The 2024 NFL Draft made quick work of expectations when Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix heard their names at Picks 8 and 12. My dynasty rookie ranking tiers make sense of all the surprises.
The plus and minus totals in parentheses show how much each prospect jumped or fell from my pre-draft rankings. An asterisk means I did not previously rank a player in my top 53.
You can see all of my and the staff’s rankings here.
Tier 1
1. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals (unchanged) 2. Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants (unchanged)
BATON ROUGE, LA – OCTOBER 14: LSU Tigers wide receiver Malik Nabers (8) scores a touchdown during a game between the LSU Tigers and the Auburn Tigers on October 14, 2023, at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. (Photo by John Korduner/Icon Sportswire)
Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers earned their top six draft selections in different ways. Harrison combined A.J. Green’s size with Tee Higgins’ college touchdown rate. And Nabers set a new standard for catches of 20-plus yards in a college career. But both prospects are poised to lead their receiver-desperate pro teams from the jump in their rookie seasons. And recent top six predecessors Ja’Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle spur confidence that they can make that quick transition with their respective 1,455-yard, 13-touchdown and 104-catch, 1,015-yard freshmen lines from 2021.
Tier 2
3. Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears (unchanged) 4. Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders (unchanged) 5. Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears (unchanged) 6. Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (unchanged)
Rome Odunze made a case for Tier 1 with his standout 4.03- and 6.88-second shuttle and three-cone times, 39-inch vertical jump and top 10 draft selection. But the Bears provide much stiffer target competition in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. Relatively speaking, Caleb Williams is the bigger Bears fantasy winner. But I wouldn’t reach too high for him in your rookie drafts. Williams may be a generational quarterback prospect, but he extended plays with his athleticism to throw more than to scramble at USC. And at a somewhat undersized 6-foot-1 and 214 pounds, Williams may not run as much as his most popular comp Kyler Murray. He may be a better real-life than fantasy quarterback.
INGLEWOOD, CA – JANUARY 09: Georgia Bulldogs tight end Brock Bowers (19) celebrates after catching a pass for a touchdown in the third quarter during the Georgia Bulldogs game versus the TCU Horned Frogs in the College Football Playoff National Championship game on January 9, 2023, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. (Photo by Chris Williams/Icon Sportswire)
Kyle Pitts may have shied you from a top-five tight end pick. But Pitts was a size-speed projection. Brock Bowers nearly lapped him with 2,538 versus 1,492 yards in as many college seasons. And Bowers paced a Georgia team with newly minted NFL receivers in Ladd McConkey, Adonai Mitchell and Jermaine Burton each of the last three years. He should be a rare immediate-impact fantasy tight end.
Brian Thomas Jr. provokes some doubt with a late college breakout and whispers of medical concerns. But like his LSU predecessor and sim score comp Justin Jefferson, Thomas has the size and athleticism to expand on his college role and work outside and in the slot in the NFL. He could be Trevor Lawrence’s top target for a decade, and that keeps him in Tier 2 with a few more heralded prospects.
Tier 3
7. Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo Bills (+3) 8. Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (unchanged) 9. Trey Benson, RB, Arizona Cardinals (-2) 10. Jonathon Brooks, RB, Carolina Panthers (+5) 11. Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots (unchanged) 12. Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders (unchanged)
Keon Coleman’s sim score comp Devin Funchess demonstrated the downside of 4.6-second speed for a wide receiver in his quick turn in the NFL and pivot to international basketball. But there is more to route-running than straight-line speed. Just ask Davante Adams (4.56s) and DeAndre Hopkins (4.57s). If Coleman can use his 6-foot-3 and 213-pound frame and basketball background to win contested catches and rack up yards after the catch, he’ll handle the jump to the NFL just fine. And Coleman and smaller-but-speedier new Chargers receiver Ladd McConkey should see some heavy target volume immediately in their rookie seasons starting next to mostly unproven incumbent receivers in Khalil Shakir, Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer.
