It takes a special kind of crazy to be good at PGA DFS. It is perhaps the most volatile of all the major sports, there’s little correlation to take advantage of, and we only get six roster spots for each lineup. Consequently, to gain an edge over our competition we have to be bold – not just accepting the variance of the sport, but harnessing it to our advantage (this is what our GPP Scores are meant to do). This means that virtually every lineup we build should contain an element or two that makes us uncomfortable. In a way, comfort is the enemy of profitability in PGA DFS. Instead, we want to leverage those seeking comfort and safety in a sport that offers nothing of the sort.
Enter: Hot takes. Each hot take can be thought of as a potential path to GPP glory.
Course Fit: The 2024 Mexico Open
As we talked about on Pro v Pro, this week is all about a combination of distance and putting. The Bryson DeChambeau special, if you will! One other thing I’m considering this week, which is not included in the course fit expected strokes gained projections, is long iron prowess. Players will be faced with a ton of approach shots from outside of 200 yards this week, so I do think it’s important. The extreme distance signal in the CF Model is almost certainly in part due to a correlation between distance off the tee and long iron prowess (the common denominator being clubhead speed).
Hot Takes for the 2024 Mexico Open
1. Rostership for Finau and Hojgaard could explode
One thing I’ve talked about a bunch when it comes to rostership projections is that we always want to consider the range of potential rostership, not just the point estimate. We also want to consider the contest that we’re playing. The main one for me is typically the $200 Driver (single entry with 277 people) and in this contest, I think we could potentially see both players over 50%.
At these rosterships, it’s hard to justify either one. Even at the projected 41.5% and 38.7% that we have currently for Tony Finau and Nicolai Hojgaard respectively, they have the two lowest GPP Scores. This is a bit difficult to comprehend, given the fact that Hojgaard is first by a fairly wide margin in our expected strokes gained projection thanks to his combination of distance and putting. However, it’s another reminder of why the GPP Scores are so helpful. Also, Hojgaard does have a weakness with long irons, so if you need a reason to fade him beyond pure game theory, that’s it.
Finau is an easier fade, but no less scary. No player in the world has been better with a long iron in his hand than Finau over the last 12 months. In many ways, Finau is this week’s Scottie Scheffler. He projects better than everyone else from tee to green, unquestionably. However, his putting is and has been a major concern. How’s this for a stat — among players $8k and up, in this abnormally weak field, only Cameron Champ’s irons are projected to lose more strokes per round than Finau’s putter.
2. Keith Mitchell is the best play on the slate
Keith Mitchell is basically everything great about Hojgaard without the downsides. He’s long (and accurate) off the tee, he can roll the rock, and he’s better with long irons. And of course, he’s also going to be only a fraction as popular as Hojgaard. Mitchell is:
Second in expected strokes gained
Second in top-10 odds
Second in made cut odds
Third in top-five odds
Third in win odds
Yet, he’s also under $10k and appears to be only moderately rostered. Lock him in.
3. Robert MacIntyre is worth the risk
Robert MacIntyre sure has struggled out of the gates this season, but it’s purely been a putting issue. He’s driving it well and his long irons have been superb. MacIntyre has the third-largest estimated event to event variance in the field, which is due in large part to the fact that his putting can reverse in any given week. Unlike Finau and Scheffler, his putting woes have been severe but inconsistent. Plus, this added volatility is great for someone projected around 5%.
4. Don’t be afraid to take shots this week
Specifically, I’m referring to a stars and scrubs type of lineup. The highest GPP Score of the week belongs to Emiliano Grillo as everyone flocks to the guys up top with more distance off the tee. Grillo has win equity, and there isn’t a huge difference in top-five odds or made cut odds for the best $5k and $6k plays vs. the best $7k plays. It may be worth it!
Remember — our best path to GPP glory includes enough chalk failing to make 6/6 lineups extremely rare. Since the field is likely to load up on $7k and $8k plays, either avoiding this range or focusing only on the contrarian plays within it makes a ton of sense. Some guys I’m sure to have in MME and will consider for SE:
Garrick Higgo Joe Highsmith Matthew NeSmith MJ Daffue Callum Tarren In fact, for SE, I’m likely to either go all in on this thought with Keith Mitchell as my third most expensive player, or go the complete opposite route with Mitchell as my most expensive. I want to avoid the middle ground where most people will build.
