NASCAR DFS Archives - Page 3 of 30 - FTN (For The Numbers) - Fantasy Football, DVOA, Betting, DFS

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Texas is the first race of the Round of 12 for the NASCAR Cup Series. Texas is the lone intermediate track in this round with the Roval and Talladega next in line. Texas is historically a track that is difficult to pass, and thus the restarts are very aggressive since it is the best chance for drivers to pass.

The Xfinity race evidenced how chaotic the restarts can be with double-digit cautions in Saturday’s race. The leader has a strong advantage here, and I expect that dominator points will be split between no more than two drivers.

Top Tier

William Byron 35%- Byron has a lot of upside this weekend. He has PD potential as well as dominator potential.
Kyle Larson 30%- Larson should be in the top 3 contending for the win.
Ryan Blaney 27%- Blaney has nearly 20+ place-differential upside.
Denny Hamlin 24%- Hamlin was the most consistent through Round 1 of the playoffs. This track sets up well for him to keep the momentum rolling.
Chase Elliott 22%- Elliott has not looked like the former champion who we are accustomed to seeing on a weekly basis. He has some PD potential with top-5 upside even if the speed did not translate in practice or qualifying.

Middle Tier

Bubba Wallace 31%- Wallace has the benefit of the pole and the inside track to lead the first stage. He has done very well at similar tracks this year.
Brad Keselwoski 30%- Keselowski is in top form, and this is a prime race for him to get his car in victory lane for the first time in two years.
Ross Chastain 24%- Trackhouse seems to have found some of the speed that has been lost for the bulk of the season. Chastain and Suarez should both stick inside the top 12.
Joey Logano/Kevin Harvick 20%- They should both be able to move forward, but I don’t see much beyond the backend of top-10 upside.
Chris Buescher 17%- Buescher has been fantastic over the last couple months. He will likely be lower-owned.

Value Tier

Erik Jones 38%- Jones starting 12th will suppress his ownership, but I think he finishes top 10.
Michael McDowell 26%- McDowell has a fast car and has top-12 runs on similar tracks this year.
Zane Smith 25%- PD play
Corey Lajoie 24%- PD play
Austin Cindric 19%- PD play
AJ Allmendinger 15%- The low-owned GPP buster. Allmendinger should succeed at this track, and I would not be surprised by a top-10 run.

Core

William Byron
Bubba Wallace
Erik Jones

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