You can infer the weakness of the 2024 running back class in top prospects Jonathon Brooks’ and Trey Benson’s falls to the second and third rounds. But you shouldn’t wait too long to take them in your own rookie drafts. The lack of depth in the class makes Brooks and Benson more valuable relative to their alternatives at the position. And Brooks has the quickness and decisiveness and Benson has the speed and power to earn fantasy-relevant rookie roles. I prefer Benson for fantasy because of his bigger frame and likely bigger peak workloads. But Brooks should be the more elusive receiver, and he could keep fantasy pace like a lesser Jahmyr Gibbs to Benson’s lesser Bijan Robinson.
TAMPA, FL – JANUARY 01: LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) reacts from the sideline during the ReliaQuest Bowl against the Wisconsin Badgers on January 1, 2024 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire)
Jayden Daniels was the higher draft pick. And with apparent 4.5-second speed and a 617-3,307-34 college rushing line, Daniels will be the higher consensus rookie pick. But Drake Maye was an efficient college scrambler, too, and he faces a lesser threat to lose it in translation with his bigger 223-pound frame against Daniels’ 210. It’s a difficult choice, but I prefer Maye for his ceiling. He could be the next Josh Allen.
Tier 4
13. Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, New England Patriots (unchanged) 14. Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (+2) 15. Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers (+12) 16. Xavier Legette, WR, Carolina Panthers (+5) 17. Adonai Mitchell, WR, Indianapolis Colts (-8)
Xavier Worthy could not have asked for a better fit for his record-breaking 4.21-second speed than Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. But Worthy’s sim score comps DeSean Jackson, Jalin Hyatt, and former Chiefs receiver Mecole Hardman illustrate the fantasy risk. When they aren’t Tyreek Hill, the fastest receivers are often more dependent on less consistent explosive touchdown catches. Worthy may help his Chiefs team as a space-clearer more than he helps traditional fantasy teams at the start of his career. I prefer Ja’Lynn Polk for fantasy. He trades his lesser speed for strength, sure-handedness and leaping ability, traits that could help him contribute consistently with contested catches and YAC. And on a notoriously receiver-needy Patriots team, Polk should have an easier road to a No. 1 receiver role than his Round 1 foils Worthy and Ricky Pearsall.
Xavier Legette is a bully after the catch, and so he should help Bryce Young release the ball quickly and compete with Diontae Johnson for No. 1 receiver status. But I said the same thing about Jonathan Mingo last year, and Legette effectively matched his Panthers predecessor and earned his top sim score comp with a 6-foot-1 and 221-pound frame, a 4.39-second 40 time, and with 40- and 126-inch vertical and broad jumps at the combine. Legette may prove to be the C.J. Stroud to Mingo’s Justin Fields. But I can’t see Carolina as a plus destination, not after the new Panthers brain trust made old trust decisions to trade up and take a receiver like Legette.
Like GM Chris Ballard, I’m indifferent to Adonai Mitchell’s fall to the back half of the second round for a narrative of character concerns. But I’m not indifferent to Mitchell’s new team fit for fantasy. The Colts just extended their target magnet of a No. 1 receiver in Michael Pittman this offseason. And they now have a pair of young slot options in Josh Downs and rookie Anthony Gould. Mitchell has better traits than all of them, but he could take some time to realize his potential, especially with a standout running quarterback in Anthony Richardson.
Tier 5
18. Jermaine Burton, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (+5) 19. Roman Wilson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) 20. MarShawn Lloyd, RB, Green Bay Packers (unchanged) 21. Jaylen Wright, RB, Miami Dolphins (+4) 22. Blake Corum, RB, Los Angeles Rams (+8)
Jermaine Burton and Roman Wilson may feel like complementary pieces on the Bengals and Steelers, but they are closer to top-line status than they may appear. The former team let Tyler Boyd leave in free agency and seems poised to do the same with Tee Higgins next summer even if they don’t acquiesce to his current trade demand. And the latter team traded Diontae Johnson and are down to just George Pickens and Calvin Austin as team-drafted incumbent receivers despite their reputation as a wide receiver factory. Meanwhile, both receiver prospects have the traits to produce more as pros than they did in college, where Burton butted heads with some coaches and Wilson played second fiddle to Michigan’s run-oriented offense.
