Jayden Daniels vs Caleb Williams
Jay Felicio
When Boston is playing at its best, this version of the Heat doesn’t really have much of a chance. The Celtics have won two games by at least 20 points already, and it took a Herculean effort from Miami in Game 2 to win, shooting the lights out from 3-point range. Through the three games, Jayson Tatum has been fairly consistent, and with the extra playoff minutes, he becomes more of a double-double threat. He’s likely to be less popular than Anthony Davis and LeBron James in the late game, so there is merit to being contrarian and playing Tatum on this slate. Even though his usage in the playoffs is just under 30%, he’s still scoring 1.25 points per minute.
Not to be confused with Nikola Jokic of the Nuggets, Nikola Jovic of the Heat has stepped up in this series. He’s only taken 25 shot attempts, but he’s cleared 30 DK points in two of three games and shot 8-for-15 from beyond the arc. The 65.3% true shooting rate is unsustainable, and even with some hot shooting, he’s still only scoring 0.95 points per minute. However, Jovic is under $5,000 on DK, and even with closing the Game 3 blowout, he was still on track for 30 minutes. I believe trust is probably not the word we want to use for Jovic, but the minutes have come up and the fantasy production is there in addition to Jovic helping with salary.
If you’ve read the previous articles when the Pelicans have been on the slate, I’ve been torn on what to do with Jonas Valanciunas the whole way. In Game 1, he was a monster on the glass and helped generate points by grabbing offensive rebounds. In Game 2, he had a few rebounds just roll off his fingers and struggled mightily as the Thunder got up and down the court. In Game 3, we saw the Pelicans pull the plug on Valanciunas, and I wonder if that’s going to happen again tonight. Valanciunas only played 12 minutes and never saw the floor after halftime when New Orleans was already down 14. Larry Nance Jr. played 29 minutes and just missed a double-double. I think we could see Nance get the start since the Pelicans are on the brink of elimination, but I certainly am not playing Valanciunas in Game 4.
During Game 3 in Los Angeles, the Nuggets made their normal comeback, and there were defensive possessions where Anthony Davis seemed to take off, and LeBron James was yelling at teammates after he turned the ball over. I thought the Lakers looked ready to go home, but Davis was certainly not, recording a massive 25/23 line in the Game 3 win. Davis has been money in the bank for fantasy in this series and part of it (I’ll get roasted for being a homer) is Nikola Jokic has to be careful to not get into foul trouble. If he contests every single Davis field goal attempt at full capacity, Davis is such a talented scorer in the paint that Jokic would foul him often. The Nuggets aren’t winning anything in that scenario, so Davis will have a few easy buckets every night. He might be center-only again on DK, but the combo of Nance and Davis is going to be very appealing.
One of the biggest storylines in this Denver series so far is that aside from the fourth quarter in Game 2, Jamal Murray has not played well at all. He’s shooting 35-for-92 in the series, including 5-for-24 from the 3-point line. One of the main reasons the Nuggets have a 3-1 lead in this series aside from Nikola Jokic is Michael Porter Jr., who is averaging 22 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. Porter is hardly leaving the floor, he’s shooting over 53% from the floor and is making an impact beyond the scoring. The salary just isn’t budging, and I’ve played him in all four games so far. I plan to make it five on this slate.
