t looked this good since his 2019 US Open run. Dimitrov is now 7-1 this grass court season, with his only loss coming against Carlos Alcaraz, a match in which was highly competitive in both sets where Dimitrov was actually ahead in the second set. Dimitrov has dropped serve twice through nine sets in three rounds and did not face a break point against Frances Tiafoe. Rune is a better shot maker than Tiafoe, but you’ll be hard pressed to find someone as athletic as Big Foe, and for Dimitrov to have worked the American the way he did in the third round, speaks volumes as to how good his level currently is. Dimitrov is averaging a 14.3% ace rate at these Championships, 3% above his career average on grass. While Rune has shown some improvements on this surface this season, his wins have come against Maxime Cressy, Ryan Peniston, Lorenzo Musetti, George Loffhagen, Roberto Carballes Baena and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. He probably should have lost to Davidovich Fokina, and struggled with the serves of both Cressy and Peniston, which bodes trouble for his return game against Dimitrov with the way the Bulgarian is serving at the moment.
Other match predictions (sets in parentheses)
Medvedev over Lehecka (3): There’s just not a whole lot Lehecka can do to disrupt Medvedev off the ground. For that, I have to give Medvedev the edge, and while he may drop a set, his ceiling is as good as anyone’s on this slate.
Rybakina versus Haddad Maia: This will be the third meeting between these two, with the previous two coming earlier this season, both of which were actually won by Haddad Maia. The first win was in Abu Dhabi, which many believed to be the quickest hardcourt on the planet, directly after Rybakina’s Australian Open run. Haddad Maia saved four of five break point opportunities, converting three of five on Rybakina’s serve, while winning 36.6% of her return points. They then met again in Stuttgart, the indoor clay event, directly after Rybakina’s Sunshine Double run. Haddad Maia won that rather convincingly, though it ended early due to Rybakina retiring from back spasms. In that contest, Haddad Maia saved three of three break points, converting all four she saw off Rybakina’s serve, while winning 54% of her return points. Interestingly, Rybakina is just 3-8 against lefties inside the top 50 of the World Rankings. Now, that’s an interesting stat, as lefties are generally going to play their forehands cross court, which in this case, would be into Rybakina’s backhand. While Rybakina’s backhand isn’t weak, it’s certainly not as strong a weapon as her forehand, and given that she is uncomfortable consistently going down the line off both wings, she then becomes rather predictable, and someone like Haddad Maia who can redirect and use angles, as most lefties typically can do, gains quite a significant edge in rallies. Haddad Maia can absorb power as well, so this is a real test for the defending champion.
Tsitsipas versus Eubanks: Interesting matchup as this is one Tsitsipas should really be winning, however (there’s always a however), Eubanks is in quite some form right now, and given the quality of his serve, and Tsitsipas’ lack of a consistent return game, this is going to be a close match that very likely sees multiple tiebreaks come into play. That said, Tsitsipas’ upside seems a bit limited, and as far as value goes, it’s tough to dislike the floor of Eubanks as a low-cost value, while in a matchup that may see a few 50/50 sets, I have some interest in taking a shot on Eubanks as an upset play.
Keys over Andreeva (3): The story of Mirra Andreeva continues writing new chapters. She handled the power of Ana Potapova well, but that was a very physical match in which Andreeva said post-match she could hardly catch her breath between points. Without a rest day, she’s going to see an opponent with even more power in which is almost certainly going to take quite a bit of defending to absorb power and regain control of the baseline. Can Andreeva maintain her status as a brick wall two days in a row? I think she could very well come out hot in the first set, but this feels like a spot where ultimately Keys’ power is too much and the American hits Andreeva off the court. Let’s keep in mind, Keys has not dropped a set on grass courts this season in now eight matches and she’s only dropped serve twice through three rounds at Wimbledon.
Sabalenka over Alexandrova (2): Sabalenka rebounded nicely from a pretty ugly second round. One thing worth noting however is double faults are creeping back into her game, but she’s managed her way around them over the fortnight thus far. Alexandrova did beat Sabalenka in the Hertogenbosch final last season, but circumstances were quite different last year, as Sabalenka’s serve was still a bit of a mess, and her motivation could be questioned, as she was banned from Wimbledon due to the Russia/Ukraine war. Now, the same could be said about Alexandrova, but all that has transpired in the last year, it’s tough to go against Sabalenka at the moment, as she seems to be improving as the tournament progresses.
Alcaraz versus Berrettini: This is a very interesting matchup and I’ll be the first to admit I have looked for every which way possible to fade Berrettini throughout this tournament, but after his performance against Alexander Zverev, I can confidently say Berrettini looks like a legitimate threat at these Championships. In my honest opinion, Zverev did very little wrong throughout that match, and it was simply a case of Berrettini being far too good. Let’s keep in mind, this is a player who coming into 2023 had compiled a grass court record of 32-3 since 2019, and those three losses came against Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, and David Goffin. Since 2021, that record had been 20-1, with the only loss being to Djokovic in the 2021 Wimbledon final. Alcaraz looked vulnerable at times against Nicolas Jarry, and while Jarry deserves a ton of credit, he’s not quite as polished on grass courts as Berrettini. That to me, feels like a bit of good news for the Italian, who can use his big serve and forehand to make Alcaraz a bit uncomfortable by rushing the Spaniard, who was really hugging the baseline against Jarry. I’m sure, naturally, backing Berrettini for the first time this tournament, he’ll suddenly look as he did in Stuttgart, when he left the court in tears from how badly his body let him down in addition to how poor his level had been. At Wimbledon however, Berrettini has looked as crisp as he has on grass courts over the last few seasons. This is the best opponent Alcaraz has seen on grass this season and perhaps even in his career on this surface.
Kvitova over Jabeur (3): Two excellent grass courters who can hit with tremendous power and have an all court game. Right now however, Kvitova is the one in better form, with more quality wins throughout the grass court season, and while her previous round opponent Natalija Stevanovic isn’t a brand name opponent, the Serbian plays slice off both wings, which should have been a nice tune up for an opponent like Jabeur.