KNOXVILLE, TN – NOVEMBER 18: Tennessee Volunteers Running Back Jaylen Wright (0) rushes the ball during the college football game between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Tennessee Volunteers on November 18, 2023, at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, TN. (Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire)
Opinions vary wildly on the next batch of rookie running backs Marshawn Lloyd, Jaylen Wright, and Blake Corum, and I leaned on my pre-draft evaluations more than their inverted draft selections to rank them for rookie drafts. Lloyd has the 5-foot-9 and 220-pound frame to handle a heavy workload if he can ever inherit one from new Packers starter Josh Jacobs, and he was one of just four running back prospects to clear the 110 Speed Score benchmark that has identified many of the league’s current bell-cow backs. Wright had the silver-medal 4.38-second 40 time and was a no-brainer pick for Mike McDaniel’s wide zone Dolphins offense. But Wright is also undersized and may peak at his Tennessee standard of just over 150 touches per season. Corum is undersized, too. And while that did not limit his new teammate Kyren Williams in fantasy in 2023, Corum trailed Williams with 1.2 versus 2.8 catches per game in college. Sean McVay has historically preferred every-down running backs, but I’m not convinced that Corum is one.
Tier 6
23. Malachi Corley, WR, New York Jets (+3) 24. Jalen McMillan, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) 25. Troy Franklin, WR, Denver Broncos (-3) 26. Ray Davis, RB, Buffalo Bills (-7) 27. Isaac Guerendo, RB, San Francisco 49ers (+10) 28. J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings (unchanged)
More than their tier predecessors, Malachi Corley, Jalen McMillan and Troy Franklin face major target competition on the Jets, Bucs, and Broncos. And all three could peak as specialized players. Corley is the YAC king of the class but ran a limited route tree at Western Kentucky. McMillan played the bulk of his college snaps from the slot between Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk in Washington. And Franklin is a similar if slower speed merchant like Xavier Worthy.
Running backs Ray Davis and Isaac Guerendo should start their careers as backups for the Bills and 49ers. But both have ceilings as every-down players. Davis teased that with 33 catches and 21 touchdowns in his one season at Kentucky, and his 211-pound frame should play bigger at his shorter 5-foot-8 height. Guerendo couldn’t match Davis as a perennial college backup. But he lit up the combine with a class-leading 4.33-second 40 time and 41.5- and 129-inch vertical and broad jumps.
J.J. McCarthy may have lost some public luster when he became the fifth quarterback selected after presumed Day 2 pick Michael Penix Jr. But in truth, nothing has changed for McCarthy. He found his predicted Vikings landing spot and is a strong bet to start games in 2024. Scouts believe McCarthy can do more than Jim Harbaugh asked him to do on his run-oriented Michigan team. But that “more” does not include much running, and McCarthy likely has a back-end QB1 ceiling because of it.
Tier 7
29. Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos (+10) 30. Braelon Allen, RB, New York Jets (-6) 31. Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2) 32. Devontez Walker, WR, Baltimore Ravens (+3) 33. Javon Baker, WR, New England Patriots (+9) 34. Luke McCaffrey, WR, Washington Commanders (*) 35. Audric Estime, RB, Denver Broncos (-21) 36. Will Shipley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (+8)
Bo Nix couldn’t match his foil Michael Penix Jr. for draft inflation. But Nix checked a lot of boxes for fantasy sleeper status. He went to a Broncos team with little else at the position. He went high enough to earn several chances to stick as a starter. And he has the size and speed to scramble and take designed runs. Scouts see Nix as a major reach with his spotty footwork and limited processing skills, concerning, especially after his unprecedented 61 college starts. But quarterbacks are notoriously difficult to project, and Nix has the traits to excel in fantasy if he can prove his pre-draft narrative false.
Braelon Allen, Audric Estime, Bucky Irving and Will Shipley entered the draft with obvious limitations, the former two in their speed and acceleration and the latter two in their size. And teams provided a referendum on those concerns when all four fell to the late fourth or early fifth round of the draft. It’s easy to picture Allen scoring red zone touchdowns for the Jets and Irving catching third-down passes for the Bucs. But their draft standing puts even those specialized roles into question. And while I was the most optimistic for Estime before the draft, his landing with the Broncos hurts his fantasy potential the most. He may need to beat out Samaje Perine to make the 53-man roster next to the talented veteran Javonte Williams and overachieving sophomore Jaleel McLaughlin.
