The 2024 NFL Draft is almost a week away, and we continue to analyze team needs and potential landing spots for players. Gathering information and trying to predict the first round is one of my favorite exercises of the sports year. This season brings even more uncertainty, as there are as many as six quarterbacks that could be drafted in the first round, including at the first overall pick.
April 25, all of the rumors and predictions will become crystal clear as each NFL team will declare their intentions through actions, not words. After analyzing information from beat reporters, coach interviews, and reviewing a myriad of mock drafts, here is my third projection of Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft. As usual, I will not include trades as part of this mock draft.
2024 NFL Mock Draft 3.0 — First Round
1. Chicago Bears — Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Previous Pick: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Easy. It is a fait accompli that Williams joins the Bears as their franchise quarterback.
2. Washington Commanders — Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Previous Pick: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
My strong instinct now is that Washington will take Jayden Daniels. The conviction is starting to build from insiders with supportive comments from Ben Standig’s interviews to Adam Schefter’s latest report, to Peter Schrager’s latest mock Tuesday morning.
3. New England Patriots — Drake Maye, QB, UNC
Previous Pick: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
If Daniels goes second, the Patriots start to feel the pressure. They need a franchise quarterback with this pick, as owner Robert Kraft will certainly never expect to be picking third overall again in the near future. When debating between the safety of Maye and the risk/reward of McCarthy, Kraft makes his team play it safe.
4. Arizona Cardinals — Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Previous Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Logical landing spot for the best non-quarterback available in this draft. Superb route-runner, blocker, and contested-catch receiver. They could definitely trade this pick for a team desperate to draft McCarthy, but since we don’t project trades, Harrison goes No. 4.
5. Los Angeles Chargers — Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Previous Pick: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
I am sticking with an offensive lineman (over a wide receiver) for the Chargers. Jim Harbaugh prioritizes protecting his quarterback while featuring a strong running game. Alt is 6-foot-8, 315 pounds, and could easily move to right tackle serving as a bookend to left tackle Rashawn Slater.
6. New York Giants — J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
Previous Pick: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
If McCarthy falls this far, the Giants will certainly bite. They need a quarterback after next season, when they can escape the albatross contract for Daniel Jones. McCarthy gives them the franchise quarterback that is so difficult to find.
7. Tennessee Titans — Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Previous Pick: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Everything points to Tennessee selecting an offensive lineman here. The Titans have a young franchise quarterback in Will Levis and will feature a new rushing attack with Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard. They need an offensive tackle and Fashanu is the second-best tackle in the draft behind Joe Alt.
8. Atlanta Falcons — Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
Previous Pick: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
New head coach Raheem Morris stays true to his defensive coordinator pedigree with Atlanta’s first overall pick. I would love to be contrarian here, but the drumbeat for Turner is gathering momentum by the day.
9. Chicago Bears — Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Previous Pick: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
Nabors’ size and explosiveness are too much for the Bears to pass up. His performance at LSU’s pro day had momentum building that he could surpass Harrison as the WR1 in this draft.
10. New York Jets — Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Previous Pick: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
The Jets have tethered their immediate success to a 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers, making offensive line and wide receiver a clear priority at No. 10 overall. I previously mocked an offensive tackle to the Jets but they now land Odunze when he surprisingly falls to No. 10.
11. Minnesota Vikings — Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
Previous Pick: Drake Maye, QB, UNC
Verse’s draft stock has skyrocketed over the past two seasons after he transferred from Albany to Florida State. Strength and speed make Verse the top choice for a Vikings pass rush that ranked 26th in pressure rate last season.
12. Denver Broncos — Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Previous Pick: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
I don’t see Sean Payton using his first-round pick on a quarterback if the top four options are off the board. Denver could possibly grab Bo Nix in Round 2. In a division with Patrick Mahomes, the Broncos pair the explosive Mitchell with Patrick Surtain II.
13. Las Vegas Raiders — Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
Previous Pick: Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
I loved this pick in my last mock, and I love it even more now. The Raiders need a quarterback, especially in a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Can the Raiders really pass on a great deep ball thrower that led Washington to the National Championship game?