Luke McCaffrey has obvious NFL bloodlines. But he is three inches shorter and 28 pounds lighter than his father Ed and less explosive than his brother Christian. His 6-foot-2 and 198-pound frame may play up in the slot, and that role would shield him from the press coverage that scouts noted troubled him after his mid-college position switch from quarterback. But McCaffrey looks like a specialized player. Don’t reach for a name you know. I prefer Devontez Walker and Javon Baker in his range. Both have better size. And Walker looked like a Day 2 draft candidate before he dropped a bunch of passes at the senior bowl.
Tier 8
37. Michael Penix Jr., QB, Atlanta Falcons (+1) 38. Ben Sinnott, TE, Washington Commanders (+12) 39. Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Carolina Panthers (-8) 40. Cade Stover, TE, Houston Texans (unchanged) 41. Theo Johnson, TE, New York Giants (unchanged) 42. Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, New York Giants (+3) 43. Jamari Thrash, WR, Cleveland Browns (-10) 44. Anthony Gould, WR, Indianapolis Colts (*) 45. Malik Washington, WR, Miami Dolphins (-11) 46. Kimani Vidal, RB, Los Angeles Chargers (-10) 47. Rasheen Ali, RB, Baltimore Ravens (*) 48. Jared Wiley, TE, Kansas City Chiefs (*) 49. Tip Reiman, TE, Arizona Cardinals (*) 50. Ainias Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (-7) 51. Johnny Wilson, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (-19) 52. Jacob Cowing, WR, San Francisco 49ers (-6) 53. Bub Means, WR, New Orleans Saints (*)
SAN ANTONIO, TX – DECEMBER 29: Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) throws the ball during the game against the Texas Longhorns during the Valero Alamo Bowl football game at the Alamodome on December 29, 2022 in San Antonio, TX. (Photo by Adam Davis/Icon Sportswire)
I entered the draft with Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix ranked back-to-back. But the former’s surprise jump to the No. 8 pick might have been the worst possible thing for his fantasy future. Penix will now sit behind Kirk Cousins, whose newly signed Falcons contract carries $90 million, $65 million, $25 million and $12.5 million dead cap hits the next four years. Maybe Penix will play in 2026 when he’s 26 years old? But even when he does, Penix is a throwback pocket passer in an era when 300-3 rushing lines lose ground to an average fantasy starter. In a lot of formats, he won’t be worth the wait.
You could use the draft order as your guide for ranking the rookie tight ends behind Brock Bowers. But Ben Sinnott played a bunch of his Kansas State snaps at fullback, and Tip Reiman counterbalances his elite traits with extremely modest production in 41 catches in four seasons at Illinois. I would take my pre-draft favorites Ja’Tavion Sanders, Cade Stover and Theo Johnson ahead of at least the latter option. They have short-term paths to TE1 jobs on the Panthers, Texans and Giants — assuming Darren Waller retires — while Reiman should spend a bunch of his snaps blocking beside his prolific receiving tight end teammate Trey McBride.
A former wide receiver at Iowa — if such a thing exists — Tyrone Tracy Jr. may be the most interesting prospect in his tier. And a look at most depth charts will tell you he is a Devin Singletary injury away from some serious run on the Giants. But as a late running back convert, Tracy has just 146 carries to his college credit. I would consider him a project similar to potential Chiefs tight end of the future Jared Wiley and wide receiver Johnny Wilson, whose 6-foot-6 and 231-pound frame could push him to tight end, as well.
Slot receivers often provide the most statistical bang for a Day 3 draft buck, and Anthony Gould, Malik Washington, Ainias Smith, and Jacob Cowing seem to fit that bill. Jamari Thrash may fit it as well with his 6-foot-0 and 188-pound frame, but you try telling a Steve Smith disciple that he can’t cut it as an outside receiver. I would take all five of those smaller receivers over the classically built Bub Means. The new Saints receiver will need some time to refine his hand placement and press releases, and his short-term contributions as a vertical threat will likely do more for his real team than his fantasy ones.
Kimani Vidal and Rasheen Ali have some major Round 5 and 6 running back competition. But they landed in run-oriented offenses with the Chargers and Ravens. Vidal had a top five Speed Score in his class. And Ali has similar quickness and elusiveness in space as his new teammate Keaton Mitchell and should benefit more than most backs could from on offense with Lamar Jackson at quarterback.