14. New Orleans Saints — JC Latham, OT, Alabama
Previous Pick: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
The Saints still have a serviceable quarterback in 32-year-old Derek Carr, but as a result of Odunze going to the Jets at No. 10, New Orleans takes an elite offensive tackle in Alabama’s JC Lathan.
15. Indianapolis Colts — Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Previous Pick: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
The Colts have a franchise quarterback, a solid offensive line and an elite running back. They add an elite athlete at the tight end position to give Anthony Richardson another explosive offensive weapon.
16. Seattle Seahawks — Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
Previous Pick: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
The temptation is there for new head coach Mike Macdonald to use his first draft pick on defense, but the Seahawks need to solidify the interior of their offensive line. Seattle will need to establish a strong ground game similar to Baltimore’s success with Macdonald now on staff. They stay regional with the 6-foot-6, 334-pound Oregon State tackle.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars — Brian Thomas, WR, LSU
Previous Pick: Brian Thomas, WR, LSU
Thomas put on a show at the combine and LSU’s pro day. The speedy wideout becomes the Calvin Ridley replacement in Jacksonville.
The overwhelming position for the Cincinnati pick is now the offensive line. At 6-foot-7, 340 pounds, Mims profiles very close to his former teammate Broderick Jones, who went 14th to Pittsburgh in last year’s draft.
19. Los Angeles Rams — Jackson Powers-Johnson, OL, Oregon
Previous Pick: Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington
The Rams have a first-round draft pick for the first time since 2017, and I’m saying they select the 6-foot-3, 320-pound center from Oregon. This supports Peter Schrager’s “guarantee” for the Rams pick as well.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers — Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington
Previous Pick: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
The 6-foot-4, 319-pound Washington product is a projected left tackle anchor for any NFL team. Either Fautanu or Guyton is a great fit here with prioritized protection for Tua Tagovailoa. How many years does 32-year-old Terron Armstead have left? Steelers just brought Fautanu in for a visit as well.
21. Miami Dolphins — Byron Murphy, DT, Texas
Previous Pick: Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington
Miami needs defensive help and takes advantage when the elite interior defensive lineman falls to them at No. 21.
22. Philadelphia Eagles — Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
Previous Pick: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
DeJean can play both cornerback or safety and is also an accomplished punt returner. The Eagles secondary struggled all season, and Philadelphia drafted DT, LB, and OL with the first three picks last season.
Jared Verse and Jer’Zhan Newton would be quite a hall for the Vikings. If they could get both of these picks, I would actually roll with Sam Darnold at quarterback this season.
24. Dallas Cowboys — Graham Barton, OL, Duke
Previous Pick: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
The textbook Dallas pick is offensive line. Barton played both tackle and center at Duke, fortifying a huge need for the Buccaneers.
25. Green Bay Packers — Tyler Nubin, S, Minnesota
Previous Pick: Patrick Paul, OT, Houston
Local product who was a dominant defensive player against both the pass and run. Had meniscus surgery after the season but is projected to be completely healthy at the start of the season. If not for that injury, he was an automatic Round 1 selection. After eight offensive lineman went, the Packers chose to take the best safety and address that position in Round 2.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
Previous Pick: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
Incredible comeback by Latu after the Washington medical staff considered him “retired.” Those medical concerns linger, and allow one of the best pass rushers in this draft to fall to Tampa Bay.
The Ravens continue to solidify their secondary with the long and explosive Missouri product.
31. San Francisco 49ers — Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
Previous Pick: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
As a result of the volume of offensive linemen selected before this pick, San Francisco takes a pass rusher in Chop Robinson after potentially moving on from Chase Young.
32. Kansas City Chiefs — Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU
Previous Pick: Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon
The smoke about Kansas City taking Suamataia has lessened with the Rashee Rice incident, but I still believe this is a huge target for the Chiefs. The odds on an OL to Kansas City has dropped back to +145. This would be the 10th OL taken in Round 1, which is back up to -185.
